mappy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Go for the home run...Toba. It's tropical so it would have an even faster impact in circulating the sulfates around the globe. Is Toba a bigger caldera than Yellowstone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Go for the home run...Toba. It's tropical so it would have an even faster impact in circulating the sulfates around the globe. I'm in. Is there any way to help it along? Like a sacrifice tossed in the cauldron or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Is Toba a bigger caldera than Yellowstone? I'm not sure...but Toba's eruption 74k years ago was larger than any of the Yellowstone eruptions in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I'm not sure...but Toba's eruption 74k years ago was larger than any of the Yellowstone eruptions in the past.Did a little research, it is bigger. But yeah, I know about its last eruption and the impacts it had. Mainly picked Yellowstone for its proximity to us. Toba would definitely have a bigger impact worldwide for sure. Whatever, I'm in, days and days of ash fall, lollies of 50" or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I'm not sure...but Toba's eruption 74k years ago was larger than any of the Yellowstone eruptions in the past. Explains why we have been stuck in this ice age death spiral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Toba nearly did the human race in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Toba nearly did the human race in. Yeah but think of the blizzards it probably brought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Yeah but think of the blizzards it probably brought. Not to mention the Volcanic ash, it's like a snow that never melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitaminmawc Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 No matter what, you can't shine the turd that is Winter 15/16. There is just too much going againist big totals towards the coastal plain, we need supervolcano asap. I stand by my older calls on winter ending post-2025, at least in a way we care about so enjoy this last decade or so locally. This is not the banter thread. Is there a block feature on this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Well after 2010 we were told there would be more -NAO because of global warming so don't go crazy now. Hmmm...maybe I should buy a VW diesel then. I think I can find someone to pay me to take the title so the first 10 tanks are on the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Impressive October blocking event continues to unfold. Looks like a good chance it crosses the -3sd threshold. Dropping below -3sd isn't particularly common in October. Here's the complete list: 2002: -5.098 on 10/18 2014: -3.993 on 10/7 1979: -3.471 on 10/8 2009: -3.415 on 10/22 2003: -3.297 on 10/15 2012: -3.195 on 10/24 2006: -3.192 on 10/17 1984: -3.087 on 10/5 1981: -3.076 on 10/3 1991: -3.044 on 10/29 Probably a coincidence but 5 out of the 10 years are el nino years but they were all "acceptable" nino years in the snow department. Except 91-92 of course but that was a very oddball year weather wise around the globe because of Pinatubo. 06-07 could have been really good if the sleet storm was a snow storm. It was still a great storm though. An absolute glacier for days after. Might not have been a big snow producer but was definitely an interesting storm. I think parts of PG county had nearly an inch of ice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Impressive October blocking event continues to unfold. Looks like a good chance it crosses the -3sd threshold. aod109.JPG ao109.JPG Dropping below -3sd isn't particularly common in October. Here's the complete list: 2002: -5.098 on 10/18 2014: -3.993 on 10/7 1979: -3.471 on 10/8 2009: -3.415 on 10/22 2003: -3.297 on 10/15 2012: -3.195 on 10/24 2006: -3.192 on 10/17 1984: -3.087 on 10/5 1981: -3.076 on 10/3 1991: -3.044 on 10/29 Probably a coincidence but 5 out of the 10 years are el nino years but they were all "acceptable" nino years in the snow department. Except 91-92 of course but that was a very oddball year weather wise around the globe because of Pinatubo. 06-07 could have been really good if the sleet storm was a snow storm. It was still a great storm though. An absolute glacier for days after. Might not have been a big snow producer but was definitely an interesting storm. I think parts of PG county had nearly an inch of ice too. lost most of my power for 2 days, but not because of the ice storm I had my poly-whatever water supply line to the house replaced the summer before and the knuckleheads nicked the power line so I lost a leg of the 220 volt service to my house the evening of the storm (of all times!), so lights were on in my 28 degree house, but no heat, stove, etc. BGE was so busy with the storm related power loses, it took them until the 3rd day to get it fixed very bad memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Impressive October blocking event continues to unfold. Looks like a good chance it crosses the -3sd threshold. aod109.JPG ao109.JPG Dropping below -3sd isn't particularly common in October. Here's the complete list: 2002: -5.098 on 10/18 2014: -3.993 on 10/7 1979: -3.471 on 10/8 2009: -3.415 on 10/22 2003: -3.297 on 10/15 2012: -3.195 on 10/24 2006: -3.192 on 10/17 1984: -3.087 on 10/5 1981: -3.076 on 10/3 1991: -3.044 on 10/29 Probably a coincidence but 5 out of the 10 years are el nino years but they were all "acceptable" nino years in the snow department. Except 91-92 of course but that was a very oddball year weather wise around the globe because of Pinatubo. 06-07 could have been really good if the sleet storm was a snow storm. It was still a great storm though. An absolute glacier for days after. Might not have been a big snow producer but was definitely an interesting storm. I think parts of PG county had nearly an inch of ice too. That is a really long predominantly negative period. If it continues through winter, that would be a really long period. So the likelihood is........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 That is a really long predominantly negative period. If it continues through winter, that would be a really long period. So the likelihood is........... It happens enough to not be considered unusual. There are a # of years with a long term negative bias. Not saying that this year is a long term negative. Looking at the other years with a solid -AO during July-Sept does seem to make a case for a continuation of the longer term trend. I'll hug the 09-10 analog for now. June-March...