Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

I think our chances of something early are better than normal

If we get something early, I'd like it to be something that happens overnight so even the lowlands can cash in. Getting one of those historic early season tree-killing 4"-7" storms would be awesome.

[Deck Pic]

Firstly, good stuff on the Aleutian low.

I wouldn't mind an early snow at all. I suppose beggars can't be choosers, but it'd be nice not to fluke into something way early, but rather to get a nice setup for a couple/few weeks and make that count. I'm feeling that something like that might portend some really favorable chances further down the line.

Of course, cashing in on them around here is a different situation altogether, but at least we'd be in the game...

 

 

It will probably weaken at some point or move around...that's fine...where it is now portends well for blocking...it would be amusing in kind of a crappy way, if it gets stuck up near AK in November/Dec and we end up getting a greenland block...i think it is actually not out of the question...

[Deck Pic]

If we get something early, I'd like it to be something that happens overnight so even the lowlands can cash in. Getting one of those historic early season tree-killing 4"-7" storms would be awesome.

 

I don't know what our chances are historically off the top of my head, but I'd say we have a better than 50-50 shot at getting an area wide storm where DCA gets at least 1", before 12/10

[mitchnick]

If you want to sleep like a baby tonight, run through the various Canadian ensemble products on Tropical Tidbits. This link is the 500mb anomalies starting in November, but it has maps for precip and temps too. Pleasant dreams!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015100100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=157

[WhiteoutMD]

you cant complain with that at this time.

If you want to sleep like a baby tonight, run through the various Canadian ensemble products on Tropical Tidbits. This link is the 500mb anomalies starting in November, but it has maps for precip and temps too. Pleasant dreams!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015100100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=157

[Ian]

Along similar lines to Matt's post above here are Oct 500mb anoms for -AO DJF mod/strong Ninos and +AO DJF mod/strong Ninos. I also included one of all +AO DJF Ninos back to 1950 since the sample with +AO is small.

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Thanks Ian.  Seems like a pretty good correlation to those -AO Nino winters and what we're seeing this month.  Hopefully we won't have another 97-98 like fiasco where we have the indices right and there's no cold air in the whole hemisphere. 

[psuhoffman]

Thanks Ian. Seems like a pretty good correlation to those -AO Nino winters and what we're seeing this month. Hopefully we won't have another 97-98 like fiasco where we have the indices right and there's no cold air in the whole hemisphere.

I was up at psu hazleton that year and even at 1500 ft up there we didn't have any all snow events. Every storm was a rain snow mix. The higher spots in the poconos just north of there got crushed that year though. It was like the pac nw that year. Constant storms but maritime air and elevation dependent snows.

[Ian]

Patricia is nearing EPac record. Holders are Linda (1997) and Rick (2009). So... that seems like good bounds for the winter.

[mitchnick]

Patricia is nearing EPac record. Holders are Linda (1997) and Rick (2009). So... that seems like good bounds for the winter.

I was going to check on some analogs to it. Thx. It's just a shame that the bounds are our worst winter and best winter. Lol

[Bob Chill]

I was going to check on some analogs to it. Thx. It's just a shame that the bounds are our worst winter and best winter. Lol

 

Nah, add together and divide by 2. Simple. 

[Ian]

I was going to check on some analogs to it. Thx. It's just a shame that the bounds are our worst winter and best winter. Lol

Well they seemingly wouldn't jump there this update and it could be peaking now though the water is torchy all around there. Either way it's up there..

 

Off Mexico

Linda (1997, 160kt)

Rick (2009, 155kt)

Kenna (2002, 145kt)

Unnamed (1959/Oct27, 140kt)

Ava (1973, 140kt)

Guillermo (1997, 140kt)

Elida (2002, 140kt)

Hernan (2002, 140kt)

Celia (2010, 140kt)

Out closer to HI

Patsy (1959, 150kt)

John (1994, 150kt)

Emilia (1994 (140kt)

Gilma (1995, 140kt)

Ioke (2006, 140kt)

 

[mitchnick]

Nah, add together and divide by 2. Simple.

Somewhere at the beginning of this thread I said I thought we'd make it 3 in a row with AN snow. I'm sticking to it no matter how hard the Global Warmer tries to hope fire and Armageddon on us this winter.

[mitchnick]

Well they seemingly wouldn't jump there this update and it could be peaking now though the water is torchy all around there. Either way it's up there..

Off Mexico

Linda (1997, 160kt)

Rick (2009, 155kt)

Kenna (2002, 145kt)

Unnamed (1959/Oct27, 140kt)

Ava (1973, 140kt)

Guillermo (1997, 140kt)

Elida (2002, 140kt)

Hernan (2002, 140kt)

Celia (2010, 140kt)

Out closer to HI

Patsy (1959, 150kt)

John (1994, 150kt)

Emilia (1994 (140kt)

Gilma (1995, 140kt)

Ioke (2006, 140kt)

How did those two Nino storms gwt in the "off Mx" list? Odd. Well I have to admit, take out 97 and the 2 nina storms and that's the "who's who" list of winters around here. Me likey those odds.

[Bob Chill]

Somewhere at the beginning of this thread I said I thought we'd make it 3 in a row with AN snow. I'm sticking to it no matter how hard the Global Warmer tries to hope fire and Armageddon on us this winter.

I've been optimistic as well. Sure, it could be a door to door suckfest but proclaiming that anytime before Feb is dumb. If we are going to knock down 3 in a row I don't think you can have better odds than this year. I don't care about monthly temp departures. The last 2 winters have been plenty cold. Time to knock down climo snow again and we can say we had a 60's redux.

[mattie g]

Been reading the Kocin books on my road trip, and although a bit dated, data says Feb is our money month in terms of big snow. Last year proved that we can still rock late in the season.

I'm thinking we start Nov warm, maybe with a cool down/first real chance late Nov/very early Dec, warm back up to the end, and then get a -AO and enough of NAO support and stj juice to rock for a few weeks in late Jan or FEB. Just an early wag.

This is very much my train of thought, as well. I also think we could very well see a big storm affect the whole Eastern Seaboard in early-to-mid March, though a storm like that has a better chance than not of disappointing those of us within a few hours' drive of the coast and not at good latitude/elevation (i.e. an interior jackpot).

Like yours, it's an educated WAG, and if I get it wrong then no one will care (except me).

[Bob Chill]

The persistent area of +anoms off the baja coast stretching all the way to Canada is intriguing. It's unusual compared to other Nino's (of all strengths) to have such a large area in the east Pac above normal.

Looks like Patricia is putting that area to good use. Wow. Something to tuck away in the memory banks for the next time that region is roasting in the fall.

[usedtobe]

Some have already seen this post on my Facebook page. 

 

I thought I'd construct a scatter diagram showing the snowfall for each year since 1950 versus the December through February ONI index. For non mets, an ONI above 0.50 is usually indicative of an El Nino and an ONI below minus 0.5 is indicative of a LA Nina. The higher the number the stronger the El NIno. The correlation coefficient between the two variables on the plot is a whopping 0.254. In other words, the ONI (ENSO) explains only a minuscule amount ( a little over 6% ) of the variance in DCA winter snowfall. Other factors like blocking (the AO and NAO), where the ridge in the west sets up (the PNA and EPO) and just plain luck drive our yearly snow totals.  If you look at the ONI you'll see that the 6 largest values are split equally between much snowier than normal winters and below normal ones with two of the below normal being way below normal. 

 

 

 

 

I'll play with the average Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American index values when I have more time to see how well they correlate. Trying to predict winter annual snowfall for DCA is difficult to near impossible before seeing what pattern sets up and even then, we need luck to have a big snowfall year. In one of the really bad strong nino years we even had a negative AO and pretty much struck out while in 1982-1983, one storm pushed us well above normal. 

[Bob Chill]

Excellent post, Wes. Thank you.

Luck is always a major index south of 40N. Sometimes we get the combo of a terrible 3 month pattern combined with terrible luck and vice versa.

When I looked back at the mod+ to strong Nino's they were evenly split in the snow dept. Big+ or well below climo. We seem to have some of the big troubling early season signs not showing up so far at least. Doesn't mean a whole lot yet though.

[mitchnick]

Some have already seen this post on my Facebook page. 

 

I thought I'd construct a scatter diagram showing the snowfall for each year since 1950 versus the December through February ONI index. For non mets, an ONI above 0.50 is usually indicative of an El Nino and an ONI below minus 0.5 is indicative of a LA Nina. The higher the number the stronger the El NIno. The correlation coefficient between the two variables on the plot is a whopping 0.254. In other words, the ONI (ENSO) explains only a minuscule amount ( a little over 6% ) of the variance in DCA winter snowfall. Other factors like blocking (the AO and NAO), where the ridge in the west sets up (the PNA and EPO) and just plain luck drive our yearly snow totals.  If you look at the ONI you'll see that the 6 largest values are split equally between much snowier than normal winters and below normal ones with two of the below normal being way below normal. 

 

DCA_SNOW VS ONI index.png

 

 

 

I'll play with the average Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American index values when I have more time to see how well they correlate. Trying to predict winter annual snowfall for DCA is difficult to near impossible before seeing what pattern sets up and even then, we need luck to have a big snowfall year. In one of the really bad strong nino years we even had a negative AO and pretty much struck out while in 1982-1983, one storm pushed us well above normal. 

What this scatter brained weenie sees from that scatter diagram, however, is that there were only 4 NINA's with 20" or more snow vs. 10 NINO's and our best snows (on the whole) were in NINO's, 95/96 being the only exception (I'm assuming the 40"+ year is 95/96.) Hence, I'll always roll the dice with a NINO (iow, keep unrealistic weenie snow dreams alive.)

[Bob Chill]

Mitch, you will like this animation. Regions 3.4 - 4 have definitely improved all month. Tropical forcing along the eq pac has been far enough west the last few months to not get that sinking feeling as well. It's hard to proclaim a sucky winter is on the way at this point. 

 

[Cold Rain]

^ The cold blob in the north Atlantic looks to be taking a bit of a hit too.

[mitchnick]

Mitch, you will like this animation. Regions 3.4 - 4 have definitely improved all month. Tropical forcing along the eq pac has been far enough west the last few months to not get that sinking feeling as well. It's hard to proclaim a sucky winter is on the way at this point. 

 

Oct Enso Animation.gif

Yep, PAC looks better than a month ago. I've been saving the images from the Navy SSTA site. Bottom image is from 9/30 and top image is hot linked from today. GOA/PDO signature looks way better in addition to ENSO imho.

 

[famartin]

Some have already seen this post on my Facebook page. 

 

I thought I'd construct a scatter diagram showing the snowfall for each year since 1950 versus the December through February ONI index. For non mets, an ONI above 0.50 is usually indicative of an El Nino and an ONI below minus 0.5 is indicative of a LA Nina. The higher the number the stronger the El NIno. The correlation coefficient between the two variables on the plot is a whopping 0.254. In other words, the ONI (ENSO) explains only a minuscule amount ( a little over 6% ) of the variance in DCA winter snowfall. Other factors like blocking (the AO and NAO), where the ridge in the west sets up (the PNA and EPO) and just plain luck drive our yearly snow totals.  If you look at the ONI you'll see that the 6 largest values are split equally between much snowier than normal winters and below normal ones with two of the below normal being way below normal. 

 

DCA_SNOW VS ONI index.png

 

 

 

I'll play with the average Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American index values when I have more time to see how well they correlate. Trying to predict winter annual snowfall for DCA is difficult to near impossible before seeing what pattern sets up and even then, we need luck to have a big snowfall year. In one of the really bad strong nino years we even had a negative AO and pretty much struck out while in 1982-1983, one storm pushed us well above normal. 

I guess the one take-away is that if there is a mod-strong La Nina, game over.. otherwise its luck of the draw

[usedtobe]

I guess the one take-away is that if there is a mod-strong La Nina, game over.. otherwise its luck of the draw

I think that is the big take away.  I'm hoping for a straight this winter. 

[famartin]

I think that is the big take away.  I'm hoping for a straight this winter. 

My presence will ruin it, I seem to be a winter-killer

[WxUSAF]

Yep, PAC looks better than a month ago. I've been saving the images from the Navy SSTA site. Bottom image is from 9/30 and top image is hot linked from today. GOA/PDO signature looks way better in addition to ENSO imho.

 

 

The Nino pattern is interesting.  It's certainly not a pure east-based Nino like 97-98 and it's definitely not a pure Modoki like 09-10.  I guess it's a little bit like 02-03 in that it's trending more west-based as it evolves.  Maybe 82-83 is a fair match?

[Huffwx]

The Nino pattern is interesting.  It's certainly not a pure east-based Nino like 97-98 and it's definitely not a pure Modoki like 09-10.  I guess it's a little bit like 02-03 in that it's trending more west-based as it evolves.  Maybe 82-83 is a fair match?

 

 

I'd tend to side with you. And, do we base an AN snow winter on repeating the 82-83 Megaopolis storm?

[uncle W]

I'd rather have a strong el nino than a strong la nina...the first nine strongest la nina years had only one good year...2010-11...the first nine strongest el nino's had four good years...57-58, 2009-10, 1963-64, 1982-83...1965 and 1986-87 were normal up here but great in DC...three duds...1972-73, 1991-92 and 1997-98...The only other strong la nina with near normal snowfall was 1973-74...

[mitchnick]

I'd rather have a strong el nino than a strong la nina...the first nine strongest la nina years had only one good year...2010-11...the first nine strongest el nino's had four good years...57-58, 2009-10, 1963-64, 1982-83...1965 and 1986-87 were normal up here but great in DC...three duds...1972-73, 1991-92 and 1997-98...The only other strong la nina with near normal snowfall was 1973-74...

Me too...and LWX agrees.

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/ENSONAO_vs_Local_Winter_Snowfall