Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'd tend to side with you. And, do we base an AN snow winter on repeating the 82-83 Megaopolis storm? Potential and luck right? We need both more often than not. Based on history I would say this winter has potential. Luck has no predictive attributes. Do we bet for or against the spread? Vegas would struggle with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'll play with the average Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American index values when I have more time to see how well they correlate. Trying to predict winter annual snowfall for DCA is difficult to near impossible before seeing what pattern sets up and even then, we need luck to have a big snowfall year. In one of the really bad strong nino years we even had a negative AO and pretty much struck out while in 1982-1983, one storm pushed us well above normal. I have this image saved from my 2014 presentation at the Amex Conference....I didn't update it for last winter (click to enlarge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 My presence will ruin it, I seem to be a winter-killer I'll ready the sacrificial altar to appease the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The first week of Nov is looking even warmer on the ensembles than the last few days. It's the type of pattern that will make winter weenies nervous if it verifies. All the cold is bottled up in Eurasia as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The first week of Nov is looking even warmer on the ensembles than the last few days. It's the type of pattern that will make winter weenies nervous if it verifies. All the cold is bottled up in Eurasia as well.Well shouldn't make "sensible weenies" nervous since 10/09 ended up almost 1 degree BN and 11/09 over 3 degrees AN at BWI. Not unusual at all for mod-strong Niños. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 We always do better Jan-March anyway. Nice that it looks like we'll be wet and cooler during that timeframe.One can always hope for this - not sure if the analogs fit however: http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1979/Vol04No4/1979v004no04-Foster-Leffler.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Well shouldn't make "sensible weenies" nervous since 10/09 ended up almost 1 degree BN and 11/09 over 3 degrees AN at BWI. Not unusual at all for mod-strong Niños. The pattern showing up has shades of 09. Aleutian ridge, ridge east, and +ao/nao. Coldest air over russia. Not identical or anything but some similarities. If the pv gets stuck over russia this winter then we better get some ao/nao help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The first week of Nov is looking even warmer on the ensembles than the last few days. It's the type of pattern that will make winter weenies nervous if it verifies. All the cold is bottled up in Eurasia as well. I wouldn't worry too much right now. nothing exciting winter wise was going on until late November in 09 either. If a month from now it's endless torch and no cold in conus I might get more concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I wouldn't worry too much right now. nothing exciting winter wise was going on until late November in 09 either. If a month from now it's endless torch and no cold in conus I might get more concerned. December has been sucky in general for awhile. I think we'll get a backloaded winter in general outside a possible fluke in Nov or Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 December has been sucky in general for awhile. I think we'll get a backloaded winter in general outside a possible fluke in Nov or Dec.There is research suggesting that February is normally the most "wintry" month out of the winter when you have a strong/super El Niño in place along with a +QBO, like we have now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I think it might be our most wintry month generally, definitely an important one when it comes to big time snowstorms.I read that for the most part, feb is the month for cold/snow with a setup like this, nov, dec, and jan were pretty much lost causes, same with march. 1983 had the megalopolis blizzard in feb, so the research does have historical backing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 November is usually warm in Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 November is usually warm in Nino. Plus some residual inertia from summer. Record heat is easier than record cold in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Plus some residual inertia from summer. Record heat is easier than record cold in Nov. I'm assuming you mean global residual heat... since locally its -1.2 or -1.3 for October so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I'm assuming you mean global residual heat... since locally its -1.2 or -1.3 for October so far. The cold air source region has been Northeast Canada. If the PAC rips through the conus, it will go back to summer until around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I'm assuming you mean global residual heat... since locally its -1.2 or -1.3 for October so far. don't waste your time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 don't waste your time It has started. Posters in multiple subforums calling 50s cold. It will probably torch and and no one will post or even acknowledge it, in hopes that it will go away. The truth of the matter is that we should aim to be objective at all times so we can do more than call for snowy and cold every time a el nino is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 It has started. Posters in multiple subforums