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 It happens enough to not be considered unusual. There are a # of years with a long term negative bias. Not saying that this year is a long term negative. Looking at the other years with a solid -AO during July-Sept does seem to make a case for a continuation of the longer term trend. I'll hug the 09-10 analog for now. June-March...lol JuneMar0910.JPG OK, I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Ok serious speculation. There have been 7 moderate to strong modoki ninos. 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, 02-03, 09-10. All of them are similar with one clear outlier. So what caused 91-92 to be so different compared to the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Ok serious speculation. There have been 7 moderate to strong modoki ninos. 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, 02-03, 09-10. All of them are similar with one clear outlier. So what caused 91-92 to be so different compared to the others? Pinatubo side effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Pinatubo side effects?That's was on my mind too but perhaps someone has a more specific theory. If you exclude that year it certainly gives us a very similar set of years at least for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The super volcano idea isn't awful, would need to be Yellowstone though. We wouldn't be impacted by the initial eruption, just the ash fall and volcanic winter that followed. If it was one on the other side of the Atlantic however, the resulting tsunami would kill us all. Speak for yourself, some of us having holdings out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Ok serious speculation. There have been 7 moderate to strong modoki ninos. 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, 02-03, 09-10. All of them are similar with one clear outlier. So what caused 91-92 to be so different compared to the others? Pinatubo side effects? Yes... There was a paper about 10 years ago that studied the effects of large tropical volcano eruptions...and it tends to enhance the westerlies of the stratospheric vortex, thus promoting a +AO type pattern the following winter. 1991-1992 followed this in classic fashion. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Shindelletal-jgr04.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Ok serious speculation. There have been 7 moderate to strong modoki ninos. 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, 02-03, 09-10. All of them are similar with one clear outlier. So what caused 91-92 to be so different compared to the others?I don't know if you were just wondering about modoki years or all Niños, but since this year is not a modoki, are still suggesting a correlation for this one and modokis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Toba nearly did the human race in. Yep. Scientists are pretty sure that the Toba eruption dropped the worldwide human population to less than 10K breeding pairs. This was a surprise and was found through genetic testing. This is not the banter thread. Is there a block feature on this site? Yes. I just added you to it. I dont wanna post any of the guys pics. But this guy has a solid winter forecast if you like snowy (who doesnt). Very well writtern as well: http://www.ncpiedmontweather.com/pwf1516/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Hasn't there been recent research to suggest that the Toba eruption wasn't as crushing a blow for humans as previously thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Hasn't there been recent research to suggest that the Toba eruption wasn't as crushing a blow for humans as previously thought? Not that I have seen. The only research I have read is about the human bottleneck around the same time as the Toba eruption. I am gonna look though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Hasn't there been recent research to suggest that the Toba eruption wasn't as crushing a blow for humans as previously thought? Yes there was. Came across information today that lake Toba is on alert due to unusual activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Yes there was. Came across information today that lake Toba is on alert due to unusual activity link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 link?I did a YouTube search for Toba Alert and filtered for anything uploaded in the past week. This video was published on 10/8. No idea about the credibility or sourcing, but it looks like the publisher is associated with a conspiracy or prepper site of some sort. A volcano in the area did have an eruption in June, I think, but I don't know if it's still ongoing. Enjoy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 I did a YouTube search for Toba Alert and filtered for anything uploaded in the past week. This video was published on 10/8. No idea about the credibility or sourcing, but it looks like the publisher is associated with a conspiracy or prepper site of some sort. A volcano in the area did have an eruption in June, I think, but I don't know if it's still ongoing. Enjoy: http://www.inquisitr.com/2160555/indonesias-lake-toba-supervolcano-threatens-global-volcanic-winter-eruption-caused-mass-extinction-75-000-years-ago/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Hasn't there been recent research to suggest that the Toba eruption wasn't as crushing a blow for humans as previously thought?Yes. But it's heavily debated. It was based on a lake sediment bed in Africa that they argued showed little climate change due to the eruption. But others have argued that little climate change from that type of eruption isn't very plausible. But perhaps somehow that region of Africa was a bit immune. You'd probably need some more robust evidence to be sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 http://www.inquisitr.com/2160555/indonesias-lake-toba-supervolcano-threatens-global-volcanic-winter-eruption-caused-mass-extinction-75-000-years-ago/ Very interesting. It seems like a mega eruption would be unlikely to occur just 75k years after the last one. But this is a super Shemitah year, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.