WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looks good to me. I'll take it. Thanks for posting that map. Yeah, I'd be down with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 CPC's new 3-month outlook is out, and for us in November through January, it leans modestly towards us having above average precip with slightly better chances of above average temps. Precip? It's all about precip. Give us above normal and most times we are going to be happy........eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 That map is showing exactly what I was thinking. I'm going with 34" at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Precip? It's all about precip. Give us above normal and most times we are going to be happy........eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 228.1" in Minneapolis. The oddity is that February's max is actually the 5th highest (Nov, Jan, Mar (all >40"), Dec, then Feb). IAD got more snow during Snowmaggedon 1 than Minneapolis has ever received in the entire month of Feb. Shows how much the prevailing storm track matters. I'm tempted to pull it up for a bunch of cities but I guess it's kind of a useless stat overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Rats. Foiled by science again. Look at the bright side, at least the squirrels will be fat and happy while they bask under the warm winter sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 That map is showing exactly what I was thinking. I'm going with 34" at BWI. That map is reflective of the poor resolution/smoothing. It just basically shows a climo gradient. The actual numbers are relative. It cant resolve micro climates (due to elevation etc). Looks like the Canaan Valley area of WV would be getting half the annual average for there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 That map is reflective of the poor resolution/smoothing. It just basically shows a climo gradient. The actual numbers are relative. It cant resolve micro climates (due to elevation etc). Looks like the Canaan Valley area of WV would be getting half the annual average for there lol. Well, yeah, I know that. I just thought it was funny that I had that number in my head, and then there it is being shown by the best climate model known to man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 My official forecast as of now IMBY is 5-10" or 30-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 My official forecast as of now IMBY is 5-10" or 30-40". equal chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 My official forecast as of now IMBY is 5-10" or 30-40". Good call. We just cant know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 equal chances? close. 51%, 49%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Good call. We just cant know yet. Yes, it is impossible to know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 equal chances? I like it. It covers the suck winters we can get with a strong Nino, and the "if everything else falls into place" possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I still don't see anything particularly troubling that makes me nervous. We probably need Dec (or nov) to produce in order to beat climo again. But even if they don't it's not like our climo is a big number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Isn't that pretty much a classic El Nino map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 My official forecast as of now IMBY is 5-10" or 30-40". If you really want to be hip and with the times, you should have just said 5-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Isn't that pretty much a classic El Nino map? yes If you really want to be hip and with the times, you should have just said 5-40". or do like NHC and go with like 22" even though that's probably among the least likely options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 yes or do like NHC and go with like 22" even though that's probably among the least likely options. Or you could do probability cones for the highest and lowest amounts based on best storm tracks, elevation, climo, wooly worms, etc. It would look like one of those spirograph things I used to do as a kid. Or you could say "it might snow, it might not". We can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 as long as we do better than 01-02, i think we would be all be relatively happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Assuming that the forecast of a very strong El Nino (sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region -- i.e., the rectangle bounded by 5 degrees north and south of the equator and 120/170 degrees West Longitude -- of at least + 2 degrees C) holds for this winter, it would be only the third such event since tracking began in 1950. Here are the DCA summary statistics for the previous two (December-February only), with all-time DC rankings shown in parentheses: 1982-83: Avg temp 40.8 degrees F (17th warmest); Precipitation 6.52 inches (27th driest); Snow 27.6 inches (18th snowiest) 1997-98: Avg temp 42.4 degrees F (6th warmest); Precipitation 12.40 inches (15th wettest); Snow 0.1 inch (Tied for least snowy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Assuming that the forecast of a very strong El Nino (sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region -- i.e., the rectangle bounded by 5 degrees north and south of the equator and 120/170 degrees West Longitude -- of at least + 2 degrees C) holds for this winter, it would be only the third such event since tracking began in 1950. Here are the DCA summary statistics for the previous two (December-February only), with all-time DC rankings shown in parentheses: 1982-83: Avg temp 40.8 degrees F (17th warmest); Precipitation 6.52 inches (27th driest); Snow 27.6 inches (18th snowiest) 1997-98: Avg temp 42.4 degrees F (6th warmest); Precipitation 12.40 inches (15th wettest); Snow 0.1 inch (Tied for least snowy) So looks like Ian is on the money with 5-10 OR 30-40........