mitchnick Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There's a lot of statistics in meteorology, for the record I know, but I think you know what I'm saying. It's like letting everything ride on black and then when you hit half the time at the end of the night you claim it was your skillful independent choice of every roll of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Well it matters. I definitely ascribe to the idea that history makes you a better forecaster. You see it all the time that people who are new to an area lag for a while until they get the hang to to speak. One of the arguments for still having so many NWS offices is probably that the local knowledge is quite helpful. But the sample is tiny here as far as statistical samples go so I'm not even sure it's really statistics. Even the full modern (all years) sample is quite small, or at least enough so that outliers should be expected. I think it's hard to go crazy just yet given what we know about similar ENSO years. But I'm not sure it can be written off given the persistence of important features of late. Even this weekend's cold shot is quite anomalous. No blocking etc it's just outta here in a minute but once you have a full season of cold built up it might not be so quick to dislodge etc. It only takes one plus a few smaller things to make a winter here. Writing it off isn't terribly logical. As much as calling for a warm, snowless winter based on Enso conditions makes some sense, years like 82/83, 57/58, & 65/66 should give most knowledgeable people pause. But don't get me wrong, I'm not saying persistence or other local factors as you suggested shouldn't be considered. I'm saying I'm quite unimpressed with sticking with persistence as one's primary basis every year. JB being, of course, the cold version of persistence seasonal forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 As much as calling for a warm, snowless winter based on Enso conditions makes some sense, years like 82/83, 57/58, & 65/66 should give most knowledgeable people pause. But don't get me wrong, I'm not saying persistence or other local factors as you suggested shouldn't be considered. I'm saying I'm quite unimpressed with sticking with persistence as one's primary basis every year. JB being, of course, the cold version of persistence seasonal forecasting. you might see this happen again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I understand all of the sst anomaly fetishes, but what really matters is the placement of the forcing...speaking of persistence. The WWB have been futile as far as imparting much change in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I was bored so I figured targets to shoot for. We need some OCT snow stat. = 121.8" of snow in DC's 'perfect winter': 10/1925, 2.2; 11/1987, 11.5; 12/2009, 16.6; 1/1922, 31.5; 2/1899, 35.2; 3/1914, 19.3; 4/1924, 5.5 150.2" of snow in Baltimore's 'perfect winter': 10/1925, 2.5; 11/1898, 9.7; 12/1966, 20.4; 1/1996, 32.6; 2/2010, 50.0; 3/1892, 25.6; 4/1924, 9.4 137.0" of snow in IAD's 'perfect winter': 10/2011, 0.6; 11/1967, 11.4; 12/1966, 24.2; 1/1996, 30.9; 2/2010, 46.1; 3/2014, 19.8; 4/1990, 4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I was bored so I figured targets to shoot for. We need some OCT snow stat. = 121.8" of snow in DC's 'perfect winter': 10/1925, 2.2; 11/1987, 11.5; 12/2009, 16.6; 1/1922, 31.5; 2/1899, 35.2; 3/1914, 19.3; 4/1924, 5.5 150.2" of snow in Baltimore's 'perfect winter': 10/1925, 2.5; 11/1898, 9.7; 12/1966, 20.4; 1/1996, 32.6; 2/2010, 50.0; 3/1892, 25.6; 4/1924, 9.4 137.0" of snow in IAD's 'perfect winter': 10/2011, 0.6; 11/1967, 11.4; 12/1966, 24.2; 1/1996, 30.9; 2/2010, 46.1; 3/2014, 19.8; 4/1990, 4.0 If I could break it down week by week then that will create something really epic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 If I could break it down week by week then that will create something really epic... Eyeballing DCA January by day gets us close to 200" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Eyeballing DCA January by day gets us close to 200" Yeah, doing it by week or by day will basically make it like Jay Peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The massive old white oak at my new house is shedding an unreal number of acorns. Little missles. I have decided there must be some old wive's tail that tons of acorns means a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Yeah, doing it by week or by day will basically make it like Jay Peak Let's not get crazy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Cohen is back at it. I love how his forecast for last year has been spun to being a 'career effort' https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/14/expert-ramp-up-in-siberian-snow-cover-hints-at-cold-winter-for-eastern-u-s/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Cohen is back at it. I love how his forecast for last year has been spun to being a 'career effort' https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/14/expert-ramp-up-in-siberian-snow-cover-hints-at-cold-winter-for-eastern-u-s/ on the related articles, his forecast for 13/14 was as wishy-washy as you can