Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[aldie 22]

Watching it rain in Green Bay last night sure felt like a bad sign even if it may be normal for the end of November up there

[Ian]

About 1" below normal for DCA this mo. Doubt too many were going with that. Could pick up a bit more though before we close.  Drier strongish Ninos seem to have no real pattern.   Tho for the 2009 hanger ons.. there were 7 days with 0.25"+ rain that mo and 2 so far this mo. 7 in 1997 as well tho...

 

[mattie g]

Cohen is so oversold. There are way better long rangers here who don't have fangirls.

Bashing Cohen seems to be the thing to do among the cool kids over at americanwx.

[Amped]

Cohen is so oversold. There are way better long rangers here who don't have fangirls.

I'm hugging the theory with the most snow.

[snowman19]

Bashing Cohen seems to be the thing to do among the cool kids over at americanwx.

Cohen gave himself a way out of his -AO forecast for D-M by saying how strong the El Niño is and that the AO may not matter, he went on to say that if this ends up being +AO winter or if the Nino overwhelms, it will be a mild to very mild winter

[mattie g]

Cohen gave himself a way out of his -AO forecast for D-M by saying how strong the El Niño is and that the AO may not matter, he went on to say that if this ends up being +AO winter or if the Nino overwhelms, it will be a mild to very mild winter

So he's acknowledging that his method may not have a 100% accuracy rate and is providing the reasons why his official call may not pan out. Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[mitchnick]

So he's acknowledging that his method may not have a 100% accuracy rate and is providing the reasons why his official call may not pan out. Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Grading Cohen this year definitely has to wait. He went with 28" for Dca and AN snowfall for much of the rest of the east coast. Now if DCA and the rest of the east coast forecast fails, then as long as he acknowledges failure and says my musings after the forecast were right, fine. But if claims he warned of a failed forecast or tries to claim he went BN snowfall, he's officially full of shiat in my book.

[BristowWx]

Let's say we get some crazy historic storm that gives us 2 feet but the rest of the winter is wall to wall warm is that a win or fail? We can still be way above normal temps but one fluke storm gets us at or above climo...maybe with a few minor car toppers

[WinterWxLuvr]

Let's say we get some crazy historic storm that gives us 2 feet but the rest of the winter is wall to wall warm is that a win or fail? We can still be way above normal temps but one fluke storm gets us at or above climo...maybe with a few minor car toppers

A monumental fail IMO

[snowman19]

So he's acknowledging that his method may not have a 100% accuracy rate and is providing the reasons why his official call may not pan out. Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Don S just posted in the NYC forum that the prospects for a predominantly +AO winter are increasing. If that is the case, we are in big trouble. We would once again have to hope for a -EPO and cross-polar flow into Canada, good luck getting a sustained -EPO with a super El Niño in place. Otherwise, like we see now, the +EPO floodgates open and Canada gets overrun with Pacific maritime air. Don also mentioned that the +PDO should continue which would allow for more +PNA, however, I don't see it being of much benefit with a +EPO and a bad source region. At that point even a -NAO wouldn't help, it would just get steamrolled by the Pacific signal, not that we would be able to get a sustained -NAO anyway, we haven't been able to buy one

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Why do people have it out for Cohen? It makes no sense.

He has a track record thats about as good as Joe Bastardi and Justin Berk. The few times he is right, its usually for the wrong reasons (like last winter) and he tries to spin it like thats what he called for all along.

He comes across as very arrogant and that's why he's frequently called out here.

[clskinsfan]

Let's say we get some crazy historic storm that gives us 2 feet but the rest of the winter is wall to wall warm is that a win or fail? We can still be way above normal temps but one fluke storm gets us at or above climo...maybe with a few minor car toppers

 

This is what a lot of the snow forecasts have to be based on for this winter. I went very low in the snow totals contest. Because we are not going to get nickle and dime type storms this year. But It really only takes one monster storm for some people to make their forecasts. And I had the feeling at the end of last winter that we are just due for a poor winter. Going over climo 3 years in a row would shock me. I will most likely be wrong. But the December pattern that is shaping up is quite pathetic.

 

Edit: And if we go snowless in December again this year. It would be the first time in my records of that happening in back to back Decembers. Not that it mattered with the end results last winter. The second half of winter last year was fantastic.

[famartin]

This is what a lot of the snow forecasts have to be based on for this winter. I went very low in the snow totals contest. Because we are not going to get nickle and dime type storms this year. But It really only takes one monster storm for some people to make their forecasts. And I had the feeling at the end of last winter that we are just due for a poor winter. Going over climo 3 years in a row would shock me. I will most likely be wrong. But the December pattern that is shaping up is quite pathetic.

 

Edit: And if we go snowless in December this year. It would be the first time in my records of that happening. Not that it mattered with the end results last winter. The second half of winter last year was fantastic.

 

This "climo for 3 years in a row would be shocking" is not a valid point.

