Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[GaWx]

The we're due argument has no merit.

 

 I guess that I'm saying that I largely agree but not close to 100% by any means. The fact that the last two winters have been cold, alone, doesn't for the most part increase (or decrease for that matter) the chance that the next winter will not be cold imo based on actual history.

 

 Now, this having been said, there are multiyear cycle like the PDO that imo mean that it is far from 100% independence. Note that since at least 1950, La Nina's have tended to occur in clumps, much more than have El Nino's. Since La Nina's have averaged a bit warm in areas like DC and certainly down into the SE, there probably is a slight increase in the chance of a subsequent warm winter when the prior one was a warm La Nina. That also means that not having a warm La Nina, alone, for the prior winter probably decreases ever so slightly the chance of a subsequent warm winter. So, in addition to the PDO, ENSO, alone, likely results in some interdependence from winter to winter.

 

 Based on all factors (mainly independence but with some dependence), I'd say that the chance of 2015-6 being cold is a bit higher than the normal 1/4.

[Bob Chill]

The we're due argument has no merit.

From a hedging perspective at ranges where nobody has a clue what is going to happen, it has a lot of merit.

I'll go warmer and not as snowy as the last two winters and stick with it.

Also, over time we will always regress to the averages so right now we're due at some point in time.

[GaWx]

From a hedging perspective at ranges where nobody has a clue what is going to happen, it has a lot of merit.

I'll go warmer and not as snowy as the last two winters and stick with it.

Also, over time we will always regress to the averages so right now we're due at some point in time.

 

Bob,

1. Just comparing to last winter: I agree that going warmer than the prior cold winter and less snowy than the well above median (and above the mean, too) prior winter's snow is easily the smartest call. Looking at just temperatures, I'd estimate that no more than ~25% of winters are as cold as this past winter anomalywise. Your call, alone, does in no way contradict my call for a somewhat higher chance than the 25% normal for a cold winter. Somewhat higher than 25% may still only be, say, 30-40%. So, that would still mean a 60-70% chance for next winter to not be as cold.

 

2. I mainly disagree with your last point about being "due" at some point based on my posts earlier in this thread. Just based on the fact that we've had two chilly winters in a row in no way imo reduces the chance that next winter will be another cold one vs. the longterm average chance of near 25%. Maybe I'm misinterpreting you (please correct me if I'm wrong), but your last point implies a less than normal chance (<25% by my calcs) at a cold 2015-6 winter.

 Regarding the snow part, itself, I'm less knowledgeable, especially for DC. However, I'd still have my doubts that it being snowy the last winter or two, alone, would mean a lower than normal chance of that for 2015-6 even though the odds of it being less snowy than last winter are probably pretty high just based on longterm averages.

[Fozz]

I don't really buy the "we're due" argument either.

The Law of Averages is a fallacy for the most part, both with weather and with other things. If you've flipped a coin four times and gotten heads every single time, it doesn't alter the chance of getting a tails from the next flip.

 

After all, getting two very hot summers in 2010 and 2011 didn't stop summer 2012 from also being hot.

[Fozz]

As far as next winter, I agree that it will probably be warmer than the last two (hard not to be), but if we're getting El Nino, I'm not going to rule out getting more snow than this past winter if it turns out favorably. 2013-14 will be very hard to beat, especially in the colder burbs.

[Disc]

We need a spring/severe weather 2016 thread.

[Bob Chill]

Larry, I'm not discounting a single thing you've posted. I honestly don't have a single thought about next winter.

The way long range enso forecasting has gone lately, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if we end up in Nina conditions by Dec.

[WinterWxLuvr]

From a hedging perspective at ranges where nobody has a clue what is going to happen, it has a lot of merit.

I'll go warmer and not as snowy as the last two winters and stick with it.

Also, over time we will always regress to the averages so right now we're due at some point in time.

I don't agree here. Yes, over time, we will approach averages. That's the definition of avg. for one, I don't think a 30 year avg is long enough.

I agree that long range is not much more than throwing darts. Most were convinced that we'd see a Nino and blocking last winter. That worked out well.

I'll go +/- 1.5 on temps and above on snow and stick with it.

Now we may very well see a string of warm, snowless winters, 5 out 7 or something like that, but I don't thin that a couple of good winters in a row has any bearing on next winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

As far as next winter, I agree that it will probably be warmer than the last two (hard not to be), but if we're getting El Nino, I'm not going to rule out getting more snow than this past winter if it turns out favorably. 2013-14 will be very hard to beat, especially in the colder burbs.

Right. It's pretty easy to see not getting a -9 for Feb. 2010 shows we don't need that to get a powerhouse winter.

[Jebman]

Next winter we will see another west based ridge like the past two winters and DC will get hammered with snows and cold. The WD Index will finally come due in January 2017.

