Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[packbacker]

The underlying problem with the "small sample size" argument is that when you are looking for analogs, you are always going to have a small sample size because you are intentionally limiting it for the closest match. I mean how many years are there with enso greater than 1c degree in enso 3.4? Not many! Same can be said for Nina less than -1c.

Agreed! And with weeklies and ensembles showing a toasty east through at least the first week of Nov the enso++/warm Nov paradigm may be put to test this winter.

[thunderbolt]

Hey, it's all good. Don't fear a warm winter....it is what it is. Although it's comforting knowing that it will inevitably happen again so we can emotionally prepare for heartbreak. This is not the basis of my thinking, just some food for thought. I don' think the analogs above are a clear-cut example due to the strength of the current ENSO event, especially in relation to 09-10.

We also seem to be setting into a long-term +NAO pattern. Remove any of the magical pieces of 09-10 and you end up with a meh' winter.

what analogs would you recommend

[AvantHiatus]

what analogs would you recommend

I feel this is uncharted territory for various reasons. Some similarities to early 60s (63-64/65-66) when we were leaving the +AMO era, but that transition could very well be a blip like the return to +NAO.

[WinterWxLuvr]

what analogs would you recommend

During his analog years, dinosaurs roamed the earth.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Using the last two years' snowfall as a factor in any seasonal outlook would be rather foolish. It's just as bad as using the "we're due index" after a run of lean years to help inform an outlook.

It depends on whether every winter here is truly an independent trial or if the previous years setup/teleconnections plays a role in some way (ie makes it more or less likely to repeat). I don't know enough about meteorology to answer that though.

[uncle W]

There's been some discussion about an impending warm November and the weenie angst that goes along with above normal temps during winter/near winter months. Well, weenies relax, as history says a warm November is exactly what we want this year.

The NINO being the number 1 factor this winter, I decided to look at snowfall in NINO winter's with cold vs. warm Novembers. However, I limited my research (if you want to call it that lol) to only moderate and strong NINOs. I had to cut it off somewhere and since this winter is hands-down strong(+?), I did not include weak or borderline weal/moderate winters. Therefore, winters that peak with +1.0C or less were excluded. That left me with 9 winters (excluding this year) since 1950. Then I compared the average monthly November temp at BWI of 46.5 degree each year, and that season's snowfall to BWI's average of 20.1". It gave me the list below.

WINTER 3.4 PEAK NOV. TEMP SNOWFALL

57/58 +1.7C 47.2 43.0"

63/64 +1.2C 47.3 51.8"

65/66 +1.8C 45.6 32.8"

72/73 +2.0C 43.2 1.2"

82/83 +2.1C 48.4 35.6"

87/88 +1.6C 47.8 20.4"

91/92 +1.6C 45.8 4.1"

97/98 +2.3C 43.7 3.2"

02/03 +1.3C 44.4 58.1"

09/10 +1.3C 49.7 77.0"

I have bolded all the Novembers with AN temps, and what do we have? Above normal snow EVERY YEAR. Now, the other mod/strong NINO winters all had below normal November temps and some were great and others our well known epic fails. So, what the numbers say is that you don't have to have an above normal November to have above normal snows in a mod/strong NINO. But if you do, you (BWI) get above normal snows. It is obviously a limited number of years, but I do find it encouraging that it works all the way back to 1957, and we've had a few regime changes over those almost 60 years. So Global Warmer and AvantHiatus, bring on the November heat!

I did not check to see if it works at DCA. If not every year, then almost all should work is my gut.

P.S. Links where I obtained my numbers

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwitemps.pdf

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

baltimore's coldest Decembers and the monthly ao number...19 of the top 20 and the first 18 coldest Decembers had a negative ao for the month...