 

DCA climo 15.5"

BWI climo 20.2"

IAD climo 22.0"

 

At DCA, it was ~5" or more above the current normal 3 winters in a row several times: Late 70s (77-78, 78-79, 79-80), mid-late 60s (65-66, 66-67, 67-68), mid-late 40s (45-46, 46-47, 47-48), early-mid 30s (32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37), etc.  Its very doable.  Its actually been a surprisingly long time since its happened.

 

At BWI, its not as frequent:  Early 60s (59-60, 60-61, 61-62), early-mid 30s (32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37)... definitely harder.

 

At IAD, the stats are similar to DCA:  Late 70s (77-78, 78-79, 79-80), mid-late 60s (65-66, 66-67, 67-68). 

 

If I pushed the criteria back to anything above the current normal 3-years running, you get a few more.

 

Anyway, point being, its not impossible, in fact its happened before.

[clskinsfan]

This "climo for 3 years in a row would be shocking" is not a valid point.

 

DCA climo 15.5"

BWI climo 20.2"

IAD climo 22.0"

 

At DCA, it was ~5" or more above the current normal 3 winters in a row several times: Late 70s (77-78, 78-79, 79-80), mid-late 60s (65-66, 66-67, 67-68), mid-late 40s (45-46, 46-47, 47-48), early-mid 30s (32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37), etc.  Its very doable.  Its actually been a surprisingly long time since its happened.

 

At BWI, its not as frequent:  Early 60s (59-60, 60-61, 61-62), early-mid 30s (32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37)... definitely harder.

 

At IAD, the stats are similar to DCA:  Late 70s (77-78, 78-79, 79-80), mid-late 60s (65-66, 66-67, 67-68). 

 

If I pushed the criteria back to anything above the current normal 3-years running, you get a few more.

 

Anyway, point being, its not impossible, in fact its happened before.

 

Thanks for the info. I was only alive for the ones in the 70's. But I was young so I wasnt keeping stats. So 3 years in a row over climo has happened once in my 47 years of life. Not impossible. But not common either.

[famartin]

Thanks for the info. I was only alive for the ones in the 70's. But I was young so I wasnt keeping stats. So 3 years in a row over climo has happened once in my 47 years of life. Not impossible. But not common either.

Not common, no. But if it happens, it shouldn't "shock" anyone.  Shocking is like seeing 5" of snow at DC in October

[mattie g]

Don S just posted in the NYC forum that the prospects for a predominantly +AO winter are increasing. If that is the case, we are in big trouble. We would once again have to hope for a -EPO and cross-polar flow into Canada, good luck getting a sustained -EPO with a super El Niño in place. Otherwise, like we see now, the +EPO floodgates open and Canada gets overrun with Pacific maritime air. Don also mentioned that the +PDO should continue which would allow for more +PNA, however, I don't see it being of much benefit with a +EPO and a bad source region. At that point even a -NAO wouldn't help, it would just get steamrolled by the Pacific signal, not that we would be able to get a sustained -NAO anyway, we haven't been able to buy one

Of course the odds of a predominately +AO winter are increasing - the AO is well positive now and it looks to remain so for a while. But that doesn't mean that the AO can't go negative for a good chunk of the winter - a month of massive +AO can easily outweigh six weeks of -AO and a couple weeks of neutral or slight positive AO, and it doesn't mean that winter is shot.

I'm just starting to tire of hearing people get all bent out of shape or making half-references to a crappy winter just because weeklies don't look good during a period of winter that most people fully expected would suck anyways. A few weeks will generally make or break winter around here, and given that we're still in November I don't quite get the angst.

I may need to take a break from posting for a bit because I'm likely to piss someone off sooner rather than later!

[famartin]

I may need to take a break from posting for a bit because I'm likely to piss someone off sooner rather than later!

That's probably a good idea for anyone who is here solely for winter... there won't be any for a while.  Take a break.

[mattie g]

That's probably a good idea for anyone who is here solely for winter... there won't be any for a while. Take a break.

Wait, wait...I'm here year round!

Whether that's a good thing or not, well...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Of course the odds of a predominately +AO winter are increasing - the AO is well positive now and it looks to remain so for a while. But that doesn't mean that the AO can't go negative for a good chunk of the winter - a month of massive +AO can easily outweigh six weeks of -AO and a couple weeks of neutral or slight positive AO, and it doesn't mean that winter is shot.

I'm just starting to tire of hearing people get all bent out of shape or making half-references to a crappy winter just because weeklies don't look good during a period of winter that most people fully expected would suck anyways. A few weeks will generally make or break winter around here, and given that we're still in November I don't quite get the angst.

I may need to take a break from posting for a bit because I'm likely to piss someone off sooner rather than later!

