mappy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 December was decent up here, anyway... did you get lost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I assume '97 was BN for November before becoming an epic failure the rest of the winter? DCA -3.7 BWI -3.1 IAD -1.8 unusually cool for Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 So I have one more question after looking at this... why did 91/92 suck so much if it was a moderate/strong El Nino and west based? Was it the +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 DCA -3.7 BWI -3.1 IAD -1.8 unusually cool for Nov. ahh, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 So I have one more question after looking at this... why did 91/92 suck so much if it was a moderate/strong El Nino and west based? Was it the +NAO? So I have one more question after looking at this... why did 91/92 suck so much if it was a moderate/strong El Nino and west based? Was it the +NAO? Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo may have something to do with it. Mappy, no clue what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-2015-346882392.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_PHBrand This guy is going with 30-38 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a +5 November. Anybody going above climo this year is in deep trouble unless we manage a fluke storm that falls at night somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-2015-346882392.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_PHBrand This guy is going with 30-38 inches... I think it looks really good for you guys. Went 30-40" for Philly. Agree with that. Not too cold, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a +5 November. Anybody going above climo this year is in deep trouble unless we manage a fluke storm that falls at night somehow. Deb gonna Deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 1997-98 seems to be the Super Nino analog to fear. So the fact this November is going to be incomparable seems pretty good. I still think we take our chances this year, as if next year is neutral or nina we'll be rolling much smaller dice regardless of what the CFS says in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Deb gonna DebYou can say that again. What a declaration to make on Nov 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Idk if it will be that bad, but we're definitely going to need something sizable or a prolonged cold stretch if we're going climo+ after a bad December and January. Who can say if we are going to have a bad Dec or January. We cant know just yet. Seems somewhat likely that at least part of Dec will be mild, but nothing has locked in yet. There are signs in the guidance that the vortex over Alaska may break down or shift, and even some hints of higher heights building around the pole. May be the beginnings of the AO transitioning. I think Cohen catches lightning in a bottle this winter. Right for the right reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Who can say if we are going to have a bad Dec or January. We cant know just yet. Seems somewhat likely that at least part of Dec will be mild, but nothing has locked in yet. There are signs in the guidance that the vortex over Alaska may break down or shift, and even some hints of higher heights building around the pole. May be the beginnings of the AO transitioning. I think Cohen catches lightning in a bottle this winter. Right for the right reasons. Exactly. Some act as if a bad December and January is a certainty. Weather forecasting must have improved about 100 fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a +5 November. Anybody going above climo this year is in deep trouble unless we manage a fluke storm that falls at night somehow. OK, forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 OK, forky. Makes sense in hindsight. That +NAO is a brutal beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Think CFS might agree with us on a warm December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD1 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That was a good one looks like the epo is going really neg around the 20th ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Makes sense in hindsight. That +NAO is a brutal beast. Hindsight? You mean we've already done the re-analysis on this winter and the +NAO that lasted all winter, meaning it never got cold enough to have a meaningful snow unless it happened at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 OK, forky. I'm not sure if he doesn't bad mouth snow chances just for fun...........but if he's serious, then yikes. He's had some memorable busts on downplaying snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Hindsight? You mean we've already done the re-analysis on this winter and the +NAO that lasted all winter, meaning it never got cold enough to have a meaningful snow unless it happened at night? didn't you know, he can predict the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 didn't you know, he can predict the future. If I was a mod, I could predict his future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 didn't you know, he can predict the future. I'm not the best poster here, but, my God, his was a bad post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm not the best poster here, but, my God, his was a bad post. just the one post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 just the one post? Touché Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 just the one post? mattie g was referencing it being a bad post for that particular hour, not of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 mattie g was referencing it being a bad post for that particular hour, not of all time That would be a competition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a +5 November. Anybody going above climo this year is in deep trouble unless we manage a fluke storm that falls at night somehow. SERIOUSLY???!!!! its not bad enough that we have to put up with nonsense posts about how it cant stick because its March or November or it was warm the day before, whatever, but now you really are implying that because its very warm in November that it cant snow all winter unless its at night? You need an intervention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 mattie g was referencing it being a bad post for that particular hour, not of all time That would be a competition I would nominate that guy who implied that daylight savings time would make it harder to snow because of the extra hour of light in the day a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I would nominate that guy who implied that daylight savings time would make it harder to snow because of the extra hour of light in the day a few years ago. I sort of remember that, but don't recall if it was said in jest! One can hope that was the case? There's always the one with the picture of the ruler in the snow...upside-down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-2015-346882392.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_PHBrand This guy is going with 30-38 inches... +6 for January temperatures? Wow. I mean going warmer than normal for January or winter as a whole isn't out of line from what many are calling for, but that's pretty toasty! Quite a contrast with regard to temps and snow, even more than some long range forecasts I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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