Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

I predict that January 2016 will be colder than this upcoming July 2015.

And that Ji will cancel winter at least 3 times between Thanksgiving and Christmas. After which, we'll get a HECS from North Carolina to Maine.

Playing it safe and all, you know!

No way he makes it to November

[winterymix]

I'd go with below average snow if I could be assured no one would bump it next March to mock me.

DC used to have three or more consecutive winters of above average snow.  Now it is relatively rare.

consecutive above average runs (run = at least 3 consecutive years:

 

1890-1895

1903-1911

1913-1918

1921-1926

1932-1937

1945-1949

1959-1968

1977-1980

[wdcrob]

DC used to have three or more consecutive winters of above average snow.  Now it is relatively rare.

consecutive above average runs (run = at least 3 consecutive years:

 

1890-1895

1903-1911

1913-1918

1921-1926

1932-1937

1945-1949

1959-1968

1977-1980

 

I suspect if you look at all the times there were two consecutive years of above average snow (call it N) you'd find that 8/N is roughly equal to the chances of having above average snow in any given year.

[RIC_WX]

A more urgent question is can we pull off a 3rd consecutive "nice" summer in a row.  I will define this as <30 days with high temps >90F and lots and lots of days with DP <65F.  And ample supply of thunderstorms on the inevitable HHH days, even in Leesburg, which has not happened in my first 5 summers here (has it happened ever?)

[CAPE]

The past 2 winters have had a nearly ideal pattern, and with persistence, on the Pacific side. Despite the fact the we did not get the expected predominant -AO/NAO as predicted(Cohen/SAI, etc), we had great results wrt to average for cold and snow in the MA. Just playing the odds, maybe we are due to have a shift in the Pacific pattern(folks in the west sure hope so), and even if we do get a persistent -AO and some blocking on the Atlantic side, next winter could still suck. Beginning to think the impact of the Pacific pattern trumps the Atlantic for our area...seems we can overcome the Atlantic pattern being completely wrong and still have a good winter if the Pacific is ideal, but not sure it would turn out as well the other way around.

[hosj III]

We should see two distinct camps set up this summer/fall. One group saying we are due for a torch, the other saying that the streak must continue.

[WinterWxLuvr]

We should see two distinct camps set up this summer/fall. One group saying we are due for a torch, the other saying that the streak must continue.

That's not much different than any other year.

[mitchnick]

Classic mod/strong NINO advertised on the CFS2....I suspect if the SSTA forecast holds, you'll see the east coast future temp forecasts get colder. But since this is only OCT-DEC period, that's a pretty fair expectation as the cold should come later in the season.

 

[AlaskaETC]

I'm pessimistic simply due to the fact that three +climo winters in a row are tough. Back to back always seems feasible, but three? We'll see...

[WinterWxLuvr]

Classic mod/strong NINO advertised on the CFS2....I suspect if the SSTA forecast holds, you'll see the east coast future temp forecasts get colder. But since this is only OCT-DEC period, that's a pretty fair expectation as the cold should come later in the season.

 

I thought it was only the southeast that saw below normal temps during most ninos.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Lol..next winter is like 8 months away. Let's enjoy the warm season.

[Ian]

#supernino

[AvantHiatus]

#Torchville

[mitchnick]

I thought it was only the southeast that saw below normal temps during most ninos.

nah, think of 02/03 and 09/10

SE it's almost a lock because of the rain/clouds

no guarantees with a colder than normal here with NINO, of course...i.e. 91/92, 94/95

[Bob Chill]

The more important part of regular mod ninos is storm track and not temps. A typical nino won't be cold like we saw the last couple winters but we generally don't have to worry about a se ridge disaster. Having an active southern stream and storm track south of us doesn't require a big nasty arctic airmass to produce snow during prime climo.

I personally could care less about enso right now. Warm enso forecasting has been nothing short of terrible at long leads. My only thoughts about next year are warmer and less snowy than the last 2. The WD index is raging.

[Fozz]

What's the WD index?

[nw baltimore wx]

We're Due Index. We are. I'm expecting a blowtorch.

I think it should be called the WAD index.

[mitchnick]

The more important part of regular mod ninos is storm track and not temps. A typical nino won't be cold like we saw the last couple winters but we generally don't have to worry about a se ridge disaster. Having an active southern stream and storm track south of us doesn't require a big nasty arctic airmass to produce snow during prime climo.

I personally could care less about enso right now. Warm enso forecasting has been nothing short of terrible at long leads. My only thoughts about next year are warmer and less snowy than the last 2. The WD index is raging.

Agree wrt the track, which is why I like the looks of the precip forecast on the CFS2.

Note, however, I am not saying CFS2 is certain to right.

