psuhoffman Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 I don't know if you were just wondering about modoki years or all Niños, but since this year is not a modoki, are still suggesting a correlation for this one and modokis? it was mostly for scientific curiosity because it stuck out and this is definitely not a traditional modoki but I am having musings that this may not behave as a traditional east based strong nino either. It's already not centered along the coast like 97-98 was and some sst models have the strongest sst anamelies pulling back even more west towards winter. It's also stronger then any modoki was but the location of the sst anomaly if the climate models I saw are correct will closely match some years that fell in that modoki set. I'm not sure what the outcome of a hybrid type nino like that would be but was kicking those thoughts around while doing research and came across how 91-92 stuck out and wanted to confirm it was piñatubu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Famine would be a major concern with any kind of super volcano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 People must really be bored with all this super volcano stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 People must really be bored with all this super volcano stuff There are two weather dead zones throughout the year. Mid October - Late November and Late March - Mid April. Probably should be called the foliage seasons, as that is their only redeeming quality. Aside from the rare Halloween Blizzard or Sandy type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 People must really be bored with all this super volcano stuff Actually, I'm only a little bored after waiting 73,000 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46838-and-we-begin/?p=3717587 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Dec - Mar, 500MB anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Dec - Mar, 500MB anomaly nh1516.PNG Matt, is that your interpretation of a model(s) or prediction based on model(s) and "other factors."? Or is it just you having fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Matt, is that your interpretation of a model(s) or prediction based on model(s) and "other factors."? Or is it just you having fun? It's just a preliminary WAG...not based on any models..I don't pay any attention to long range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 It's just a preliminary WAG...not based on any models..I don't pay any attention to long range models Has a suppressed look to me. UKMET J-M forecast is a bit suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 N is normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 N is normal? Normal is bare min down here for snowfall compatibility. Not much room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Normal is bare min down here for snowfall compatibility. Not much room for error.500mb anomaly map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Has a suppressed look to me. UKMET J-M forecast is a bit suppressed. That is a pretty solid Aleutian Low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 500mb anomaly map? talking points gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 That is a pretty solid Aleutian Low position.Yeah, but the Ukie says the Canadian ridge can nonetheless screw things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Yeah, but the Ukie says the Canadian ridge can nonetheless screw things up. You aren't going to have to worry about suppression in a potent Nino. I wouldn't worry about precip anomaly forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 N is normal? neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 To my untrained eye, it looks like this year may be a Mid-Atlantic special, from NJ to VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 To my untrained eye, it looks like this year may be a Mid-Atlantic special, from NJ to VA. Way too early to tell. Remember models are for guidance only. While I believe its a good bet somebody is going to get hammered this winter, with just slight variations with any anomaly setup anyone from the Carolina's to New England is at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I'm feeling very pessimistic based on the latest Nino updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I'm feeling very pessimistic based on the latest Nino updates.Considering there's never a whole lot of positive meteo data we can point to in any mid-October for the upcoming winter, I wouldn't let it get you down too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Nervous Nellies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Considering there's never a whole lot of positive meteo data we can point to in any mid-October for the upcoming winter, I wouldn't let it get you down too far. It's the strongest Nino ever at this point of the season except for 1997, and it's still strengthening, especially the eastern areas. Those are the facts, you can draw the conclusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The sample size is small and there are plenty of differences between how the playing field is lined up. Leaning pessimistic is usually a good strategy here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 When you think winter outllok, other than NWS, and CWG, which ones do you read? Wxrisk and wxsouth ..what elese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The sample size is small and there are plenty of differences between how the playing field is lined up. Leaning pessimistic is usually a good strategy here though.That's something I recall debating with Tenman a number of years ago. Going AN temps and BN snow may be a safe bet but it's not meteorological imho, it's statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 It's the strongest Nino ever at this point of the season except for 1997, and it's still strengthening, especially the eastern areas. Those are the facts, you can draw the conclusions Well, I'm not willing to draw any conclusions since it's only mid October. I'll remain optimistic until I hear the fat lady singing, and we have plenty of time for that thankfully. For sanity sake, though, I do hope I don't have to wait until Valentines day like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 That's something I recall debating with Tenman a number of years ago. Going AN temps and BN snow may be a safe bet but it's not meteorological imho, it's statistics.There's a lot of statistics in meteorology, for the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 That's something I recall debating with Tenman a number of years ago. Going AN temps and BN snow may be a safe bet but it's not meteorological imho, it's statistics. Well it matters. I definitely ascribe to the idea that history makes you a better forecaster. You see it all the time that people who are new to an area lag for a while until they get the hang to to speak. One of the arguments for still having so many NWS offices is probably that the local knowledge is quite helpful. But the sample is tiny here as far as statistical samples go so I'm not even sure it's really statistics. Even the full modern (all years) sample is quite small, or at least enough so that outliers should be expected. I think it's hard to go crazy just yet given what we know about similar ENSO years. But I'm not sure it can be written off given the persistence of important features of late. Even this weekend's cold shot is quite anomalous. No blocking etc it's just outta here in a minute but once you have a full season of cold built up it might not be so quick to dislodge etc. It only takes one plus a few smaller things to make a winter here. Writing it off isn't terribly logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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