get I think he's just mastered the "art of predicting" more than the art of meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Cohen is back at it. I love how his forecast for last year has been spun to being a 'career effort' https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/14/expert-ramp-up-in-siberian-snow-cover-hints-at-cold-winter-for-eastern-u-s/ Delayed but not denied. Right for the wrong reasons. New postulations. Make it up as you go along. Whatever works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The massive old white oak at my new house is shedding an unreal number of acorns. Little missles. I have decided there must be some old wive's tail that tons of acorns means a snowy winter. Oaks have "mast years" where they produce exorbitant amounts of acorns, followed by years where they produce relatively few. Not much to do with the coming winter. http://www.hastingsreserve.org/oakstory/AmerSciMastKoenig_05.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 on the related articles, his forecast for 13/14 was as wishy-washy as you can get I think he's just mastered the "art of predicting" more than the art of meteorology The anomalies weren't bad last year but I don't see how you can say you did well if your premise was wrong. Of course if you want funding I guess you gotta do what you gotta do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Oaks have "mast years" where they produce exorbitant amounts of acorns, followed by years where they produce relatively few. Not much to do with the coming winter. http://www.hastingsreserve.org/oakstory/AmerSciMastKoenig_05.pdf Rats. Foiled by science again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I understand all of the sst anomaly fetishes, but what really matters is the placement of the forcing...speaking of persistence. The WWB have been futile as far as imparting much change in that regard. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi&p=weekly Another -42 SOI spike. 90 day average is -19, which is the lowest it's been since 1998! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Pretty decent winter snowfall for the warmest seasonal model. But it is the CFS2 soooo... https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Pretty decent winter snowfall for the warmest seasonal model. But it is the CFS2 soooo... https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096 Was wondering when that model would be mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Was wondering when that model would be mentionedAt least you didn't have to wonder who would be the one to mention it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Was wondering when that model would be mentioned Nice of him to cut out the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Here you go folks, courtesy of the Southeast region. (for those wondering where this came from, it is Ryan Maue's graphic depicting the last 48 runs of the CFSV2 model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 NOAA releases their winter forecast today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 NOAA releases their winter forecast today I bet there are equal chances it gets released today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I was bored so I figured targets to shoot for. We need some OCT snow stat. = 121.8" of snow in DC's 'perfect winter': 10/1925, 2.2; 11/1987, 11.5; 12/2009, 16.6; 1/1922, 31.5; 2/1899, 35.2; 3/1914, 19.3; 4/1924, 5.5 150.2" of snow in Baltimore's 'perfect winter': 10/1925, 2.5; 11/1898, 9.7; 12/1966, 20.4; 1/1996, 32.6; 2/2010, 50.0; 3/1892, 25.6; 4/1924, 9.4 137.0" of snow in IAD's 'perfect winter': 10/2011, 0.6; 11/1967, 11.4; 12/1966, 24.2; 1/1996, 30.9; 2/2010, 46.1; 3/2014, 19.8; 4/1990, 4.0 228.1" in Minneapolis. The oddity is that February's max is actually the 5th highest (Nov, Jan, Mar (all >40"), Dec, then Feb). IAD got more snow during Snowmaggedon 1 than Minneapolis has ever received in the entire month of Feb. Shows how much the prevailing storm track matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I could definitely go for another February 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Here you go folks, courtesy of the Southeast region. (for those wondering where this came from, it is Ryan Maue's graphic depicting the last 48 runs of the CFSV2 model) Looks good to me. I'll take it. Thanks for posting that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looks good to me. I'll take it. Thanks for posting that map. PS: Trix and Winterwxluvr are especially in a sweet spot on that map. I can imagine some marginal coastal storms that bring rain to the cities and nearby burbs, even up to Boston, while the I-81 crowd gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 CPC's new 3-month outlook is out, and for us in November through January, it leans modestly towards us having above average precip with slightly better chances of above average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I bet there are equal chances it gets released today One of the best posts ever. Good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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