Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Gotcha. Sry,on my cell. You doing an outlook? You know your stuff... it will be out within the next 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I said I'm basically agnostic toward NAO/AO, and there are several reasons why...I'm not completely ignoring Judah Cohen, but a 70th percentile SAI is not enough to sway me given some other mitigating factors, especially when he lost the super bowl last winter 49-0 after being an 18 pt favorite.... Yea, and add in a particularly strong enso event and you have the potential for strange and/or unexpected things to happen depending on how everything else shakes out. I've been pretty much quiet on winter spec for a while now. I'm kinda done with it. I/we know pretty much everything at this point that needs to go right and also have a good handle on how things can go bad...or really bad... You have a tough outlook this year in the snow department. Temps are a little easier I suppose. Interestingly, the AO is looking like it could peak @ +3 over the next week. LR guidance keeps a fairly consolidated vortex over the pole through the end of their runs. Doesn't even look muddy. Pretty much strong agreement for long leads. I'm not sure how meaningful that is in November but since we are moving towards met winter fairly quickly, we probably don't want to see such a strong + event. Hard to budge in Dec if it bleeds into it. I'm ready to see what cards December shows in the LW pattern once we get into range in 2-3 weeks and discuss that. Jan/Feb talk doesn't really get me that excited right now. Hopefully Nov tosses us a fantasy threat to get the blood pumping. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Yea, and add in a particularly strong enso event and you have the potential for strange and/or unexpected things to happen depending on how everything else shakes out. I've been pretty much quiet on winter spec for a while now. I'm kinda done with it. I/we know pretty much everything at this point that needs to go right and also have a good handle on how things can go bad...or really bad... You have a tough outlook this year in the snow department. Temps are a little easier I suppose. Interestingly, the AO is looking like it could peak @ +3 over the next week. LR guidance keeps a fairly consolidated vortex over the pole through the end of their runs. Doesn't even look muddy. Pretty much strong agreement for long leads. I'm not sure how meaningful that is in November but since we are moving towards met winter fairly quickly, we probably don't want to see such a strong + event. Hard to budge in Dec if it bleeds into it. I'm ready to see what cards December shows in the LW pattern once we get into range in 2-3 weeks and discuss that. Jan/Feb talk doesn't really get me that excited right now. Hopefully Nov tosses us a fantasy threat to get the blood pumping. lol Sorry Bob, I had to report this post for dissin' by implication the winter of 86/87. We didn't get rockin' until 1/21/87. What's wrong with you man? Bad weenie for lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Sorry Bob, I had to report this post for dissin' by implication the winter of 86/87. We didn't get rockin' until 1/21/87. What's wrong with you man? Bad weenie for lunch? I think I may have worded my post badly. I'll get excited for Jan after Dec and so on. Crawl walk and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Strange an unexpected like the SE ridge lasting all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 This forum is one of a kind. Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later. This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF. Can't have it both ways now can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Strange an unexpected like the SE ridge lasting all winter. ha, that's not happening unless everything we know about ENSO gets turned upside down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 This forum is one of a kind. Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later. This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF. Can't have it both ways now can we? Winter can fail here in every imaginable way possible...Everything is a death omen and we're usually right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 This forum is one of a kind. Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later. This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF. Can't have it both ways now can we? Back-loaded winters ftw. JFM. Our actual winter months...emphasis on F&M. More times than not, Dec is a fail around here. Accept it and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 4.4" 12/17 - 0.4" 12/29 - 0.1" 1/27 - 1.5" 2/8 - 2.1" 2/26 - 0.2" 4/16 - 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This forum is one of a kind. Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later. This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF. Can't have it both ways now can we?What's wrong with a November torch? I'm playing the odds that it's a good thing. I doubt a November fluke, though 11/87 says it's possible. But I think our better chance is with a December storm as 82/83 is the better of those 2 winters analog-wise given a choice. Of course, they could both fail. In the end, I don't care if there's a good analog so long as we get snow. Preferably, a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Back-loaded winters ftw. JFM. Our actual winter months...emphasis on F&M. More times than not, Dec is a fail around here. Accept it and move on. I don't know if it's cyclical but for much of the 2000s, December was far snowier than March, and we would routinely get snow on December 5th while the following March was usually uneventful. Seems like in the past few years the tables have turned and March has consistently been much more wintry, especially in the cities. I don't really know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 4.4" 12/17 - 0.4" 12/29 - 0.1" 1/27 - 1.5" 2/8 - 2.1" 2/26 - 0.2" 4/16 - 0.1" Better than '11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 ha, that's not happening unless everything we know about ENSO gets turned upside down... low passing underneath us sun/mon might be the first warm rain event of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Better than '11-12 And '12-'13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We were talking about December. Dec last year I recorded zilch. First time in forever I can remember that. I agree with others here that I would rather have the torch upfront in Nov, Dec. The pattern will flip eventually. If its gonna flip to cold let it happen during prime climo. Edit: just went back and looked at my records. 2004 was the last snowless Dec. I recorded before last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 And '12-'13 thanks for reminding us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 2015-16 IMBY - 32" 11/29-30: 4.5" 1/21: 1.25" 2/17: 7.5" 2/20-22: 18" 2/24: 0.75" 4.4" 12/17 - 0.4" 12/29 - 0.1" 1/27 - 1.5" 2/8 - 2.1" 2/26 - 0.2" 4/16 - 0.1" Damn. Matt's turned into the CFSv2. Abandon all hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 thanks for reminding us Yeah it's kind of a somber atmosphere to bring up crappy winters. Hopefully you have another historic epic winter like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah it's kind of a somber atmosphere to bring up crappy winters. Hopefully you have another historic epic winter like last year. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Last winter was historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Last winter was historic?It's part of history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Last winter was historic? No. Please pay attention. It was epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 At least Fozz got the humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 At least Fozz got the humor Oh, we got it....and like it. We are just sarcastic about everything here. It's how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I know you know just about every winter stat by heart going back 150 years, so this comment was a good one lol That's why I replied directly to Matt, lol. I vividly still remember the '04-'05 jokes back on WWBB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We suck at winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We suck at winter.Vermont sucks at surfing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We suck at winter. I can't think of a whole lot of places that are both mild in the winter (I know you can't stand cold ) and get lots of snow. Maybe the west coast of Honshu, Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah it's kind of a somber atmosphere to bring up crappy winters. Hopefully you have another historic epic winter like last year. well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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