[Ji]

It'd going to be snowy. duh

[Fozz]

It'd going to be snowy. duh

If we can get 3 bad winters in a row then we can also have the opposite

[Absolute Humidity]

Crap shoot guess for next year, more of the same with more atlantic blocking and slightly less pacific blocking and a tad warmer over all.

[Absolute Humidity]

My 2014-2015 projection map made last May was off by 100-200 miles with the record Boston snows. If only there was just a little blocking on the atlantic side ohh what could have been.

[GaWx]

I'm pessimistic simply due to the fact that three +climo winters in a row are tough. Back to back always seems feasible, but three? We'll see...

 

The last times there were three cold DJF's in a row as a whole for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US were 1976-7 through 1978-9 and 1967-8 through 1969-70. Not surprisingly (since they have been the coldest ENSO on average), both of these trios included two weak El Nino winters. If we can get another weak Nino next winter, look out for a good shot at the third in a row, especially if a -NAO dominates and when considering that another +PDO is very likely.

[Absolute Humidity]

The last times there were three cold DJF's in a row as a whole for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US were 1976-7 through 1978-9 and 1967-8 through 1969-70. Not surprisingly (since have been the coldest ENSO on average), both of these trios included two weak El Nino winters. If we can get another weak Nino next winter, look out for a good shot at the third in a row, especially if a -NAO dominates and when considering that another +PDO is very likely.

My thinking exactly.

[GaWx]

I thought it was only the southeast that saw below normal temps during most ninos.

The SE is favored for chilly winters by Nino climo overall. However, the weaker Nino's (say weak to low end moderate) have been the coldest overall for all ENSO when averaged out for much of the E 1/3 of the US.

We're looking to have a second year El Nino this fall/winter. If it turns out to peak this fall and/or winter as a weak to low end moderate Nino, there will be a very good chance to get a third cold winter in a row, especially if we get a -NAO. With a -NAO, a weak to low end moderate Nino could easily mean quite a cold winter, as JB is now hinting. However, if it peaks high end moderate to strong, the odds would strongly favor it not being a solid cold winter and more likely near normal.

Note these maps for 2nd year Nino winters:

1) DJF temp.'s for 2nd year Nino's that peak high end moderate to strong: near normal on average DC though cool in SE

2) Now look how much colder the DJF's for 2nd year Nino's were on average when the 2nd year peak was weak to low end moderate Nino: only one warm one in here (1953-4), which had a strong -PDO. Note that I couldn't include the very cold 2nd year Nino winter of 1885-6, a weak Nino, because this dataset only goes back to 1895.

[WxUSAF]

My 2014-2015 projection map made last May was off by 100-200 miles with the record Boston snows. If only there was just a little blocking on the atlantic side ohh what could have been.

Looks like you only missed by a factor of 2.5-3 in our sub region.  

[Bob Chill]

Interesting stat. The NAO has averaged +.978 for DJF during the last 4 met winters. Only 1 month had a negative reading (-.45 in Feb 2013).

It's not unprecedented though. The 5 year stretch 90-91 through 94-95 averaged +.883 with only 1 month having a negative reading (-.13 in Jan of 92).

It seems like "we're due" for a -nao winter but history says maybe we aren't just yet.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

If each winter is like an independent trial the "we're due for a dud winter" argument doesn't really apply- but I'm not sure what the thinking is on that among meteorologists. Same thing with getting a -NAO/AO (but after the last two winters I'm not sure if that's as important as we thought). I do wonder if we're in a persistent anomalous cold/snowy period like the 1960's, mid-1930's, early 1900's, etc. El Nino looks like a lock, maybe even a moderate/strong one, but that's not a lock for a snowy winter either (91/92, 97/98).

 

Having said that, its too early and I'm enjoying April (my favorite month!)

[GaWx]

If each winter is like an independent trial the "we're due for a dud winter" argument doesn't really apply- but I'm not sure what the thinking is on that among meteorologists. Same thing with getting a -NAO/AO (but after the last two winters I'm not sure if that's as important as we thought). I do wonder if we're in a persistent anomalous cold/snowy period like the 1960's, mid-1930's, early 1900's, etc. El Nino looks like a lock, maybe even a moderate/strong one, but that's not a lock for a snowy winter either (91/92, 97/98).

Having said that, its too early and I'm enjoying April (my favorite month!)

If one assumes that any one winter has about a 1 in 4 chance of being pretty solidly cold in much of the E 1/3 of the US, then the chance of three in a row assuming largely independence from one year to the next is 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/64 or 2/128. Looking at the last 128 years, there actually have been two triples: 1967-8 through 1969-70 as well as 1976-7 through 1978-9. So, having only had two is certainly not inconsistent with the idea of a lot of independence though it is far from 100% independence due to longer term cycles like the PDO.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The we're due argument has no merit.