Dec.....temp...AO index

1989....25.4....-0.644

1960....28.4....-0.343

1963....28.8....-1.178

1958....29.9....-1.687

2000....30.0....-2.354

1962....30.9....-0.711

1955....31.3....-0.444

1950....32.3....-1.928

2010....32.4....-2.631

1976....32.6....-2.074

1961....33.4....-1.668

1985....33.8....-1.948

1995....33.9....-2.127

2005....34.0....-2.104

2002....34.3....-1.592

1981....34.5....-1.216

1968....34.6....-0.783

2009....34.8....-3.416

1954....35.0.....0.553

1969....35.2....-1.856

[EastCoast NPZ]

During his analog years, dinosaurs roamed the earth.

[gymengineer]

Ian, I would say just about 100% of our sub thinks this winter will be near to above normal temp wise for DJF. Maybe we squeeze 1 BN month in the mix but it would shock me if this winter is remembered as cold.

The optimism comes from the chance at a big moisture laden snow storm or 2. That's about it. No way we nickel and dime to big totals like last year imo.

That's accurate describing DCA's climb to an above-average total last season. But, for IAD, and for you and me, I'm not sure it makes sense to describe last season as "nickle-and-diming." Two 6"+ storms in one season is a pretty hefty haul based on data from 30+ years in this area...and those storms shot us to well-over-average. 

 

Overall, I get your point. Our average is low enough that we could go past it in just two-- or even one-- storms. So we'll wait and see...

[thunderbolt]

I feel this is uncharted territory for various reasons. Some similarities to early 60s (63-64/65-66) when we were leaving the +AMO era, but that transition could very well be a blip like the return to +NAO.

do you have the enso maps for those years

[AvantHiatus]

do you have the enso maps for those years

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[thunderbolt]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

63/64 does not match 65/66 maybe

[Eskimo Joe]

There's been some discussion about an impending warm November and the weenie angst that goes along with above normal temps during winter/near winter months. Well, weenies relax, as history says a warm November is exactly what we want this year.

The NINO being the number 1 factor this winter, I decided to look at snowfall in NINO winter's with cold vs. warm Novembers. However, I limited my research (if you want to call it that lol) to only moderate and strong NINOs. I had to cut it off somewhere and since this winter is hands-down strong(+?), I did not include weak or borderline weal/moderate winters. Therefore, winters that peak with +1.0C or less were excluded. That left me with 9 winters (excluding this year) since 1950. Then I compared the average monthly November temp at BWI of 46.5 degree each year, and that season's snowfall to BWI's average of 20.1". It gave me the list below.

WINTER 3.4 PEAK NOV. TEMP SNOWFALL

57/58 +1.7C 47.2 43.0"

63/64 +1.2C 47.3 51.8"

65/66 +1.8C 45.6 32.8"

72/73 +2.0C 43.2 1.2"

82/83 +2.1C 48.4 35.6"

87/88 +1.6C 47.8 20.4"

91/92 +1.6C 45.8 4.1"

97/98 +2.3C 43.7 3.2"

02/03 +1.3C 44.4 58.1"

09/10 +1.3C 49.7 77.0"

I have bolded all the Novembers with AN temps, and what do we have? Above normal snow EVERY YEAR. Now, the other mod/strong NINO winters all had below normal November temps and some were great and others our well known epic fails. So, what the numbers say is that you don't have to have an above normal November to have above normal snows in a mod/strong NINO. But if you do, you (BWI) get above normal snows. It is obviously a limited number of years, but I do find it encouraging that it works all the way back to 1957, and we've had a few regime changes over those almost 60 years. So Global Warmer and AvantHiatus, bring on the November heat!

I did not check to see if it works at DCA. If not every year, then almost all should work is my gut.

P.S. Links where I obtained my numbers

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwitemps.pdf

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

Interesting research, but it seems to go against Tony Gigi's (Rainshadow) work over in the PHL subforum. His numbers indicate a cold November tends to indicate a favorable winter. It's really a moot point either way because this sample size is too small to be statistically significant.

