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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

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So I have one more question after looking at this... why did 91/92 suck so much if it was a moderate/strong El Nino and west based? Was it the +NAO?

 

So I have one more question after looking at this... why did 91/92 suck so much if it was a moderate/strong El Nino and west based? Was it the +NAO?

Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo may have something to do with it.

 

Mappy, no clue what you mean.

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I think it looks really good for you guys.

Went 30-40" for Philly.

Agree with that.

Not too cold, though.

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Idk if it will be that bad, but we're definitely going to need something sizable or a prolonged cold stretch if we're going climo+ after a bad December and January.

Who can say if we are going to have a bad Dec or January. We cant know just yet. Seems somewhat likely that at least part of Dec will be mild, but nothing has locked in yet. There are signs in the guidance that the vortex over Alaska may break down or shift, and even some hints of higher heights building around the pole. May be the beginnings of the AO transitioning. I think Cohen catches lightning in a bottle this winter. Right for the right reasons.

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Who can say if we are going to have a bad Dec or January. We cant know just yet. Seems somewhat likely that at least part of Dec will be mild, but nothing has locked in yet. There are signs in the guidance that the vortex over Alaska may break down or shift, and even some hints of higher heights building around the pole. May be the beginnings of the AO transitioning. I think Cohen catches lightning in a bottle this winter. Right for the right reasons.

Exactly. Some act as if a bad December and January is a certainty.

Weather forecasting must have improved about 100 fold.

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Hindsight?  You mean we've already done the re-analysis on this winter and the +NAO that lasted all winter, meaning it never got cold enough to have a meaningful snow unless it happened at night?

 

didn't you know, he can predict the future. 

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Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a +5 November.  Anybody going above climo this year is in deep trouble unless we manage a fluke storm that falls at night somehow.

SERIOUSLY???!!!!  its not bad enough that we have to put up with nonsense posts about how it cant stick because its March or November or it was warm the day before, whatever, but now you really are implying that because its very warm in November that it cant snow all winter unless its at night?  You need an intervention!

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I would nominate that guy who implied that daylight savings time would make it harder to snow because of the extra hour of light in the day a few years ago. 

 

I sort of remember that, but don't recall if it was said in jest!  One can hope that was the case?

 

There's always the one with the picture of the ruler in the snow...upside-down!

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+6 for January temperatures?  Wow.  I mean going warmer than normal for January or winter as a whole isn't out of line from what many are calling for, but that's pretty toasty!  Quite a contrast with regard to temps and snow, even more than some long range forecasts I've seen.

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