 

We're good. We got at least one more excellent winter in us. Ready the shovels and Bob Chill you better have TEN Faces good to go. You're gonna need em. Because The Winter of 2015-2016 is going to be a Ten Face Winter.

[MDstorm]

I don't see how anyone can even try to predict the upcoming winter until the all important Siberian snow cover reveals itself.

[Ian]

I think JB tweeted the CFS is favorable for early snow in that region.

[Absolute Humidity]

I don't see how anyone can even try to predict the upcoming winter until the all important Siberian snow cover reveals itself.

Yeah especially considering how well that worked for uber -AO we had this year.

[mitchnick]

I know one thing, if the current state of the PDO holds through next winter, CA is going to be really fooked this time next year. Of course it is great for us especially with a Nino.

[ravensrule]

I know one thing, if the current state of the PDO holds through next winter, CA is going to be really fooked this time next year. Of course it is great for us especially with a Nino.

If we get more snow, who the hell cares if CA has to drink their own piss.

[WxUSAF]

If we get more snow, who the hell cares if CA has to drink their own piss.

Well I like food and don't like paying $5 for a tomato.  

[Fozz]

I'm hoping for a 2009-10 scenario which would be a win-win for both us and California

[wxdude64]

I'm hoping for a 2009-10 scenario which would be a win-win for both us and California

Yep. That would be good!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Doesn't a Nino help Ca?

[ravensrule]

Well I like food and don't like paying $5 for a tomato.  

Good point, but would you pay $5 for a tomato if it meant a 09/10 repeat?.

[mitchnick]

Doesn't a Nino help Ca?

it can sometimes if you get the proverbial pinapple express

but if the PDO is too high, like the last 2 years, it can trump it

[GaWx]

Doesn't a Nino help Ca?

In general, stronger Nino's help CA more than weaker ones. The closest thing to a guarantee of rainfall help would come with very strong ones like 1982-3 and 1997-8. Five of the six strong ones since 1950 have averaged near 40% above normal precip in winter in LA:

http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-el-nino-forecasts-20141206-story.html

Of course, the history of stronger second year Nino's suggests there'd be less chance of a cold winter in the E US than if it ends up peaking within weak to low end moderate.

[T. August]

Well I like food and don't like paying $5 for a tomato.  

Snow > Food (especially tomatoes)

[mattie g]

Strong Nino and a favorable PDO will lead to more snow in my backyard than last year. Everyone else will be crying in their Wheaties, and I'll be pissing in their Cheerios.

[mitchnick]

Yikes!

Click on "September" in the "NINO3.4 Outlook" box in the middle of the page

This website updated on 4/16

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

[WinterWxLuvr]

Personally, I'd take the last two winters every winter for the rest of my life.

[GaWx]

New tweet from JB:

"Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

@energyrabbit heh, remember who you talked to way back in summer about how nasty winter would be for the east this year. Another next yr"

However, the latest weekly and current 3.4 situation suggest that the chance for a weak to low end moderate peak associated with the 2nd year of the Niño is dropping while the chance for high end moderate to strong is increasing. With weak to low end moderate and a solid +PDO, the frequency of really cold E US winters has been quite a bit higher than that for strong/high end moderate. Only 1957-8 and 2009-10 come to mind for the latter. Well, you guessed it, he may be hinting at 1957-8 as a good analog for 2015-6. One thing to keep in mind is neither of 1957-8 and 2009-10 was a 2nd year Niño. I haven't found any solid cold high end moderate to strong 2nd year Niño winters for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US. Could 2015-6 be the first one going back at least to the late 1800's?

[Ji]

New tweet from JB:

"Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

@energyrabbit heh, remember who you talked to way back in summer about how nasty winter would be for the east this year. Another next yr"

However, the latest weekly and current 3.4 situation suggest that the chance for a weak to low end moderate peak associated with the 2nd year of the Niño is dropping while the chance for high end moderate to strong is increasing. With weak to low end moderate and a solid +PDO, the frequency of really cold E US winters has been quite a bit higher than that for strong/high end moderate. Only 1957-8 and 2009-10 come to mind for the latter. Well, you guessed it, he may be hinting at 1957-8 as a good analog for 2015-6. One thing to keep in mind is neither of 1957-8 and 2009-10 was a 2nd year Niño. I haven't found any solid cold high end moderate to strong 2nd year Niño winters for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US. Could 2015-6 be the first one going back at least to the late 1800's?

was this really a 1st year nino that we just had?

[GaWx]

was this really a 1st year nino that we just had?

 

Ji,

 Yes, it was a lower end weak Nino per the ONI (peak of +0.7):

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[Deck Pic]

Means nothing at this point, but I'd say +AO, +NAO, +PDO, Mod - Strong Nino, Slightly above average temps, Snow between median and normal

 

For DCA

 

DEC: +1

January: +3

February: Normal

 

DCA Snow - 14"

 

Analogs, 1905-06, 1914-15, 1982-83