GaWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Looks like rainy miller A's are on tap Bob, Do you (or does anyone else) have the DC snowfall for 1877-8, 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, and 1987-8 including the nonwinter months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Bob, Do you (or does anyone else) have the DC snowfall for 1877-8, 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, and 1987-8 including the nonwinter months? Yep, but not 1877-88 1888-9: 12.5 1896-7: 16.2 1905-6: 25.7 1940-1: 17.9 1987-8: 25.0 87-88 is deceiving. We had an absolute freak storm on Veterans Day in Nov. Dropped 11.5 in DC and more in the eastern suburbs. Take that storm out and the year was sub par. Overall not a very encouraging set of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 what site has the Siberian snow cover cam????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Yep, but not 1877-88 1888-9: 12.5 1896-7: 16.2 1905-6: 25.7 1940-1: 17.9 1987-8: 25.0 87-88 is deceiving. We had an absolute freak storm on Veterans Day in Nov. Dropped 11.5 in DC and more in the eastern suburbs. Take that storm out and the year was sub par. Overall not a very encouraging set of years. Bob, Thanks. These DCA amounts averaged 19.5". Isn't that a bit above the 30 year mean and well above the 30 year median? I thought that the mean was near 16" and the median near 12-13". Also, there were no really bad ones. All five were near the median or higher. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/20903-dca-30-yr-median-snowfall/ In contrast, NYC had 4 of 6 well below its median and the average of the 6 was well below its mean at only 24.4" and was near 27" for the most recent 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Bob, Thanks. These DCA amounts averaged 19.5". Isn't that a bit above the 30 year mean and well above the 30 year median? I thought that the mean was near 16" and the median near 12-13". Also, there were no really bad ones. All five were near the median or higher. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/20903-dca-30-yr-median-snowfall/ In contrast, NYC had 4 of 6 well below its median and the average of the 6 was well below its mean at only 24.4" and was near 27" for the most recent 5. idk, the last 2 years sure maxed out on cold so until we get a warm winter to break the streak, I'm not going to worry about analogs going against us (assuming they are against us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 idk, the last 2 years sure maxed out on cold so until we get a warm winter to break the streak, I'm not going to worry about analogs going against us (assuming they are against us)Mitch, Well, as mentioned, they really aren't against you with regard to snow based on the DCA snow stats provided by Bob. Regarding the cold, these years suggest near normal rather than warm. So, a mild, relatively snowless winter would seemingly be unlikely based on these years. A near normal temperaturewise winter with near median to somewhat above average snowfall would seemingly be favored IMO. JB's early feeling is for another quite cold eastern US winter. Whereas I agreed with his cold forecast for last winter and he did well, my initial thoughts are that he's setting himself up for a likely fail for 2015-6 based on what El Niño is doing. A +PDO with a strong Niño usually doesn't result in a widespread cold E US winter like 2014-5. 2009-10 is a rarity and it was helped greatly by a record breaking -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Mitch, Well, as mentioned, they really aren't against you with regard to snow based on the DCA snow stats provided by Bob. Regarding the cold, these years suggest near normal rather than warm. So, a mild, relatively snowless winter would seemingly be unlikely based on these years. A near normal temperaturewise winter with near median to somewhat above average snowfall would seemingly be favored IMO. JB's early feeling is for another quite cold eastern US winter. Whereas I agreed with his cold forecast for last winter and he did well, my initial thoughts are that he's setting himself up for a likely fail for 2015-6 based on what El Niño is doing. A +PDO with a strong Niño usually doesn't result in a widespread cold E US winter like 2014-5. 2009-10 is a rarity and it was helped greatly by a record breaking -AO. Will be interesting to see how this Nino turns out by September/October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Mitch, Well, as mentioned, they really aren't against you with regard to snow based on the DCA snow stats provided by Bob. Regarding the cold, these years suggest near normal rather than warm. So, a mild, relatively snowless winter would seemingly be unlikely based on these years. A near normal temperaturewise winter with near median to somewhat above average snowfall would seemingly be favored IMO. JB's early feeling is for another quite cold eastern US winter. Whereas I agreed with his cold forecast for last winter and he did well, my initial thoughts are that he's setting himself up for a likely fail for 2015-6 based on what El Niño is doing. A +PDO with a strong Niño usually doesn't result in a widespread cold E US winter like 2014-5. 2009-10 is a rarity and it was helped greatly by a record breaking -AO. One thing about the set of analogs you have is that they are so old and the dc measuring location was in a more favorable spot compared to the micro-furnace it's in now. I'm not a big fan of old analogs (pre 1950) because we're in a different background state and live in an area that is almost always sitting on a razor thin margin of error (you can relate down your way lol). OTOH- who really knows? Analogs are only so useful and often even when temps and/or snow seems similar, we got there a different way. ENSO forecasting has been horrific at long leads since 10-11. Although I will say a warm enso event seems more likely than a neutral one at this point. How warm is a tough thing to figure out until we are past the spring barrier and well into summer. And even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 A winter prediction in May that's ends up mostly correct is simply a lucky guess. It's a futile exercise. Heck, a winter forecast in lay November that ends up mostly verifying is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Is it November yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Is it November yet? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Is it November yet? doesn't matter; it'll still probably be 80+ by then in this miserable place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 bump because the summer solstice (unofficial start to winter speculation) is right around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Spring finally decided to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Spring finally decided to show up. I'll take it. Thats only 1 degree above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 I'll take it. Thats only 1 degree above normal Celcius tho, and it's a 3-month mean average. Probs some pretty hefty murky warm days in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 It more probably means absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Above normal temps in the SE in a nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Celcius tho, and it's a 3-month mean average. Probs some pretty hefty murky warm days in there. I recall the CFS forecasting a torch winter as late as November last year. It's not a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 I recall the CFS forecasting a torch winter as late as November last year. It's not a good model.June last year had us within the average range for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Here we go again. I'll get the dart board out and get back to you guys with a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 There you go Mr. Chill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 There you go Mr. Chill! Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yep Hot damn. East coast football games in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Enso 3.4 already +1.4C, so mod-strong to strong NINO almost a lock it seems http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for hopefully we get an early peak, which is what the CFS2 is showing, and then a fairly rapid decline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 i'm hoping for an above average winter in terms of temps, more sun, and less wind than the previous 2 winters, with 1 big snowstorm thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 i'm hoping for an above average winter in terms of temps, more sun, and less wind than the previous 2 winters, with 1 big snowstorm thrown in. Absolutely not. I want BWI to break its all-time coldest temp and record skin-burning wind chills while feet of snow pile up November through April. I want there to be days and days of sub-freezing temps, Bay ice thick enough to drive over, and snow depths reaching uncharted territory. 100"+ or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 my early call is we get one more decent winter and then the wheels fall off and it's back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 click on the forecast for November under NINO 3.4 Outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 click on the forecast for November under NINO 3.4 Outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean 97-98 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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