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 So looks like Ian is on the money with 5-10 OR 30-40........ LOL, that's what I was thinking. One wet, one dry, one snowy, one not, but both warm. As we say around here..............we just can't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 PS: Trix and Winterwxluvr are especially in a sweet spot on that map. I can imagine some marginal coastal storms that bring rain to the cities and nearby burbs, even up to Boston, while the I-81 crowd gets buried.Martinsburg had 22.5" in 1997-98, 4" below the long-term average. It was just cold enough on 4-5 storms that gave rain to the cities, even with a great storm track.Only 3" fell there in 1972-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Ryan Maue shows CFSv2 raw snowfall totals for the winter on Twitter. ~30-35" for DC-Balt. I'm huggin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Assuming that the forecast of a very strong El Nino (sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region -- i.e., the rectangle bounded by 5 degrees north and south of the equator and 120/170 degrees West Longitude -- of at least + 2 degrees C) holds for this winter, it would be only the third such event since tracking began in 1950. Here are the DCA summary statistics for the previous two (December-February only), with all-time DC rankings shown in parentheses: 1982-83: Avg temp 40.8 degrees F (17th warmest); Precipitation 6.52 inches (27th driest); Snow 27.6 inches (18th snowiest) 1997-98: Avg temp 42.4 degrees F (6th warmest); Precipitation 12.40 inches (15th wettest); Snow 0.1 inch (Tied for least snowy) Interestingly the NAO in 82-83 was moderately positive for the winter. 97-98 was strongly negative. I would expect the exact opposite snow results than what we see here. Did the SE score in 97-98? maybe suppression was an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Interestingly the NAO in 82-83 was moderately positive for the winter. 97-98 was strongly negative. I would expect the exact opposite snow results than what we see here. Did the SE score in 97-98? maybe suppression was an issue? The SE scored in 72-73, which was another snowless strong Nino.... Columbia, SC got 16" which I believe is their biggest storm on record. DCA saw a pitiful 0.1" for the season. But I don't think it happened in 97-98. My understanding is that we were blasted with so much Pacific air in 1998 due to a ruthless GOA vortex, that there was no mechanism to deliver the cold.... not even with good teleconnections. Your area probably managed to just be cold enough during many of the storms, but the cities were royally screwed. This is a good thread to read http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43294-why-was-1997-98-such-an-awful-winter-in-the-mid-atlantic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 The SE scored in 72-73, which was another snowless strong Nino.... Columbia, SC got 16" which I believe is their biggest storm on record. DCA saw a pitiful 0.1" for the season. But I don't think it happened in 97-98. My understanding is that we were blasted with so much Pacific air in 1998 due to a ruthless GOA vortex, that there was no mechanism to deliver the cold.... not even with good teleconnections. Your area probably managed to just be cold enough during many of the storms, but the cities were royally screwed. This is a good thread to read http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43294-why-was-1997-98-such-an-awful-winter-in-the-mid-atlantic/ thanks Fozz. good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 With such a small sample size of similar strength ninos, 2 really, I suspect some attribute the warmth and relative lack of snow events in those two years to a strong nino when it could easily have been more attributed to other contributing factors. I suspect the location of the forcing and other signals such as the Pna have more to do with our chances of snowfall then simply the strength of the nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 With such a small sample size of similar strength ninos, 2 really, I suspect some attribute the warmth and relative lack of snow events in those two years to a strong nino when it could easily have been more attributed to other contributing factors. I suspect the location of the forcing and other signals such as the Pna have more to do with our chances of snowfall then simply the strength of the nino. We shall see. I find it hard to blame anything other than the Nino for the debacle that was 97-98. As far as 72-73, it seems like we had a lot of bad luck. 82-83 was weird in that it wasn't very stormy, but was somewhat mild for the most part. I don't know enough about the general setup of that winter to judge why it was that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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