[mitchnick]

Interesting research, but it seems to go against Tony Gigi's (Rainshadow) work over in the PHL subforum. His numbers indicate a cold November tends to indicate a favorable winter. It's really a moot point either way because this sample size is too small to be statistically significant.

First, I don't know what you mean by the term "favorable winter" wrt Tony's research. Does it mean BN temps, AN snowfall, or something else because all I looked at was snowfall. Therefore, my research does not, on its face, contradict his research. Second, you do realize that the list includes Baltimore's record snow winter (09/10) and the top snowfall for the 1960's and 4th or 5th top winter at BWI (63/64)? And of note is the fact that 09/10 had the warmest November of the group to go along with the most snowfall ever at BWI! Now, considering PHL had similar November's and snowfall to BWI in the years on the list, obviously mod/strong NINOs would have to be exceptions to Tony's research, assuming he was talking snowfall only. Finally, "moot" is a poor word choice. An issue is moot if it has already been decided. What is at issue here is whether warm Novembers in mod/strong NINOs signal AN snowfall at BWI. The numbers unequivocally say they do. You, on the other hand, contend that the sample size is too small to make it statistically significant, not moot. Of course, the question then becomes the minimum number of years required that overcomes your contention. But considering I've included every mod/strong NINO since 1950 and snowfall records at BWI/Baltimore only go back 60 years before that, I'm guessing the list will remain small and subject to similar complaint.

[Bob Chill]

That's accurate describing DCA's climb to an above-average total last season. But, for IAD, and for you and me, I'm not sure it makes sense to describe last season as "nickle-and-diming." Two 6"+ storms in one season is a pretty hefty haul based on data from 30+ years in this area...and those storms shot us to well-over-average. 

 

Overall, I get your point. Our average is low enough that we could go past it in just two-- or even one-- storms. So we'll wait and see...

 

I was mostly referring to the sheer # of events. I had 12 measurable last year and 10 of them were under 4". Agree that getting a 6+ and 8+ in a single season is nothing to scoff at and is fairly uncommon overall. 

 

Gun to head...I think this will be a 6 or less events year. Of course I hope I'm wrong. 

[Casualbrain]

Nice paper on ENSO and AO interactions along the east coast for winter:

 

The impact of ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on winter temperature extremes in the southeast United States

Authors

• Young-Kwon Lim,
  •  

  1.  
  2.  
• Siegfried D. Schubert

"The findings of this study suggest that AO can often overwhelm the influence of ENSO in this area. This tends to occur when La Niña (El Niño) coincides with a negative (positive) AO (Figure S3). The occurrence of negative (positive) 500 mb height anomalies over the southeast US associated with a negative (positive) AO appear to interrupt the development of positive (negative) height anomaly resulting from La Niña (El Niño) over that region. This weakened ENSO response over the southeast has been particularly evident in recent years (post 1980) for El Niño (Figure 4), which do not exhibit the typical colder winters in response to El Niño that occurred in the earlier (pre-1980) decades [Ropelewski and Halpert, 1986]. This feature in the recent years accounts for the relatively small contribution of El Niño to the cold extremes with the impact more confined to the southern part of our study domain, as discussed also by Hansen et al. [1999] and Goto-Maeda et al. [2008]"

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL048283/full

[AvantHiatus]

Arctic amplification has been helping us out in recent years and defined the 2000s/2010s as record snow producers. Chances are it will still be there so anything is possible, but probably more geared towards heavy precipitation and storminess.

 

Most of that falling as frozen is unlikely along the coastal plain due to AN conditions and the STJ tendency to saturate PWATS and DP too much creating a flood of warm air advection even with semi-acceptable storm tracks.

[nflwxman]

There's been some discussion about an impending warm November and the weenie angst that goes along with above normal temps during winter/near winter months. Well, weenies relax, as history says a warm November is exactly what we want this year.