This is pretty much my thinking. I'm sure Don is not trying to suggest punting winter if we have a predominantly +AO/NAO for the DJF(M) period as a whole. Sounds like if we go through Dec with a solidly +AO/NAO then sure the odds are the seasonal value will average out positive. But as you say, if we get a period of good blocking from, say, later Jan through much of Feb or early Mar...I'd like the odds of scoring something good. If I understood several winter forecasts correctly, that's sort of in line with what they said...i.e., more of a back-loaded winter. Thus far, I don't think the indications for the first part of Dec are all that unexpected.

Again I think of 2006-07 (or even this past winter). That year had a DJF departure warmer than normal as I recall, despite a -8 departure at DCA in Feb 07. And like I said several times that wasn't the greatest winter but was close to being quite good. It ended up very interesting all the same.

Now of course I'm not saying we won't end up with crap for winter in the end but just that right now it's a bit much to assume that, if a certain index in the mean for 3 months is unfavorable.

[mattie g]

Exactly my line of thinking, Zug!

[EastCoast NPZ]

Thanks for the info. I was only alive for the ones in the 70's. But I was young so I wasnt keeping stats. So 3 years in a row over climo has happened once in my 47 years of life. Not impossible. But not common either.

 

We are already on a 3 year streak, I believe, unless my memory has really failed me. I think I recorded about 30" in '12-'13.  Looks like the odds for 4 in a row are significantly worse.

[famartin]

We are already on a 3 year streak, I believe, unless my memory has really failed me. I think I recorded about 30" in '12-'13.  Looks like the odds for 4 in a row are significantly worse.

Your area probably averages about 30, so by the definition I used, you can't really call it 3 in a row.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-snow-avg.gif

Certainly areas closer to 95 didn't have 3 above yet. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Your area probably averages about 30, so by the definition I used, you can't really call it 3 in a row.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-snow-avg.gif

Certainly areas closer to 95 didn't have 3 above yet.

md-snow-avg.gif

The previous two were easily over climo. My 2012-13 was 33.5 I believe. I'm not exactly sure of my climo but it's probably 30-35. So its splitting hairs at this pt. We have been at or above for 3 straight is how I will leave it.

[clskinsfan]

The previous two were easily over climo. My 2012-13 was 33.5 I believe. I'm not exactly sure of my climo but it's probably 30-35. So its splitting hairs at this pt. We have been at or above for 3 straight is how I will leave it.

 

Yeah. I was an inch short of climo for 12-13. So some of us certainly could have hit it the past 3 years.

[Ian]

Weeklies don't look too great. Nearer term pattern looks to be trying to build back in in week 4 but no raging +NAO at least. I wonder if we'll even get the slightly better look in the end.

[Bob Chill]

Weeklies don't look too great. Nearer term pattern looks to be trying to build back in in week 4 but no raging +NAO at least. I wonder if we'll even get the slightly better look in the end.

 

I just looked at them. Weeks 3-4 look to waffle back and forth with low heights out west. It's like almost good in nw canada/ak at times but nothing special. 

 

Not a torch at least. And would imply an active southern storm track. The ski resorts in the southern rockies certainly approve of the run. lol. 

[Ian]

I just looked at them. Weeks 3-4 look to waffle back and forth with low heights out west. It's like almost good in nw canada/ak at times but nothing special.

Not a torch at least. And would imply an active southern storm track. The ski resorts in the southern rockies certainly approve of the run. lol.

Yeah it's not the worst. Perhaps I'm extrapolating at the end. Looked at wxbell should do that first.. Weekly avg on SV hides some things. I suppose active is a good start..

Let's make this seem like a nino around here.

[nflwxman]

The new Canadian Climate model (CANSIPS) has updated for December. It shows what appears to be a solid J-F period at the upper levels for snow lovers.  Jan and Feb both have a strong undercutting jet with most of the warmth bottled up in the source region.  It may even show (gasp) some signs of a -NAO.  

 

The JMA and CANSIPS has had a pretty solid track record the last few years.  Being that the CFSv2 is the only major climate model now showing an extended torch well into the heart of the winter (Jan 15-March 1), I think it's fair to weight it less (as I believe the CPC did)

[Bob Chill]

The new Canadian Climate model (CANSIPS) has updated for December. It shows what appears to be a solid J-F period at the upper levels for snow lovers. Jan and Feb both have a strong undercutting jet with most of the warmth bottled up in the source region. It may even show (gasp) some signs of a -NAO.

The JMA and CANSIPS has had a pretty solid track record the last few years. Being that the CFSv2 is the only major climate model now showing an extended torch well into the heart of the winter (Jan 15-March 1), I think it's fair to weight it less (as I believe the CPC did)

I'd take my chances with that Jan look all day long. No doubt an active pattern from the southern tier coast to coast up through our area.

[nflwxman]

I'd take my chances with that Jan look all day long. No doubt an active pattern from the southern tier coast to coast up through our area.

Right.  There is no sign of overwhelming cold that suppresses the SJS.  If December ends up for arguments sake at +3, the CANSIPS suggests a D-F of around 0 to -1 total anomaly, which would put in in relative agreement with the JMA in our area.

 

Normal climate model caveats apply.