Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[AvantHiatus]

Our colder periods have followed the -EPO trends. It's nearly a 1:1 lock beginning around -150SD. This is all dependent on what the NAO and PNA are doing simultaneously above the -150 benchmark.

 

 

[Casualbrain]

I've lived long enough in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic to see some amazing winter events.  12"+ in Charlotte in Feb '79 and Jan '88, 36" in Boone Mar '93, 24" of snow in Roanoke in Jan '96 and Feb '14.  I've done research on all of these events and there is not a clear synoptic winter weather pattern that determined that these storms would occur in advance.  It's a statistical crap shoot folks.
Looking at research http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1705.1there IS a correlation between ENSO and potential for high precip amounts (we all know this) - but hunting for clues in different models to predict if the winter is a "win" or "sucks" is an exercise in futility that will drive you insane.
 

Let's wait for cold weather first - then let's obsess over the EURO vs GFS and ask "Is it AGW causing such a great/suckish winter?" to each other all winter long.  Face it, winter is way more fun when there are surprises - which is why we are all weather nerds

Yeah - I'm an APPS guy too - should probably be posting on the SE board instead of Mid-Atl, but hey - you guys are more fun

[Ian]

Well dropping the AGW argument most people around these parts like snow so they are biased. The signal for a flood of warmth is certainly there but I see mostly 200% snowfall maps running around.

[Blizzard92]

Well dropping the AGW argument most people around these parts like snow so they are biased. The signal for a flood of warmth is certainly there but I see mostly 200% snowfall maps running around.

It's a bit frustrating to say the least, albeit this is nothing new in this world. Doubling climatologies for snowfall in the midatlantic is quite the rarity and statistically speaking alone the odds are terrible given the past few winters. All I read are people looking for any factor that would signal snow, and then assume that those forcings will dominate the pattern. 

[AvantHiatus]

Well dropping the AGW argument most people around these parts like snow so they are biased. The signal for a flood of warmth is certainly there but I see mostly 200% snowfall maps running around.

It's difficult to discern the scope of influence from something like AGW. I just know that it exists and is quantifiable albeit not by myself or current technology on a numerical event by event basis. Adding something like a strong el nino with a raging pac ontop can only mean bad things for snow lovers.

[AvantHiatus]

[mattie g]

It's a bit frustrating to say the least, albeit this is nothing new in this world. Doubling climatologies for snowfall in the midatlantic is quite the rarity and statistically speaking alone the odds are terrible given the past few winters. All I read are people looking for any factor that would signal snow, and then assume that those forcings will dominate the pattern.

Using the last two years' snowfall as a factor in any seasonal outlook would be rather foolish. It's just as bad as using the "we're due index" after a run of lean years to help inform an outlook.

[mattie g]

4panel.png

What's this telling us about winter?

[CAPE]

What's this telling us about winter?

Absolutely nothing. But I will welcome a mild beginning to November. Bring it.

[Fozz]

It's a bit frustrating to say the least, albeit this is nothing new in this world. Doubling climatologies for snowfall in the midatlantic is quite the rarity and statistically speaking alone the odds are terrible given the past few winters. All I read are people looking for any factor that would signal snow, and then assume that those forcings will dominate the pattern. 

 

Who exactly are these people?

 

I haven't seen anyone in this subforum doing any of that, or calling for 200% of normal snowfall.

[Fozz]

Using the last two years' snowfall as a factor in any seasonal outlook would be rather foolish. It's just as bad as using the "we're due index" after a run of lean years to help inform an outlook.

 

Totally agreed. 

[Blizzard92]

Who exactly are these people?

 

I haven't seen anyone in this subforum doing any of that, or calling for 200% of normal snowfall.

Oh, I am not calling anyone out by any means. Hence, why I shouldn't post in these forums, too sensitive. 

 

Anyways, wavelengths will likely be predominately +ENSO forced, but it will be interesting to see if other teleconnections can set up for some snowy periods.

[Fozz]

It's difficult to discern the scope of influence from something like AGW. I just know that it exists and is quantifiable albeit not by myself or current technology on a numerical event by event basis. Adding something like a strong el nino with a raging pac ontop can only mean bad things for snow lovers.

 

A strong El Nino can bring either a historic winter or a snowless winter, so what you're saying isn't really true. Either extreme is possible.

 

As far as the Pacific, there's been a great deal of discussion about the placement of the GOA/Aleutian vortex, and that will play a big role in how this winter turns out. To pretend to know the outcome at this point is foolish.

