T. August Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/lwx/ENSONAO_vs_Local_Winter_Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Still doesn't look to bad here: Still got a ways to go but compare backwards and you'll see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Still got a ways to go but compare backwards and you'll see the differences. It was sort of fading at this time last year as well, but it held. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Still got a ways to go but compare backwards and you'll see the differences. Definite improvements in R3.4-4 over the last 30 days. If R1+2 tails off in Dec as some of the seasonal guidance suggests the overall config going into winter wouldn't be scary at all. At least not a hopes and dreams crusher. The persistent area of +anoms off the baja coast stretching all the way to Canada is intriguing. It's unusual compared to other Nino's (of all strengths) to have such a large area in the east Pac above normal. There is usually a large area of cool water somewhere in that region during +enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Still doesn't look to bad here: Nino is insane right now...the dailies I have access to have 3.4 at +2.59...highest it has been...I hope it gets warmer...I want to see an unprecedented strength..maybe we'll get a mega block and - EPO and DCA will get 100" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Definite improvements in R3.4-4 over the last 30 days. If R1+2 tails off in Dec as some of the seasonal guidance suggests the overall config going into winter wouldn't be scary at all. At least not a hopes and dreams crusher. The persistent area of +anoms off the baja coast stretching all the way to Canada is intriguing. It's unusual compared to other Nino's (of all strengths) to have such a large area in the east Pac above normal. There is usually a large area of cool water somewhere in that region during +enso. I want to be tracking something every night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Nino is insane right now...the dailies I have access to have 3.4 at +2.59...highest it has been...I hope it gets warmer...I want to see an unprecedented strength..maybe we'll get a mega block and - EPO and DCA will get 100" Yeah, it definitely appears the western region is getting warmer. I guess that could prove to be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Nino is insane right now...the dailies I have access to have 3.4 at +2.59...highest it has been...I hope it gets warmer...I want to see an unprecedented strength..maybe we'll get a mega block and - EPO and DCA will get 100" It's pretty unique in how this is not massively east based like '97-'98 or '82-'83...this is really a basin-wide event. The warm waters SW of CA I think are a good thing for active pattern/STJ...that's gonna make things more moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 New Winter outlook released...http://www.weathervue.net/winter-forecast-15-16.html Perhaps a bit too optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I want to be tracking something every night... Win lose or draw, I can't see how this winter will be boring. Even December should have its moments....or late Nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 It's pretty unique in how this is not massively east based like '97-'98 or '82-'83...this is really a basin-wide event. The warm waters SW of CA I think are a good thing for active pattern/STJ...that's gonna make things more moist. yes...We're going to see Region 4's temp go up in the next update, though I think it is already above 1 which is warmer than 97-98 ever got I believe....though It still hits a wall near the dateline..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Win lose or draw, I can't see how this winter will be boring. Even December should have its moments....or late Nov... I wouldn't be surprised if we get accumulating snow in the next 3-4 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 yes...We're going to see Region 4's temp go up in the next update, though I think it is already above 1 which is warmer than 97-98 ever got I believe....though It still hits a wall near the dateline..... '97-'98 birefly got to 1.1 for two weeks in late November on weeklies...the only time it was 1.0 or higher. We've been 1.0 or higher prettymuch the entire event in Nino 4 this year. It will probably go up a bit more. It should at least match the 1.3 that 2009-2010 put up...probably pass it. This will easily be the most basin wide of an event this strong we've seen. Hard to say exactly what consequences that will have...it's possible that we just end up hyping ourselves over it for nothign and we end up with a furnace for most of the winter anyway...but right now, I would probably lean against that idea. PArticularly when coupled with what the rest of the North Pacific looks like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 '97-'98 birefly got to 1.1 for two weeks in late November on weeklies...the only time it was 1.0 or higher. We've been 1.0 or higher prettymuch the entire event in Nino 4 this year. It will probably go up a bit more. It should at least match the 1.3 that 2009-2010 put up...probably pass it. This will easily be the most basin wide of an event this strong we've seen. Hard to say exactly what consequences that will have...it's possible that we just end up hyping ourselves over it for nothign and we end up with a furnace for most of the winter anyway...but right now, I would probably lean against that idea. PArticularly when coupled with what the rest of the North Pacific looks like right now. 1888-89 was likely a basin-wide super strong event.....The low was further west than 97-98, and even though the EPO was ugly, we got some decent air masses that winter...I was just looking at dailies.....even making climo adjustments, February would clearly be a below normal today....We only got 12.5" for the winter (4" of which fell in an April snow to rain deluge), but might have been a case of bad luck....Our sample size is small enough that I agree we shouldn't be discouraged.