mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Right. There is no sign of overwhelming cold that suppresses the SJS. If December ends up for arguments sake at +3, the CANSIPS suggests a D-F of around 0 to -1 total anomaly, which would put in in relative agreement with the JMA in our area. Normal climate model caveats apply. Add to that the Euro and Eurosips. CFS2 is the only torch, but it has been consistent with a very wet February, which would be very nice climo-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The euro weeklies look really sad, week 4 the AO remains really positive. The Euro monthly progs show a pretty good pattern for Feb and a slightly warm but not atrocious pattern for Jan. If the euro weekly is correct for week 4 it's hard to see early January being very good though that far into the future, the Euro weeklies could be way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Wes, from what I've seen the last few years, the weeklies are hit and miss. They did well last year with the AO though. Never really showed much promise there and it verified. Since they are just an extension of the 0z ensemble run they can be a little jumpy. Basically, the weeklies roll forward from d15 of the ensembles so if they are more wrong than right then the weeklies are usually even wronger. lol. With that being said, no blocking seems pretty obvious until something breaks there. And the low height anoms in the conus being focused out west seems like a fair forecast as well. Weather is never static like that though. I'm just hoping at the very least between now and the end of the month we get a modest pna + epo ridge even if transient. At least put us in the game for a long shot. Door to door futility of a winter month gets on my nerves. Last Dec sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Add to that the Euro and Eurosips. CFS2 is the only torch, but it has been consistent with a very wet February, which would be very nice climo-wise. CANSIPS are showing a relatively dry February, which I thought was interesting. It's showing cold and wet for January, which would be a pleasant shock, in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 God help us if this year is a fail. Looking down the line to the virtually certain NINA of next year, and probably the year after that, we run the risk of some pretty awful winters. And please, someone bump this if my suspicions turn out to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 God help us if this year is a fail. Looking down the line to the virtually certain NINA of next year, and probably the year after that, we run the risk of some pretty awful winters. And please, someone bump this if my suspicions turn out to be wrong. What makes you say a Nina is virtually certain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 What makes you say a Nina is virtually certain? every lr model I have seen (Euro, CFS2, JAMSTEC, POMA) have ENSO 3.4 below 0 come June/July of next year heading colder into the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 God help us if this year is a fail. Looking down the line to the virtually certain NINA of next year, and probably the year after that, we run the risk of some pretty awful winters. And please, someone bump this if my suspicions turn out to be wrong. IDK Mitch. I kinda liked the past three winters. They were basically neutrals, but the two prior to last year were on the cold side of neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 every lr model I have seen (Euro, CFS2, JAMSTEC, POMA) have ENSO 3.4 below 0 come June/July of next year heading colder into the fall Do any of those models even have any skill that far out? I have a hard time believing that's a lock. If we get a weak La Nina the year after an El Nino the 95/96 comparisons will start coming in anyway. We'd also be due for our 7 year HECS, so I'd say I'm ok with a weak La Nina next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 every lr model I have seen (Euro, CFS2, JAMSTEC, POMA) have ENSO 3.4 below 0 come June/July of next year heading colder into the fall Almost every big Nino has been followed by a Nina as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 IDK Mitch. I kinda liked the past three winters. They were basically neutrals, but the two prior to last year were on the cold side of neutral. last year was as close as you can get to a weak NINO but not officially making it and the prior year was a La Nada, so those points I see but next year, as it now looks, has ENSO temps dropping through the summer, which is a whole new look that I do not cherish from the last 2 winters hey, hopefully I'm wrong on my statement that a NINA is virtually certain (didn't say absolutely certain) and temps flatten out, but the look of the climate models suggest ENSO keeps falling through the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Almost every big Nino has been followed by a Nina as well. another good reason to believe a NINA's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Almost every big Nino has been followed by a Nina as well. I'd be totally fine with a weak nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Do any of those models even have any skill that far out? I have a hard time believing that's a lock. If we get a weak La Nina the year after an El Nino the 95/96 comparisons will start coming in anyway. We'd also be due for our 7 year HECS, so I'd say I'm ok with a weak La Nina next year. That's a good point. IIRC, in the spring of 2014, many of them were predicting a NINO for last winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 That's a good point. IIRC, in the spring of 2014, many of them were predicting a NINO for last winter.. Last winter was pretty close to a Nino. Of course the talk was super nino and the models were way overdone. But it's pretty clear still that you tend to see Nina after a big Nino. Not a given but worth considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 That's a good point. IIRC, in the spring of 2014, many of them were predicting a NINO for last winter.. Last winter was pretty close to a Nino. Of course the talk was super nino and the models were way overdone. But it's pretty clear still that you tend to see Nina after a big Nino. Not a given but worth considering. We've had decent luck with a La Nada after a mod or strong NINO, but the NINA's (-.5C or less for 5 or more tri-monthly) have not been decent. Winterwx, here's what I'm basing it off of in case you were wondering. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 That's a good point. IIRC, in the spring of 2014, many of them were predicting a NINO for last winter.. Another ENSO model fail, if I remember right, was during 2012 where the models were all predicting an El Nino for the 12/13 winter... didn't happen, ended up cold neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Is the EURO predicting a NINO or a NINA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Is the EURO predicting a NINO or a NINA? That info is actually free...lol http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2015110100,0,2015110100&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 delayed not denied..lol https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 delayed not denied..lol https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I guess a good forecast covers everything conceivable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 A weak Nina isn't bad, but mod-strong means kiss snow goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 A weak Nina isn't bad, but mod-strong means kiss snow goodbye We'll get a Nina wth stout -AO and -NAO, and we'll be Miller B central. Bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 God help us if this year is a fail. Looking down the line to the virtually certain NINA of next year, and probably the year after that, we run the risk of some pretty awful winters. And please, someone bump this if my suspicions turn out to be wrong. The hurricanes will be rockin' though. Summer severe should take an uptick too. You see, there are always pluses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Godzilla Nino https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/672204185321013248 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 God help us if this year is a fail. Looking down the line to the virtually certain NINA of next year, and probably the year after that, we run the risk of some pretty awful winters. And please, someone bump this if my suspicions turn out to be wrong. Not necessarily. If I recall, The winter of 2010-2011 was a La Nina winter, which followed the moderate El Nino of 2009-2010. The lag in the pattern caused the southern stream to still be fairly active in December of 2010, and that month rocked in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Granted, it's not a totally solid connection. There was also a lot of blocking. But still, the southern stream was still active and hadn't quite shifted out of the El Nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Not necessarily. If I recall, The winter of 2010-2011 was a La Nina winter, which followed the moderate El Nino of 2009-2010. The lag in the pattern caused the southern stream to still be fairly active in December of 2010, and that month rocked in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Granted, it's not a totally solid connection. There was also a lot of blocking. But still, the southern stream was still active and hadn't quite shifted out of the El Nino pattern. 2010-2011 should probably not be mentioned here. It featured below normal snowfall at BWI, IAD, DCA and RIC. Meanwhile, New England was clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 2010-2011 should probably not be mentioned here. It featured below normal snowfall at BWI, IAD, DCA and RIC. Meanwhile, New England was clobbered. NYC and northern half of NJ clobbered too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 NYC and northern half of NJ clobbered too. I know, but for some reason this sub forum seems to be more envious of New England, hence why I mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 ERSST v4 will be adjusted to 1.8 for ASO and either 2.0 or 2.1 for SON...formidable October adjusted up big time...from 1.85 to 2.03 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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