[Fozz]

Oh, I am not calling anyone out by any means. Hence, why I shouldn't post in these forums, too sensitive. 

 

Anyways, wavelengths will likely be predominately +ENSO forced, but it will be interesting to see if other teleconnections can set up for some snowy periods.

 

Oh ok, fair enough. And you're more than welcome to post your thoughts... we appreciate your contributions.

 

As far as teleconnections, I agree that much of it is up in the air at this point.

[famartin]

KGED.

 

The microclimate is caused by the bay wind which was blowing off warm water from the summer but yeah other locales simply radiate more efficiently among themselves. Diminishing returns as you head deeper into winter tho and often a cooling effect in late winter/early spring locally.

 

Even now it's a sultry 60 degrees outside, probably a near record high min.

 

In 1985, Georgetown went from 10/30 to 11/24 between freezes.

 

All other years back to 1946 had at least one freeze in early or mid November.

[AvantHiatus]

A strong El Nino can bring either a historic winter or a snowless winter, so what you're saying isn't really true. Either extreme is possible.

 

As far as the Pacific, there's been a great deal of discussion about the placement of the GOA/Aleutian vortex, and that will play a big role in how this winter turns out. To pretend to know the outcome at this point is foolish.

It's challenging to benchmark a snowless winter with other similar years if snow is your key metric. But conceivably what you imply is true but it's just as likely as beating out 11-12 for warmth. We are never more than a few indices away from the West Coast setup of 14-15 and it can happen here, infact it's even easier in most cases due to the laditude discrepancy and the westerlies blowing off the conus.

 

I think Alaska reached 70/80 degrees more than once during the past couple winters.

 

Both scenarios are unlikely so we should aim for something in the middle to have the greatest chance of being correct.

[Ian]

Who exactly are these people?

 

I haven't seen anyone in this subforum doing any of that, or calling for 200% of normal snowfall.

Maybe you should look harder. Most of the official outlooks that are out as of this point are snowy in the region. I don't think we were referring to this forum specifically. I haven't really seen any forecasts in this forum other than a few.. then again I never leave the mid-atlantic subforum anymore. It's a lie IMO to say that most people here aren't snow lovers. If that doesn't impact thoughts at all then kudos as it's hard to master. There's a lot of warmth out there for us to tap this winter that's for sure.

[Bob Chill]

Ian, I would say just about 100% of our sub thinks this winter will be near to above normal temp wise for DJF. Maybe we squeeze 1 BN month in the mix but it would shock me if this winter is remembered as cold.

The optimism comes from the chance at a big moisture laden snow storm or 2. That's about it. No way we nickel and dime to big totals like last year imo.

[Fozz]

Maybe you should look harder. Most of the official outlooks that are out as of this point are snowy in the region. I don't think we were referring to this forum specifically. I haven't really seen any forecasts in this forum other than a few.. then again I never leave the mid-atlantic subforum anymore. It's a lie IMO to say that most people here aren't snow lovers. If that doesn't impact thoughts at all then kudos as it's hard to master. There's a lot of warmth out there for us to tap this winter that's for sure.

 

I've seen a few laughable outlooks but most of them are a mix between cold/snowy and mild/wet. And of course I'm not denying that most people here are snow lovers, but I don't think most are wishcasters... posters in this forum tend to be realistic and level-headed for the most part (with long range outlooks, not in the middle of winter when much of the forum is emotionally invested ), and most have been through this hobby for years and sometimes decades, through thick and thin.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Maybe you should look harder. Most of the official outlooks that are out as of this point are snowy in the region. I don't think we were referring to this forum specifically. I haven't really seen any forecasts in this forum other than a few.. then again I never leave the mid-atlantic subforum anymore. It's a lie IMO to say that most people here aren't snow lovers. If that doesn't impact thoughts at all then kudos as it's hard to master. There's a lot of warmth out there for us to tap this winter that's for sure.

You are certainly one of the most level headed posters here. There's always a lot of warmth to tap if the upper pattern is favorable for it. There's also a lot of cold to tap. I'm not sure how reliable any of these long range outlooks really are. As you like to say, we can't know. I'm not sure we ever will be able to. Hindsight works well though.

My understanding of El Niño patterns, limited of course, is that they are usually wet along the east/se coast. This will be my 8th winter in this region. In every year that I've had above normal precip I've had above normal snow. I'll take my chances with stormy. Might not work out, but dry sure as heck won't.