calling 50s cold. It will probably torch and and no one will post or even acknowledge it, in hopes that it will go away. The truth of the matter is that we should aim to be objective at all times so we can do more than call for snowy and cold every time a el nino is developing. True. Im still fixing my house from Joaquin being unable to recurve. Stop the nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 True. Im still fixing my house from Joaquin being unable to recurve. Stop the nonsense. Winner ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 True. Im still fixing my house from Joaquin being unable to recurve. Stop the nonsense. Your house would of still been there if Joaquin came ashore. This is something that you made up on your own terms. As for that prediction, nobody is perfect. DT made a solid call but he has failed hard in the past. What I see now between the CFS November 500mb and Aleutian Low position and strength argues for a winter unlike the past two years, save for the quirky warm December of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 It has started. Posters in multiple subforums calling 50s cold. It will probably torch and and no one will post or even acknowledge it, in hopes that it will go away. The truth of the matter is that we should aim to be objective at all times so we can do more than call for snowy and cold every time a el nino is developing. I assume you mean lows? Because 50s for highs around this time of year is in fact "cold". Highs in the 50s don't become average until early November for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I assume you mean lows? Because 50s for highs around this time of year is in fact "cold". Highs in the 50s don't become average until early November for most of the region. We had two days of highs around 50 during the entire month thus far closer to where the average was higher. It's really not cold atm. Wednesday and Thursday were in the 70s. Either way, it doesn't matter since the weather doesn't follow predictable patterns anymore. We may not freeze again until Thanksgiving or later, after freezing on October 19th. That seems bizarre to me but I want more information to verify if this has ever happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I assume you mean lows? Because 50s for highs around this time of year is in fact "cold". Highs in the 50s don't become average until early November for most of the region. It's all AGW man. Everything. Warm cold rain snow drought and floods. Be objective though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 We had two days of highs around 50 during the entire month thus far closer to where the average was higher. It's really not cold atm. Wednesday and Thursday were in the 70s. Either way, it doesn't matter since the weather doesn't follow predictable patterns anymore. We may not freeze again until Thanksgiving or later, after freezing on October 19th. That seems bizarre to me but I want more information to verify if this has ever happened before. Officially Cape May was only 33 this month. In late October 2011 Cape May hit 30, then didn't freeze again until December. 1985 was another one. 1983 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Officially Cape May was only 33 this month. In late October 2011 Cape May hit 30, then didn't freeze again until December. 1985 was another one. 1983 too. Good info, my focus is region wide. Cape May has a distinct microclimate but not enough to warrant a distinct discussion. For the most part, the freeze occured already. What is the longest streak in days? Specifics please. We won't know if and when the record is broken until way down the road. We all know what happened in 2011-2012.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Freezes are often influenced by microclimate since they are usually radiational nights. Any one spot could have an anomaly, it's a bit difficult to look at a whole region. I did Cape May because that is your locale. Pick another location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Freezes are often influenced by microclimate since they are usually radiational nights. Any one spot could have an anomaly, it's a bit difficult to look at a whole region. I did Cape May because that is your locale. Pick another location. KGED. The microclimate is caused by the bay wind which was blowing off warm water from the summer but yeah other locales simply radiate more efficiently among themselves. Diminishing returns as you head deeper into winter tho and often a cooling effect in late winter/early spring locally. Even now it's a sultry 60 degrees outside, probably a near record high min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 For the love of God why are some of you wasting your time on his trolling drivel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 We had two days of highs around 50 during the entire month thus far closer to where the average was higher. It's really not cold atm. Wednesday and Thursday were in the 70s. Either way, it doesn't matter since the weather doesn't follow predictable patterns anymore. We may not freeze again until Thanksgiving or later, after freezing on October 19th. That seems bizarre to me but I want more information to verify if this has ever happened before. Try 10/31, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Try 10/31, dude. We'll see. The Apps crew doesn't understand how much ocean variability affects the conus. It will be game over without the -EPO. Imagine, all the air masses originating from this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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