The NINO being the number 1 factor this winter, I decided to look at snowfall in NINO winter's with cold vs. warm Novembers. However, I limited my research (if you want to call it that lol) to only moderate and strong NINOs. I had to cut it off somewhere and since this winter is hands-down strong(+?), I did not include weak or borderline weal/moderate winters. Therefore, winters that peak with +1.0C or less were excluded. That left me with 9 winters (excluding this year) since 1950. Then I compared the average monthly November temp at BWI of 46.5 degree each year, and that season's snowfall to BWI's average of 20.1". It gave me the list below.

WINTER 3.4 PEAK NOV. TEMP SNOWFALL

57/58 +1.7C 47.2 43.0"

63/64 +1.2C 47.3 51.8"

65/66 +1.8C 45.6 32.8"

72/73 +2.0C 43.2 1.2"

82/83 +2.1C 48.4 35.6"

87/88 +1.6C 47.8 20.4"

91/92 +1.6C 45.8 4.1"

97/98 +2.3C 43.7 3.2"

02/03 +1.3C 44.4 58.1"

09/10 +1.3C 49.7 77.0"

I have bolded all the Novembers with AN temps, and what do we have? Above normal snow EVERY YEAR. Now, the other mod/strong NINO winters all had below normal November temps and some were great and others our well known epic fails. So, what the numbers say is that you don't have to have an above normal November to have above normal snows in a mod/strong NINO. But if you do, you (BWI) get above normal snows. It is obviously a limited number of years, but I do find it encouraging that it works all the way back to 1957, and we've had a few regime changes over those almost 60 years. So Global Warmer and AvantHiatus, bring on the November heat!

I did not check to see if it works at DCA. If not every year, then almost all should work is my gut.

P.S. Links where I obtained my numbers

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwitemps.pdf

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

 

Interesting research.  I would imagine some of that favorable correlation (unless it's a statistical mirage) might actually have to do with heightened temperatures off of the east coast that loads the deck for more moisture laden storms.  November features the steepest drop in SSTs near the BM.  Anything that offsets that may be a net positive as far as snow is concerned.

 

All the blockbuster years you mentioned had elevated E. coast SSTs moving into December.

[Deck Pic]

I was mostly referring to the sheer # of events. I had 12 measurable last year and 10 of them were under 4". Agree that getting a 6+ and 8+ in a single season is nothing to scoff at and is fairly uncommon overall. 

 

Gun to head...I think this will be a 6 or less events year. Of course I hope I'm wrong. 

 

I presented to DC council this morning, and I said basically that...That the number of events would decrease...I had 13 in 2013-14 and 8 last winter...I told them around 6 events seemed about right..And by events, I mean events where I record more than a T.  My average number of events for the last 11 winters is 7.4

[mitchnick]

Interesting research.  I would imagine some of that favorable correlation (unless it's a statistical mirage) might actually have to do with heightened temperatures off of the east coast that loads the deck for more moisture laden storms.  November features the steepest drop in SSTs near the BM.  Anything that offsets that may be a net positive as far as snow is concerned.

 

All the blockbuster years you mentioned had elevated E. coast SSTs moving into December.

That's probably the only real question in my mind too. Stranger things have happened. In any event, it has me hoping for AN temps to at least test it since I'm sure it will be a number of years before we get another mod/strong NINO. Of course, we can test it with below normal temps in November, but I'd rather try it with AN temps for obvious reasons.  lol  My luck, November will come back dead climo temp-wise. 

[North Balti Zen]

Not sure why anyone is bothered by a warm Nov - we are hunting a big one this year if we want to get to climo probably - not sure a warm Nov vs a cold Nov makes a difference on that hunt. Cold Novs are mostly just a waste of cold air around here in any event.

[famartin]

Not sure why anyone is bothered by a warm Nov - we are hunting a big one this year if we want to get to climo probably - not sure a warm Nov vs a cold Nov makes a difference on that hunt. Cold Novs are mostly just a waste of cold air around here in any event.