[mitchnick]

You are certainly one of the most level headed posters here. There's always a lot of warmth to tap if the upper pattern is favorable for it. There's also a lot of cold to tap. I'm not sure how reliable any of these long range outlooks really are. As you like to say, we can't know. I'm not sure we ever will be able to. Hindsight works well though.

My understanding of El Niño patterns, limited of course, is that they are usually wet along the east/se coast. This will be my 8th winter in this region. In every year that I've had above normal precip I've had above normal snow. I'll take my chances with stormy. Might not work out, but dry sure as heck won't.

Do you have any relatives who used to live in Leesburg?

[Ian]

Ian, I would say just about 100% of our sub thinks this winter will be near to above normal temp wise for DJF. Maybe we squeeze 1 BN month in the mix but it would shock me if this winter is remembered as cold.

The optimism comes from the chance at a big moisture laden snow storm or 2. That's about it. No way we nickel and dime to big totals like last year imo.

Could be the case I wasn't really referring to the forum in my original comment. I do think we have some of the most realistic posters/forecasters of all the regions because we tend to get regular snow and regular heartache. Not quite the same north or south.

[Ian]

You are certainly one of the most level headed posters here. There's always a lot of warmth to tap if the upper pattern is favorable for it. There's also a lot of cold to tap. I'm not sure how reliable any of these long range outlooks really are. As you like to say, we can't know. I'm not sure we ever will be able to. Hindsight works well though.

My understanding of El Niño patterns, limited of course, is that they are usually wet along the east/se coast. This will be my 8th winter in this region. In every year that I've had above normal precip I've had above normal snow. I'll take my chances with stormy. Might not work out, but dry sure as heck won't.

Well it could work out but as is it does seem warm wants to outweigh cold. Strong Ninos do tend to overwhelm the overall pattern and this one is chock full of warm all over thus far. It also limits our cold source in theory at least.

I'm not really convinced vs boom or bust.. Tho I'd tend to favor those over a close to avg year. To have high hopes for boom I think we want at least a little early season (pre 2016) snow on the books.

Plus you live far enough west and at enough elevation this might not be as big a worry.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well it could work out but as is it does seem warm wants to outweigh cold. Strong Ninos do tend to overwhelm the overall pattern and this one is chock full of warm all over thus far. It also limits our cold source in theory at least.

I'm not really convinced vs boom or bust.. Tho I'd tend to favor those over a close to avg year. To have high hopes for boom I think we want at least a little early season (pre 2016) snow on the books.

Plus you live far enough west and at enough elevation this might not be as big a worry.

My memory of 9/10 was that it was pretty warm until early December. Am I incorrect on that?

I just looked at local stats for 9/10. November was well above normal temps after a well below October. So far out here October is slightly below and that will likely go down more given the forecast for the upcoming week. The three winter months that year were all 2-4 degrees below with much above precip. Is the thinking that this Nino is just too strong?

[mitchnick]

There's been some discussion about an impending warm November and the weenie angst that goes along with above normal temps during winter/near winter months. Well, weenies relax, as history says a warm November is exactly what we want this year.

The NINO being the number 1 factor this winter, I decided to look at snowfall in NINO winter's with cold vs. warm Novembers. However, I limited my research (if you want to call it that lol) to only moderate and strong NINOs. I had to cut it off somewhere and since this winter is hands-down strong(+?), I did not include weak or borderline weal/moderate winters. Therefore, winters that peak with +1.0C or less were excluded. That left me with 9 winters (excluding this year) since 1950. Then I compared the average monthly November temp at BWI of 46.5 degree each year, and that season's snowfall to BWI's average of 20.1". It gave me the list below.

WINTER 3.4 PEAK NOV. TEMP SNOWFALL

57/58 +1.7C 47.2 43.0"

63/64 +1.2C 47.3 51.8"

65/66 +1.8C 45.6 32.8"

72/73 +2.0C 43.2 1.2"

82/83 +2.1C 48.4 35.6"

87/88 +1.6C 47.8 20.4"

91/92 +1.6C 45.8 4.1"

97/98 +2.3C 43.7 3.2"

02/03 +1.3C 44.4 58.1"

09/10 +1.3C 49.7 77.0"

I have bolded all the Novembers with AN temps, and what do we have? Above normal snow EVERY YEAR. Now, the other mod/strong NINO winters all had below normal November temps and some were great and others our well known epic fails. So, what the numbers say is that you don't have to have an above normal November to have above normal snows in a mod/strong NINO. But if you do, you (BWI) get above normal snows. It is obviously a limited number of years, but I do find it encouraging that it works all the way back to 1957, and we've had a few regime changes over those almost 60 years. So Global Warmer and AvantHiatus, bring on the November heat!

