WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The latest 45 day euro ens run continues the wet theme with higher probability wintry chances holding off until after the first week of Jan. Makes sense given the way things have gone so far. Ens mean precip for 45 days in now over 6" for the area. Temps don't really start looking good until the 10th of Jan and beyond. I have no idea how useful the product is. First year I've seen it. Just relaying what it shows. I'm going to go ahead and interpret this post as saying cold and snowy after Christmas............maybe historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I'm going to go ahead and interpret this post as saying cold and snowy after Christmas............maybe historic. Me too. Ens mean snowfall for my yard is 5+" and your yard is 7+". We can just hug that for now until it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Me too. Ens mean snowfall for my yard is 5+" and your yard is 7+". We can just hug that for now until it gets better. December is 21 days of calendar Fall anyway...so who cares if it dosent snow in the late fall. I would take my chance on a 86-87 winter lol. Donald sutherland wrote a poem that i cancelled winter but its bull crap. I never cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 My prelim Jancast. Have at it, jumpers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 My prelim Jancast. Have at it, jumpers. I agree Ian. The stratosphere looks beyond horrific right now and the forecasts all the way out to January keep it that way, if the vortex is to break down it is going to take a long time to do so. Also, there looks to be no break in the AK vortex/+EPO and troughs wanting to dig in the west right through early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just stronger Ninos warm Januarys. Decent match for the long-average CFS image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 ^^^^ STJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 ^^^^ STJ! It's gotta show up eventually. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 ^^^^ STJ! Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's gotta show up eventually. Maybe. Bringing us ALL the 50F rain. Boom! cfsboom.JPG JB's onto something. I'm tellin' ya. Or maybe on something. Something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Bringing us ALL the 50F rain. JB's onto something. I'm tellin' ya. Or maybe on something. Something like that. JB is about to wave the white flag on his forecast, sensing panic from him today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Warm Jan isn't necessarily a killer. Often we're 'too cold'/suppressed in Jan for good snow it seems. Tho none of the warm Jan strong Ninos were that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Warm Jan isn't necessarily a killer. Often we're 'too cold'/suppressed in Jan for good snow it seems. Tho none of the warm Jan strong Ninos were that good. Yeah. A +1 for January doesn't necessarily kill decent snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just stronger Ninos warm Januarys. Decent match for the long-average CFS image. Ian, in your research, did any of the strong and very strong Ninos with warm Januaries flip to colder in February or did they all stay warm? I've pretty much written off March as sucking, based on what I found historically with strong and very strong Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Ian, in your research, did any of the strong and very strong Ninos with warm Januaries flip to colder in February or did they all stay warm? I've pretty much written off March as sucking, based on what I found historically with strong and very strong Ninos 2/83 had BN temps at BWI....but I'm not Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 DT released his final winter forecast. Looks like the first half of December could be much above normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Ian, in your research, did any of the strong and very strong Ninos with warm Januaries flip to colder in February or did they all stay warm? I've pretty much written off March as sucking, based on what I found historically with strong and very strong Ninos These four Ninos (two are not strong) had solid flips from warmer DJ than normal to colder F than normal. Could have included one more that was nearer normal but I used +/- 1.5 deg from current norms. Of course current norms are so warm there aren't a huge ton of warm Febs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Interestingly it's not that wet of a signal. I guess because only Feb is conducive to big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Interestingly it's not that wet of a signal. I guess because only Feb is conducive to big storms. Never have really trusted those maps. I guess it's how the data is collected, but you often see well above and well below border each other. Just doesn't seem to paint a meaningful picture sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Never have really trusted those maps. I guess it's how the data is collected, but you often see well above and well below border each other. Just doesn't seem to paint a meaningful picture sometimes. Yeah I dunno. Mixing years and combining months prob creates a few oddities too. These maps look OK to me in general though. BTW, here's the temps. Of course caveat that I dunno if we should plan on this winter following any sort of scheme a weak nino did. Or that we'll get a warm J.. or cold F for that matter -- though I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? I don't know but DCA ended up the season with 10.1" of snow. Only Feb was colder than normal and it was 4.7 degrees below normal if I did the math correctly. Jan and Feb had almost equal amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? For me here- Jan +2.6 6.7 of snow, wet month 5.58 Feb -2.5 5.0 of snow, 1.98 Mar +3.1 3.4 of snow, 1.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? Winchester numbers: January: Highest recorded temp 68 Average monthly High temp 41.4 Total Precip 5.5 inches Total snow 4.3 inches February: Highest recorded temp 63 Average monthly high temp 41.3 Total precip 3.75 Total snow 7.4 inches (all from one storm Feb 3rd) March: I have no data for March 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? In Jersey, which isn't too far away... December snowless January had one slushy inch, otherwise snowless February had a KU, 14" March snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? For me growing up in Glen Burnie I only remember one big storm in Feb. - "The storm of '95" was all over the news. Don't ever remember it being cold or anything. That year was sandwiched between the two epic winters of my childhood- '94 and '96. Looking at the BWI records there was 7.2" on 2/4/95 (a daily record)- that was basically the only snow the entire winter other than a few cartoppers. Edit: I should probably add that I'd be very happy with a '95 type winter- give me one good 5+" event and I consider it a win in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Quick question for the folks who lived here............what was JFM of 1995 like in this area? I had a 10 incher on feb 3-4, it was an energetic clipper type storm that rolled in from the west including some lightning. But the snowfall for the season was a measly 13 inches which is pretty bad for my location which averages ~ 35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 For me growing up in Glen Burnie I only remember one big storm in Feb. - "The storm of '95" was all over the news. Don't ever remember it being cold or anything. That year was sandwiched between the two epic winters of my childhood- '94 and '96. Looking at the BWI records there was 7.2" on 2/4/95 (a daily record)- that was basically the only snow the entire winter other than a few cartoppers. Edit: I should probably add that I'd be very happy with a '95 type winter- give me one good 5+" event and I consider it a win in this region. Were you a Gopher? Cougar here.... 2002 graduate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Were you a Gopher? Cougar here.... 2002 graduate Nice lob. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Nice lob. Enjoy. Okay, RR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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