Probably the "trend is your friend" ideology.  Obviously not good in this case given past precedent.

[North Balti Zen]

Probably the "trend is your friend" ideology.  Obviously not good in this case given past precedent.

 

I guess. But 2009/10 wasn't really a "cold' winter here - just lined up great when moisture was around. We are not nickel and diming our way to 20" this year - I think everyone knows that (last year was just crazy lucky to be that cold that late with enough moisture around to get past climo). Since we are not looking for multiple small events - warmth early vs cold early really doesn't get me worried or happy one way or the other. Give us plenty of moisture and see what happens. If we go wall to wall warm, we are screwed in terms of snow anyway - but I don't know that I buy that a warm nov means things are going to otherwise tank in terms of snow. This really feels like a "just need to get one" winter (like '82/'83 around here?).

[WinterWxLuvr]

Probably the "trend is your friend" ideology.  Obviously not good in this case given past precedent.

I have never liked the trend idea.  I'm more along the lines of a pattern can't and won't last forever.  If its warm early I think it increases the chances of it flipping during the better months.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I guess. But 2009/10 wasn't really a "cold' winter here - just lined up great when moisture was around. We are not nickel and diming our way to 20" this year - I think everyone knows that (last year was just crazy lucky to be that cold that late with enough moisture around to get past climo). Since we are not looking for multiple small events - warmth early vs cold early really doesn't get me worried or happy one way or the other. Give us plenty of moisture and see what happens. If we go wall to wall warm, we are screwed in terms of snow anyway - but I don't know that I buy that a warm nov means things are going to otherwise tank in terms of snow. This really feels like a "just need to get one" winter (like '82/'83 around here?).

No, they don't KNOW that.  If they say they do, there full of it.  Nobody can forecast weather that accurately 3-5 months in advance.

[Deck Pic]

Probably the "trend is your friend" ideology.  Obviously not good in this case given past precedent.

 

Did a presentation with Chris Strong today...We talked about you  all good things

[Bob Chill]

Not sure why anyone is bothered by a warm Nov - we are hunting a big one this year if we want to get to climo probably - not sure a warm Nov vs a cold Nov makes a difference on that hunt. Cold Novs are mostly just a waste of cold air around here in any event.

 

I don't think anyone is bothered by a warm November. Depends on why it's warm though before connecting anything further down the line. The pattern supporting warmth on the models is definitely not a Nino pattern so it really means zero.

 

The only thing I find just a little bit unnerving is the AO. Ens are pointing towards a fairly significant + spike in the +2-3 range and remaining + through the first 10 days of the month. We definitely don't want a strong +AO on the means for Nov. 

[AvantHiatus]

I have never liked the trend idea.  I'm more along the lines of a pattern can't and won't last forever.  If its warm early I think it increases the chances of it flipping during the better months.

California was praying for that to be true last winter.

 

In regards to Bob Chill's concerns. +AO is definitely very bad and creates the potential for the cold air dome to end up in the other hemisphere. Those things are less changeable on timescales of 1-3 months.

[North Balti Zen]

No, they don't KNOW that.  If they say they do, there full of it.  Nobody can forecast weather that accurately 3-5 months in advance.

 

True enough.

 

I think most don't EXPECT that we are not nickel and diming our way to climo as we don't live out where you do. But, sure, for your area, have at it.

[Ian]

The "just one big one" is a rarity here though. I wouldn't bank on that as your salvation. It could happen but big storms tend to come in good winters. 

[North Balti Zen]

The "just one big one" is a rarity here though. I wouldn't bank on that as your salvation. It could happen but big storms tend to come in good winters. 

Not banking on it, just from my perspective it's what it will take to get to climo this year. Without it, we are not getting there. I have not seen a prediction thread yet, but when it comes I am going low, as I agree that needing to hit a big one isn't the best way to get to the average.

 

That said, either way, a warm or cold November doesn't change those odds of finding one storm in my view.