I did not check to see if it works at DCA. If not every year, then almost all should work is my gut.

P.S. Links where I obtained my numbers

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwitemps.pdf

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

[EastCoast NPZ]

As long as it cools by T-day, warm November is nothing to fear.

[packbacker]

     There's been some discussion about an impending warm November and the weenie angst that goes along with above normal temps during winter/near winter months. Well, weenies relax, as history says a warm November is exactly what we want this year.

     The NINO being the number 1 factor this winter, I decided to look at snowfall in NINO winter's with cold vs. warm Novembers. However, I limited my research (if you want to call it that lol) to only moderate and strong NINOs. I had to cut it off somewhere and since this winter is hands-down strong(+?), I did not include weak or borderline weal/moderate winters. Therefore, winters that peak with +1.0C or less were excluded. That left me with 9 winters (excluding this year) since 1950. Then I compared the average monthly November temp at BWI of 46.5 degree each year, and that season's snowfall to BWI's average of 20.1". It gave me the list below.

 

WINTER     3.4 PEAK     NOV. TEMP     SNOWFALL

57/58          +1.7C           47.2                 43.0"

63/64          +1.2C           47.3                 51.8"

65/66           +1.8C           45.6                 32.8"

72/73           +2.0C           43.2                   1.2"

82/83          +2.1C           48.4                 35.6"

87/88          +1.6C           47.8                 20.4"

91/92           +1.6C           45.8                   4.1"

97/98           +2.3C           43.7                   3.2"

02/03           +1.3C           44.4                 58.1"

09/10          +1.3C           49.7                 77.0"

 

   I have bolded all the November's with AN temps, and what do we have? Above normal snow EVERY YEAR. Now, the other mod/strong NINO winters all had below normal November temps and some were great and others our well known epic fails. So, what the numbers say is that you don't have to have an above normal November to have above normal snows in a mod/strong NINO. But if you do, you (BWI) get above normal snows. It is obviously a limited number of years, but I do find it encouraging that it works all the way back to 1957, and we've had a few regime changes over those almost 60 years. So Global Warmer and AvantHiatus, bring on the November heat!

 

Was looking at this earlier for RDU...similar results, pretty much if it's a ENSO+ you want a warm Nov.  It's actually fairly amazing when looking at what happens in a mod+ nino with above avg Nov.

 

I am sure a red tagger is going to jump in and throw the "small sample size" at us here shortly, which it is so caveats as usual apply...

[mitchnick]

Was looking at this earlier for RDU...similar results, pretty much if it's a ENSO+ you want a warm Nov. It's actually fairly amazing when looking at what happens in a mod+ nino with above avg Nov.

I am sure a red tagger is going to jump in and throw the "small sample size" at us here shortly, which it is so caveats as usual apply...

The underlying problem with the "small sample size" argument is that when you are looking for analogs, you are always going to have a small sample size because you are intentionally limiting it for the closest match. I mean how many years are there with enso greater than 1c degree in enso 3.4? Not many! Same can be said for Nina less than -1c.

[AvantHiatus]

Hey, it's all good. Don't fear a warm winter....it is what it is. Although it's comforting knowing that it will inevitably happen again so we can emotionally prepare for heartbreak. This is not the basis of my thinking, just some food for thought. I don' think the analogs above are a clear-cut example due to the strength of the current ENSO event, especially in relation to 09-10.

 

We also seem to be setting into a long-term +NAO pattern. Remove any of the magical pieces of 09-10 and you end up with a meh' winter.

[packbacker]

Hey, it's all good. Don't fear a warm winter....it is what it is. Although it's comforting knowing that it will inevitably happen again so we can emotionally prepare for heartbreak. This is not the basis of my thinking, just some food for thought. I don' think the analogs above are a clear-cut example due to the strength of the current ENSO event, especially in relation to 09-10.

 

We also seem to be setting into a long-term +NAO pattern. Remove any of the magical pieces of 09-10 and you end up with a meh' winter.

We should be ending a 30 year stretch of predominantly +NAO, although the past few winters have said not so fast...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif