Fozz Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The key will be the Aleutian low of course...if we have it the size of a supernova expanding into the GOA, then it's another '97-'98. If we keep it west though and not so gigantic, then we'll have some decent airmasses where Atlanta isn't colder than Montreal. The tropical forcing thus far has been west of the typical super ninos...and it's starting to get later in the autumn, so we should see it start to show signs of shifting much further east soon if it is going to. Still time to do so, but this hasn't acted like the others. We'll see if it ends up mattering or not. Noob question: what role does tropical forcing have in an El Nino? I don't know much about that topic. Also, if it somehow doesn't shift to the east, would that be a good sign for winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Noob question: what role does tropical forcing have in an El Nino? I don't know much about that topic. Also, if it somehow doesn't shift to the east, would that be a good sign for winter? ENSO as a whole is a coupled Ocean-Atmospheric process...tropical forcing can help evolve the ENSO event initially, and then there can be a feedback mechanism. As ENSO becomes more east-based, the warm SSTs can help deliver more convection further east which sustains the subsequent waves further east, and this in turn causes ENSO to become even more east-based with strong downwelling kelvin waves making it further east. This is why during stronger ENSO events (that are typically more east based), we see the tropical forcing set up well east of the dateline....the warmer water further east helps sustain it. This event has had the forcing fail to materialize further east thus far. There have been attempts by the models to do so, but they usually fizzle as we get closer. We haven't had the very strong feedback mechanism that often occurs...so this event is becoming more of a basin-wide event rather than a strongly east based event that years like 1982 and 1997 became. There is still time for it to change, but it's getting pretty deep into autumn. Of course, even if we get the forcing to stay west through the next month, there are still things that could screw up the winter. A couple ill-timed MJO waves can always be a pain or stratospheric troubles in the arctic that tug the Aleutian low northward can be issues. But so far, I think a fear of 1997-1998 should be kept a bit lower than maybe some have expressed during the last month. But all things equal, yes, keeping the forcing from spreading east would be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 ENSO as a whole is a coupled Ocean-Atmospheric process...tropical forcing can help evolve the ENSO event initially, and then there can be a feedback mechanism. As ENSO becomes more east-based, the warm SSTs can help deliver more convection further east which sustains the subsequent waves further east, and this in turn causes ENSO to become even more east-based with strong downwelling kelvin waves making it further east. This is why during stronger ENSO events (that are typically more east based), we see the tropical forcing set up well east of the dateline....the warmer water further east helps sustain it. This event has had the forcing fail to materialize further east thus far. There have been attempts by the models to do so, but they usually fizzle as we get closer. We haven't had the very strong feedback mechanism that often occurs...so this event is becoming more of a basin-wide event rather than a strongly east based event that years like 1982 and 1997 became. There is still time for it to change, but it's getting pretty deep into autumn. Of course, even if we get the forcing to stay west through the next month, there are still things that could screw up the winter. A couple ill-timed MJO waves can always be a pain or stratospheric troubles in the arctic that tug the Aleutian low northward can be issues. But so far, I think a fear of 1997-1998 should be kept a bit lower than maybe some have expressed during the last month. But all things equal, yes, keeping the forcing from spreading east would be a good sign. Thanks for the thoughtful response, that really helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I've never seen so many acorns in my life.. This winter is going to mean bidness.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I've never seen so many acorns in my life.. This winter is going to mean bidness.. Sent from my iPhone Ray Martin needs to chime in.. 4....3....2....1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Ray Martin needs to chime in.. 4....3....2....1...Too busy planting stuff, having a yard is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Too busy planting stuff, having a yard is nice Oaks have "mast years" where they produce exorbitant amounts of acorns, followed by years where they produce relatively few. Not much to do with the coming winter. http://www.hastingsreserve.org/oakstory/AmerSciMastKoenig_05.pdf While you were planting, I went "digging"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 While you were planting, I went "digging"...Digging what? I dug up my Verizon cable yesterday... Would've been nice if they had put it in the conduit which was buried a foot away, but no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Yet I can't stop fearing suppression. Otoh, if there is some suppression, it could be good by keeping us far enough north of the surface low pressure. I don't fear suppression in a strong el nino, but I'm sure there could be a first for anything.......2010 was more moderate. Nor do I feel the forcing will resemble '97 at all, but regardless, I have a feeling that we are about to experience four months inside of a meteorological classroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Really.. this thing. Sorry to focus on CA in this thread but hey #supernino c Crazy. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 The key will be the Aleutian low of course...if we have it the size of a supernova expanding into the GOA, then it's another '97-'98. If we keep it west though and not so gigantic, then we'll have some decent airmasses where Atlanta isn't colder than Montreal. The tropical forcing thus far has been west of the typical super ninos...and it's starting to get later in the autumn, so we should see it start to show signs of shifting much further east soon if it is going to. Still time to do so, but this hasn't acted like the others. We'll see if it ends up mattering or not. I was thinking while running composites for my latest blog update....it almost seems as though the size of the GOA low was more important than precise placement...the "good" el nino years didn't feature lows very geographically far from the ratter years; however the latter had much, much larger lows. Size matters... ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I was thinking while running composites for my latest blog update....it almost seems as though the size of the GOA low was more important than precise placement...the "good" el nino years didn't feature lows very geographically far from the ratter years; however the latter had much, much larger lows. Size matters... ; ) I think the PDO (assuming it stays hugely positive- it was again in Sep) might keep the low far enough west that it doesn't piss in our cereal, as it could force a neutral/neg EPO..the PDO/EPO correlation isn't rock solid like the PDO/PNA correlation, but it is there, especially in a strong +PDO.....40-41 was a strong nino for its time..and even using modern SST's as a base, it was pretty damn strong....probably stronger than any of the ones in the 50s/60s....And it had an obscene +PDO....Even though the low was a monstrosity, it didn't orient itself in a way that totally screwed us...It was a whatever winter here...warm dec/jan, cool/cold Feb/Mar.....average snow...but it could have been a mess...BTW -I'm only using this to make a point about the PAC...Personally, I do NOT expect the Atlantic to look anything like that..but even with a crappy Atlantic, I don't think that winter is 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 I'm not expecting a catastrophically bad (snowless) winter, we should get lucky at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Digging what? I dug up my Verizon cable yesterday... Would've been nice if they had put it in the conduit which was buried a foot away, but no... I went digging for your post mentioning the amount of acorns means nothing about the upcoming winter....if you've never had FiOS before you're gonna love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 I think the PDO (assuming it stays hugely positive- it was again in Sep) might keep the low far enough west that it doesn't piss in our cereal, as it could force a neutral/neg EPO..the PDO/EPO correlation isn't rock solid like the PDO/PNA correlation, but it is there, especially in a strong +PDO.....40-41 was a strong nino for its time..and even using modern SST's as a base, it was pretty damn strong....probably stronger than any of the ones in the 50s/60s....And it had an obscene +PDO....Even though the low was a monstrosity, it didn't orient itself in a way that totally screwed us...It was a whatever winter here...warm dec/jan, cool/cold Feb/Mar.....average snow...but it could have been a mess...BTW -I'm only using this to make a point about the PAC...Personally, I do NOT expect the Atlantic to look anything like that..but even with a crappy Atlantic, I don't think that winter is 97-98 4041.png Looks like greenland block was oversurpressing that year negative anomalies are too far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Looks like the blob is giving in a bit lately via GOA low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Looks like the blob is giving in a bit lately via GOA low. The low is not where we want it....We want it over the aleutians in October....Same thing happened last winter and everyone bit because of Cohen....I'm not saying it is the only factor, but It certainly gives me great pause when considering the AO/NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 The low is not where we want it....We want it over the aleutians in October....Same thing happened last winter and everyone bit because of Cohen....I'm not saying it is the only factor, but It certainly gives me great pause when considering the AO/NAO... Not my forte but last week's anoms def not the greatest. Does seem to be a recurring theme going forward too tho it's not necessarily super well established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Not my forte but last week's anoms def not the greatest. Does seem to be a recurring theme going forward too tho it's not necessarily super well established. That location is not as bad as I thought over the last week.....usually you want an aleutian low in Oct for a winter -AO/NAO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 That location is not as bad as I thought over the last week.....usually you want an aleutian low in Oct for a winter -AO/NAO.. Can we get the same cold air supply that we had last winter (the same setup) during a Nino? Is it possible to have the same -EPO and an active southern stream? If so, sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Can we get the same cold air supply that we had last winter (the same setup) during a Nino? Is it possible to have the same -EPO and an active southern stream? If so, sign me up. Yes...see 2002-2003 winter. This would be hard to repeat though...that is about as good as you can get in the N PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 That location is not as bad as I thought over the last week.....usually you want an aleutian low in Oct for a winter -AO/NAO.. If the ensemble means over the next 15 days are at least partially correct then the h5 mean for Oct would look pretty decent overall. The progs are for persistent higher heights in the epo region even with some undercutting of the +pna. While it would be nice to see the aleutian low further west, the probable overall look for the month certainly doesn't look anything like the bad big nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Yes...see 2002-2003 winter. This would be hard to repeat though...that is about as good as you can get in the N PAC. This years enso numbers are projected quite a bit higher. Does that increase/decrease the chances of getting a good setup like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 This years enso numbers are projected quite a bit higher. Does that increase/decrease the chances of getting a good setup like that? decrease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Yes...see 2002-2003 winter. This would be hard to repeat though...that is about as good as you can get in the N PAC. 02-03 was a pretty special year with the progression and timing. Even when we lost the -ao/nao in Feb, the -epo raged and we also benefited from a well placed Scandinavian block to put the squeeze on and keep a favorable storm track going even with no traditional blocking in the ao/nao domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 This years enso numbers are projected quite a bit higher. Does that increase/decrease the chances of getting a good setup like that? From the very limited set of +enso years, it seems more likely for the epo to favor a +state. I don't read too much into it though. Not enough history to really bank on anything at long leads. Strong enso's are tough to figure out either way. Numerical indices don't really tell the whole story. 97-98 looks good on paper...heh... DJF 57-58 DJF 65-66 DJF 72-73 DJF 82-83 DJF 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Another step towards winter: 000NOUS41 KLWX 191931PNSLWXDCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-037>040-050>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-200400-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC331 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015...GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...ALL OFMARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ANDEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...A FREEZE OCCURRED THIS MORNING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON OFFICE'S AREA OFRESPONSIBILITY. WHILE A FEW LOCALES DID NOT REACH FREEZING...SUCHAS DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON...DOWNTOWN BALTIMORE...AND THE CHESAPEAKEBAY SHORE...THESE AREAS COMPRISE A SMALL MINORITY OF THE REGION.THEREFORE...THE GROWING SEASON FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS NOWCONSIDERED AT AN END FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS ARESULT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL NOT BE ISSUING FROSTOR FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL THE SEASON RESUMES IN SPRING 2016.$RCM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Booo. Freeze warnings are not that important but we always get shafted there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Don't want to over rely on this indicator, but we know OPI is a thing...We could use some improvement in the location and perhaps strength of the NPAC low over the next 2 weeks...note...the composite is without respect to ENSO..I added in October 2014 as well...that location FWIW didn't help us obviously, though Judah Cohen has decided post mortem that EPO and AO are the same thing - I'm using NAO and probably should be using AO...maybe later..similar result Massive -NAO JFM Those Octobers October 2015 so far October 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Looks like the blob is giving in a bit lately via GOA low. Still doesn't look too bad here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.