mappy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 SERIOUSLY???!!!! its not bad enough that we have to put up with nonsense posts about how it cant stick because its March or November or it was warm the day before, whatever, but now you really are implying that because its very warm in November that it cant snow all winter unless its at night? You need an intervention! can I bump this when you worry about a fringe event the jackpots our neck of the woods... mainly the intervention part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I would nominate that guy who implied that daylight savings time would make it harder to snow because of the extra hour of light in the day a few years ago. That was a classic. Another group of nominees are the ones who get upset over not getting a warning, as if that's what determines snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That was a classic. Another group of nominees are the ones who get upset over not getting a warning, as if that's what determines snowfall. the guy who said snow wouldn't accumulate well on the weekends because more cars were on the road, was pretty hilarious too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 can I bump this when you worry about a fringe event the jackpots our neck of the woods... mainly the intervention part Oh I am not immune to breakdowns and fits of temporary insanity, we all have our issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Two things I feel are more likely than random chance -- a very warm spell setting daily records in either DEC or JAN and possibly one in each, and a good FEB snowstorm or maybe two. March will continue to provide wintry scenarios. This is not to rule out other winter events between the early warm spells, it does look like a potentially high variability pattern more than a non-stop Pacific dominated 97-98 type of scenario. Best analogues for me are 82-83 and 1905-06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Roger...I think that's a solid line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Coastalwx from the NE forum said that yesterday's run of the Eurosip ensemble package, which has a better track record than the Euro model alone, has a better 5H setup than last month with the Aleutian Low for the D-F period. If you recall, 97/98 had the mean 5H Low much farther east, which flooded the conus with warm, PAC air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Coastalwx from the NE forum said that yesterday's run of the Eurosip ensemble package, which has a better track record than the Euro model alone, has a better 5H setup than last month with the Aleutian Low for the D-F period. If you recall, 97/98 had the mean 5H Low much farther east, which flooded the conus with warm, PAC air. This is why lol'd when diehard weenies (let alone any taggers) have the notion to write off anything in Oct/Nov. Everyone here knows the variables involved....hence why speaking in absolutes is risky business..especially so early. The weather has proven to be the winner (or loser depending on your perspective) too many times....like last year maybe? Its unfortunate when biases get in the way of good forecasting skills and is very evident who does it. You don't need a met degree to see through it. Lets call it a disservice to the badge.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 3.4 up to +3C now.. highest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 This is why lol'd when diehard weenies (let alone any taggers) have the notion to write off anything in Oct/Nov. Everyone here knows the variables involved....hence why speaking in absolutes is risky business..especially so early. The weather has proven to be the winner (or loser depending on your perspective) too many times....like last year maybe? Its unfortunate when biases get in the way of good forecasting skills and is very evident who does it. You don't need a met degree to see through it. Lets call it a disservice to the badge.... Nut I agree completely with you. There are no good forecasting skills for weather months in advance. If you forecast -2 to +2 on temps (which is negligible when you consider it in the context of day to day weather) for Dec-Mar, you have a great chance to nail that. If you say snowfall at 75 - 125% of normal, you're gonna be good most times on that one, too. Have people learned nothing from the past two years? Where are the people who predicted those winters correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 This is why lol'd when diehard weenies (let alone any taggers) have the notion to write off anything in Oct/Nov. Everyone here knows the variables involved....hence why speaking in absolutes is risky business..especially so early. The weather has proven to be the winner (or loser depending on your perspective) too many times....like last year maybe? Its unfortunate when biases get in the way of good forecasting skills and is very evident who does it. You don't need a met degree to see through it. Lets call it a disservice to the badge.... Nut TBH, I was fighting the temptation to speak in absolutes in the other direction. I think you guys get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Siberian snowman update https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Siberian snowman update https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Get-out-of-jail-free line: However complicating the forecast, we also have one of the strongest observed El Niños ongoing that is predicted to last through the winter, though recent model forecasts show a dramatic decline in strength through the winter months. El Niño is thought to force milder winters across the extratopical Northern Hemisphere. It remains challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 TBH, I was fighting the temptation to speak in absolutes in the other direction. I think you guys get smoked. To be honest man, its not been terrible down here in the piedmont regions the last couple years. I grew up in some lean years, and climo wise know that we often sit in a tough spot in a good year (save the last few). As I've been reading what many of you put out and absorbing, it sounds like a few have suggested the same about the mid/north atlantic regions once again getting some love from above snow wise. Coming off of a Nino like we are is a tricky postion in lower latitudes....and I've been around long enough to see them fail to drop off as advertised and not give us the backloaded winter that one would expect given the signs were currently seeing. The realist in me still feels that I'd rather be up your way...especially if the -NAO that is sounding like a more distinct possibllity (lets hope Iso's methodology holds serve)....doesnt show up. We'll be plenty wet while you and points west get smoked. For now, I'll be happy to see the winter cancel posts at least turn to winter maybe. Thanks to all of you for the great insight you offer. Great stuff. If I knew folks like you guys were in the weather business..i'da signed my papers to go to PSU and get a met degree. I'll just enjoy it as a hobby all the same. Good luck with your calls gang. