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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

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Euro weeklies for the 1st week of December are not bad.  +PNA/-EPO with split flow.  Doesn't look like much cold air in Canada though.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3745508

 

Didn't someone say the weeklies are jumping around a lot recently though?

 

The end of the Euro ensembles show this subtle shift to a -EPO as well...that would be around 11/20...not buying it yet, but it's a change that has started to show up in the past 2-3 runs, and it got stronger last night.

 

If the ensembles are correct, but just happen to be rushing the pattern change, then it would bode well for a colder pattern in early December. But you'd like to see several more cycles of ensemble runs showing that pattern...and then eventually somewhere down the line get that pattern inside of 10 days.

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The end of the Euro ensembles show this subtle shift to a -EPO as well...that would be around 11/20...not buying it yet, but it's a change that has started to show up in the past 2-3 runs, and it got stronger last night.

 

If the ensembles are correct, but just happen to be rushing the pattern change, then it would bode well for a colder pattern in early December. But you'd like to see several more cycles of ensemble runs showing that pattern...and then eventually somewhere down the line get that pattern inside of 10 days.

Great patterns are wasted on us before December 10th-15th anyway.  So, I'd be perfectly content if we slowly evolve the pattern between now and then. 

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Great patterns are wasted on us before December 10th-15th anyway.  So, I'd be perfectly content if we slowly evolve the pattern between now and then. 

 

Agreed but we definitely want the evolution sooner rather than later. Even if it means "wasting a pattern". As ORH so aptly put it....we don't want a small galaxy parked over AK or the GOA to have any staying power. All systems go for that to happen for at least a time mid month. The faster that breaks down the better. We certainly don't want to have any persistence to that type of look as we head towards Dec. Transient ugliness during Nov is just fine though. heh. 

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Can't say I'm a fan of waiting for patterns to produce, but I'm bullish too on a backloaded winter. Historically Feb is the time we see our best storms, and with an active stj and a good period of pattern we open the door for a couple of events that put us over the top. I think we get enough of an everything but that magical NAO to have another good run. 

 

Temps could be AN, but it really doesn't matter all that much to me if we're +1 or 2 on the month--what matters is getting the moisture in place and a well timed dip in the AO/NAO.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we sneak in a few inches in December (especially fall line-west), but my gut says it'll be about a four- to five-week period in late-January into February (maybe something like 1/25 to 2/25) that will be our bread and butter, with another chance for a snowstorm in March.

 

I know...really going out on a limb with that! :lol:  But it could be a month to remember...or a miserable washout!

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Kammerer thinks Southern Maryland will also get more snow than usual, but probably between 10 to 15 inches total.

 

 

Not to be nitpicky but this comment doesn't make a whole lot of sense, considering southern MD averages between 10-19 inches of snow a year (about 10" at the southern tip of St. Mary's, about 17" in my area, for example).

 

Anyway, are we doing a snowfall contest this year? Figured one would be popping up by now.

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Very thorough outlook which I appreciate since it gives me the opportunity to continue learning. I agree with your overall outlook as I think this will be a backloaded winter. Thanks for posting, I'll be following your blog throughout winter.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Is there a site where previous El Nino events are listed as being west-based, east-based, or basin wide? I've been trying to find this info online but come up empty-handed.

 

(I'm not making a forecast- this is just to research for myself)

There is a graphic that was posted in the NYC winter thread.

I used it in my outlook.

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