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 1888-89 was likely a basin-wide super strong event.....The low was further west than 97-98, and even though the EPO was ugly, we got some decent air masses that winter...I was just looking at dailies.....even making climo adjustments, February would clearly be a below normal today....We only got 12.5" for the winter (4" of which fell in an April snow to rain deluge), but might have been a case of bad luck....Our sample size is small enough that I agree we shouldn't be discouraged.... You have a remarkable memory for a man your age! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I increasingly like the idea of a see-saw winter with an active pattern... trick will be timing the SLPs with the troughs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if we get accumulating snow in the next 3-4 weeks.... Pretty much a total WAG but I'll throw it out there... The chances for a warm start to Nov look increasingly likely. The trough in the eastern GOA looks to move in by the end of the month and I'm thinking it becomes kinda stable and persists. Pac NW could be stormy early month but we'll probably be warm and boring for a time. After that we reload the +pna/-epo around mid month and then the southern stream shows it's face during the second half of the month. Like I said, just a wag but makes sense to me anyways...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 well, that's an entertaining map....forget that it's a 10 day, it's just nice to see it even this early in the season http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015102012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=627 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Yup. GFS still showing storminess in the east around that time too. Again, fantasy range, but could be a period of interest for someone if it held. the orange, red, and purple over the Pole is the most pleasing to my weenie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I've said it before but I'm really excited for this winter, possibly more than any other winter previously. I don't even care if its a dud- it'll just be interesting to see what type of winter this El Nino brings since we're in uncharted territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 well, that's an entertaining map....forget that it's a 10 day, it's just nice to see it even this early in the season http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015102012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=627 989 over lake michigan d9 deepening to 965 by the time it gets east of hudson bay. Not exactly something you wish for during winter. Front end thump of rain would nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 989 over lake michigan d9 deepening to 965 by the time it gets east of hudson bay. Not exactly something you wish for during winter. Front end thump of rain would nice thoughSee a couple posts above re NP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 WSI November through January forecast. http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/big-northeast-us-cold-of-last-two-winters-not-likely-this-year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I increasingly like the idea of a see-saw winter with an active pattern... trick will be timing the SLPs with the troughs... There's a lot of luck involved in El Ninos, if you take away the top 2 storms most of them aren't that great. It's all about it being cold enough when we do get a good storm track and not getting a suppressed storm track when there's good blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 There's a lot of luck involved in El Ninos, if you take away the top 2 storms most of them aren't that great. It's all about it being cold enough when we do get a good storm track and not getting a suppressed storm track when there's good blocking. That can be said about any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'm keeping an eye out for ~25 Nov-15 Dec. If we get a good system or two - even if they're sloppy - in that timeframe, then I think we might be able to get our tails up going into JFM. I fully understand that November and December "aren't winter months" around here, so I'm not going to get upset if we get jack s**t during that time. But if we do cash in, then it's Big Slick and I'm going all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'm keeping an eye out for ~25 Nov-15 Dec. If we get a good system or two - even if they're sloppy - in that timeframe, then I think we might be able to get our tails up going into JFM. I'm focused on the period that falls in between 4 Dec - 6 Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Not too weight it too much but the NPAC low is in a much better position recently than it was to correlate with a -AO...see 3rd image for where it was in 2nd half of Oct 2014....we don't want it there...we don't want an aleutian high.... Just to add - the Octobers in the 2nd image were followed by Gigantic -AO winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'm keeping an eye out for ~25 Nov-15 Dec. If we get a good system or two - even if they're sloppy - in that timeframe, then I think we might be able to get our tails up going into JFM. I fully understand that November and December "aren't winter months" around here, so I'm not going to get upset if we get jack s**t during that time. But if we do cash in, then it's Big Slick and I'm going all in. I think our chances of something early are better than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I think our chances of something early are better than normal Firstly, good stuff on the Aleutian low. I wouldn't mind an early snow at all. I suppose beggars can't be choosers, but it'd be nice not to fluke into something way early, but rather to get a nice setup for a couple/few weeks and make that count. I'm feeling that something like that might portend some really favorable chances further down the line. Of course, cashing in on them around here is a different situation altogether, but at least we'd be in the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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