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Siberian snowman update https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Reading this in its entirety was like a flashback to old school Larry Cosgrove discussions. Except curiously, all references to current weather conditions in the Sonoran Desert and how they would effect the sensible weather here were omitted in their entirety. Someone should really clue Cohen in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Weeklies look pretty good. By mid Dec there's a great -epo/split flow look with trough in the SE. BN temps too. Trough south of the Aleutians w/ ridge eastern GOA up into Canada/AK. Hard to get mad at this run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Weeklies look pretty good. By mid Dec there's a great -epo/split flow look with trough in the SE. BN temps too. Trough south of the Aleutians w/ ridge eastern GOA up into Canada/AK. Hard to get mad at this run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is a decent long lead h5 look. Weeklies start off Dec cool then relax and reload. PNA is positive the whole first half of Dec and EPO is neg from the end of the first week of Dec through the end of the run. Definitely not a pattern that would flood the conus with unabated pac flow. If this is where we are around the middle of Dec then it's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I hate to be Debbie Downer but that pattern would flood the conus with Pacific air unless you guys invade fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Roger, when I see ridging up through bc and ak I always envision continental hp building in w central Canada. It may be above normal temp wise in Canada but for us folks in the MA the odds favor normal to BN temps when those hp's push our way. The mean look is not zonal. That's a death knell for us even in the cold blue heart of climo. I'm fine with that plot I posted. It's not perfect at all but far from anything to sweat over. My biggest concerns about Dec is have a really nasty pattern that will take a lot of work to get right. The weeklies are a positive sign in the very muddy waters of long lead guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have a mitchnick bone: tornadoes today in KS were furthest west this late in year during El Nino since Nov 1963. 50" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have a mitchnick bone: tornadoes today in KS were furthest west this late in year during El Nino since Nov 1963. 50" for you. Funny that's what he is doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have a mitchnick bone: tornadoes today in KS were furthest west this late in year during El Nino since Nov 1963. 50" for you.You're such a wimp. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 JMA is a fan of February: I'd take this in January, too: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nino appears to be asserting itself now. Lots of Ninos showing up on CPC d8 & 11+. A couple notable dates and/or years on today's d11+. lol. First week of Dec could be prime to knock the dust off the tracking handbook. I wouldn't be surprised to have something inside of 7 days on the models give us a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I pulled the Nino years showing up on CPC right now: 1952 1972 1982 1986 2002 2006 2009 4 out of the 7 had good blocking in Dec (and the balance of winter). 82-83 was a late bloomer with blocking and still snowed in Dec. 52-53 had good blocking but was a total dud here regardless. The only real takeaway is the fact that numerous Ninos are showing up right now. Anything is on the table for Dec imo. I'm glad to see that at the very least the beginning of Dec isn't looking warm or tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I pulled the Nino years showing up on CPC right now: 1952 1972 1982 1986 2002 2006 2009 4 out of the 7 had good blocking in Dec (and the balance of winter). 82-83 was a late bloomer with blocking and still snowed in Dec. 52-53 had good blocking but was a total dud here regardless. The only real takeaway is the fact that numerous Ninos are showing up right now. Anything is on the table for Dec imo. I'm glad to see that at the very least the beginning of Dec isn't looking warm or tragic. That 72 analog can't be one to jump up and down about. I think we could all probably live with 86, 02, 09 though...........not being picky or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nino appears to be asserting itself now. Lots of Ninos showing up on CPC d8 & 11+. A couple notable dates and/or years on today's d11+. lol. First week of Dec could be prime to knock the dust off the tracking handbook. I wouldn't be surprised to have something inside of 7 days on the models give us a tease. cpcana.JPG Interesting...I see the two famous December 5 events are in there (among other intriguing dates/years), with Dec. 2002 being the 2nd analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I pulled the Nino years showing up on CPC right now: 1952 1972 1982 1986 2002 2006 2009 4 out of the 7 had good blocking in Dec (and the balance of winter). 82-83 was a late bloomer with blocking and still snowed in Dec. 52-53 had good blocking but was a total dud here regardless. The only real takeaway is the fact that numerous Ninos are showing up right now. Anything is on the table for Dec imo. I'm glad to see that at the very least the beginning of Dec isn't looking warm or tragic. I do vividly remember getting to the end of Nov last year and we were constantly waiting for the day 15 of the ensembles to show any hope and for week 4 of the weeklies to show any hope. Lets hope that's not the case this winter. The CFS monthly is ticking better, hopefully the next week it pushes the pac low a little to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 That 72 analog can't be one to jump up and down about. I think we could all probably live with 86, 02, 09 though...........not being picky or anything. I wouldn't kick 82-83 out of the house either. Analogs for snow aren't very good guidance as we all know because our "luck" requirement is always in play even with the perfect setup. But overall it's a mildly encouraging sign seeing sets of years like what's on CPC. Interesting...I see the two famous December 5 events are in there (among other intriguing dates/years), with Dec. 2002 being the 2nd analogue. It should be cold enough for frozen as we enter into Dec. All systems go for a fairly impressive conus cold shot. Whether there's any precip during that time frame...heh... I do vividly remember getting to the end of Nov last year and we were constantly waiting for the day 15 of the ensembles to show any hope and for week 4 of the weeklies to show any hope. Lets hope that's not the case this winter. The CFS monthly is ticking better, hopefully the next week it pushes the pac low a little to the west. At this point I don't see anything scary tbh. At the very least the Pac is looking serviceable as we enter met winter. Could be much worse even though the NAO is never going negative again in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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