Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 As always, good stuff Bob. I will be floored if we go above normal 3 years in a row though. We haven't even had a chance to do it since the late 80's. It would be fitting to have back to back flukes work out and then a favorable Enso to disappoint. lol. The majority of the mod+ and strong Nino events in the past that have exceeded climo had one thing in common. December (or Nov in 87) produced more than a mangled trace (65-66 and 86-87 being the exceptions). If we blank out in Dec then it's probably not going to come easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 We haven't even had a chance to do it since the late 80's. It would be fitting to have back to back flukes work out and then a favorable Enso to disappoint. lol. The majority of the mod+ and strong Nino events in the past that have exceeded climo had one thing in common. December (or Nov in 87) produced more than a mangled trace (65-66 and 86-87 being the exceptions). If we blank out in Dec then it's probably not going to come easy. but, surprisingly, those winters were pretty darn good as I think about it, 86/87 was a reversed, younger brother to 09/10, with the double whammy coming before the solo event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 My folks live in Collegeville. Love that Pizza place there. I think its called Pizza Stop? As always, good stuff Bob. I will be floored if we go above normal 3 years in a row though. Pretty sure we already have. I'd have to check my numbers, but I think I was at 33-34 inches in 2012-13, and it was the lowest of the past 3. I don't see any way that Winchester is above 33" for a normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Looks like we're in the battle zone between wet and not as brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 When it says not as brutal, does that mean we see enough winter where we don't feel the need to pull out the nooses and chairs by January? Hopefully.. That map is pretty dumb overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Hopefully.. That map is pretty dumb overall. looks similar to the climo NINO CPC maps (a combo of temp & precip) to my untrained eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 looks similar to the climo NINO CPC maps (a combo of temp & precip) to my untrained eyes Yeah I think so but perhaps saying even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Yeah I think so but perhaps saying even less. hey, don't fret...sign up for a subscription today and you can see it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Hopefully.. That map is pretty dumb overall. Yeah, "not as brutal" tells me almost nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 According to that map, the only place that will see snow this year is the 4-corners. Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I love occasional mild days for the Midwest. What is occasional. And since they fail to give any hint to the rest of the time virtually anything verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Hopefully.. That map is pretty dumb overall. You don't think it is useful to say that it is going to snow in the Rockies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 You don't think it is useful to say that it is going to snow in the Rockies? Brutal cutoff between the snowy places and the mild and dry places. Nino! Leave it to Accuweather to make a dumber winter outlook map than the Farmer's Almanac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 New Euro monthlies are warm thru Jan .. then near normal in Feb then warm again. Wet throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 New Euro monthlies are warm thru Jan .. then near normal in Feb then warm again. Wet throughout. Not as brutal to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Not as brutal to our north? hmm I think I may steal that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 New Euro monthlies are warm thru Jan .. then near normal in Feb then warm again. Wet throughout. How is the aleutian low placement each month? Far enough west to pump up heights along the west coast of NA? AN is fine temp wise if strong pac flow into NW canada isn't the main reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 New Euro monthlies are warm thru Jan .. then near normal in Feb then warm again. Wet throughout. how warm, if you can tell? I think last month's were a little above normal as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 How is the aleutian low placement each month? Far enough west to pump up heights along the west coast of NA? AN is fine temp wise if strong pac flow into NW canada isn't the main reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 thanks.....not so bad imho considering the strength of the NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 thanks.....not so bad imho considering the strength of the NINO I was expecting a train wreck from all the comments... that looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 how warm, if you can tell? I think last month's were a little above normal as well It was tho I think this one is a bit warmer for Jan than prior but I can't completely recall now. +1-2 Nov +2-3 Dec +1 Jan Near normal Feb Near normal to +1 Mar +2 Apr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I was expecting a train wreck from all the comments... that looks good to me. that FEB map has east coast blizzard written all over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 New Euro monthlies are warm thru Jan .. then near normal in Feb then warm again. Wet throughout. That last line is what counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 GOA low looks ok, but the AO and NAO seem to hurt us. Very nice retorgession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 thanks.....not so bad imho considering the strength of the NINO I have most of my eggs in the Feb basket so not too concerning there at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 It was tho I think this one is a bit warmer for Jan than prior but I can't completely recall now. +1-2 Nov +2-3 Dec +1 Jan Near normal Feb Near normal to +1 Mar +2 Apr ahh....thanks again we only need it to be cold when there's a storm anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 hmm I think I may steal that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 For a broad brush seasonal that looks totally fine. Even Dec. Might be warm on the means but a pac zonal furnace it is not. I have a recurring hunch that Dec is going to end up the opposite (or at least quite different) than what everyone is expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 For a broad brush seasonal that looks totally fine. Even Dec. Might be warm on the means but a pac zonal furnace it is not. I have a recurring hunch that Dec is going to end up the opposite (or at least quite different) than what everyone is expecting. So you're calling for Snowpocalypse II? I'm still holding out hope for Vets Day II myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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