Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

Recommended Posts

As far as the pac goes, our winter hinges on where the low height anomalies persist on the means through the winter (stating obvious). So far the CFS is the only one to show things places a bit too far east but even the other seasonals show things close enough that even a minor shift would be bad news.

 

 I'm not worried or invested in anything either way. I know exactly what we need and there is not way to really know until we are well into the season. Even if December sucks it still doesn't mean Jan and Feb will. Same goes if December is tasty. Things can easily go the other way. I would be more unlikely for the npac to suck or be great for the entire winter anyways. 

 

The one thing that has my interest is the possibility of the Atl cooperating. Summer or not, this is an impressive run. One that could very well have implications going forward. The limited history we have with summers dominated with a -AO look pretty nice and this one has been one of the stronger cases if there is some sort of connection. 

 

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

97-98 had good blocking but unfortunately all it could do was force pac air down from Canada instead of continental air. In the end the winter sucked of course but it wasn't dry and had plenty of coastals. Matt has said for years that he's hoping for a big nino and just let the cards play out. We got his wish coming. I'm pretty optimistic overall that we end up with at least 1 memorable storm. 

If the N Atl. theory of warm north and south with cold sandwiched between them off of New Foun helps with a -NAO has any merit, most of the models say we've got a decent shot at blocking in the N Atl. That JAMSTEC SSTA map you posted highlights it perfectly, or close to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

How did KA do last year?

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44514-ka-winter-outlook/

 

Temperatures:Above Average

Snowfall:Average

Rainfall:Above Average

 

Seasonal Temps:+1.3 to +1.7

Monthly: Dec:0 to +1

               Jan:0

              Feb:+4

Snowfall DCA:15"

 

Analog years:1974(5),1984(5), 1992(3)1997(8),2001(2)

 

Believes there will be a major ice storm around 1/15/15

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not so hot last year

his opinion still has much value but it's not something that I, as a weenie, consternate over

the risk with any strong NINO is that a blow out bad is as much on the table as a blow out great is (probably more so with the bad), so he could be way high on his snow forecast as much as we would all like to see higher snowfall numbers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not so hot last year

his opinion still has much value but it's not something that I, as a weenie, consternate over

the risk with any strong NINO is that a blow out bad is as much on the table as a blow out great is (probably more so with the bad), so he could be way high on his snow forecast as much as we would all like to see higher snowfall numbers

I'm honestly not at all concerned about his forecast either way. It's not all about Nino, but you can't ignore it. I personally think that making a call this far out is a lesson in futility. If someone hits it at this point, they'll just claim "first." If they don't hit it, then they'll pat themselves on the back for having the balls to make the call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. 

 

Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. 

 

post-2035-0-20767800-1444063960_thumb.jp

 

The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. 

 

The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960.

 

post-2035-0-40601900-1444064401_thumb.jp

 

 

Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol

 

 

The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department:

 

post-2035-0-97487000-1444064839_thumb.jp

 

 

We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger.

Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event.

cpcao.JPG

The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June.

The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960.

Summer Blocking.JPG

Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol

The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department:

summerblockingwinter.JPG

We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways.

What about the epo? Do we look to have a fall back if the big two won't cooperate again?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. 

 

Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. 

 

attachicon.gifcpcao.JPG

 

The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. 

 

The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960.

 

attachicon.gifSummer Blocking.JPG

 

 

Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol

 

 

The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department:

 

attachicon.gifsummerblockingwinter.JPG

 

 

We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. 

post-821-0-35190300-1444067040_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What about the epo? Do we look to have a fall back if the big two won't cooperate again?

 

General nino climo doesn't favor a persistent -epo because the oscillations with low pressure in the GOA region generally don't allow a persistent ridge like we saw the last couple years. However, there should be periods where the epo is negative. Nino's are generally mixed evenly in that department.

 

IMO- the "fall back" in general will be a +PNA. Unless we get totally screwed with strong low pressure on the means tucked too far east in the Npac and just overwhelming everything else we should be ok.  Nothing could save 97-98 because of this. The numerical indices look pretty good that winter but the sensible weather sucked because of the beast in the npac. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. 

 

Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. 

 

attachicon.gifcpcao.JPG

 

The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. 

 

The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960.

 

attachicon.gifSummer Blocking.JPG

 

 

Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol

 

 

The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department:

 

attachicon.gifsummerblockingwinter.JPG

 

 

We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. 

I think 1950 and 1972 are the only red-headed step winters for sne on that list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

General nino climo doesn't favor a persistent -epo because the oscillations with low pressure in the GOA region generally don't allow a persistent ridge like we saw the last couple years. However, there should be periods where the epo is negative. Nino's are generally mixed evenly in that department.

IMO- the "fall back" in general will be a +PNA. Unless we get totally screwed with strong low pressure on the means tucked too far east in the Npac and just overwhelming everything else we should be ok. Nothing could save 97-98 because of this. The numerical indices look pretty good that winter but the sensible weather sucked because of the beast in the npac.

Thanks Bob

Link to comment
Share on other sites

they had a bunch of traces that year...If I was living in DC I would be expecting a major blizzard this winter...But I don't so my expectations don't count...

 

I'm not sure about a major blizzard because too much has to go right even in the "right year". OTOH- the odds of having some slower moving and moisture laden storms that cover a large geographic area are probably as good as they have been since 09-10 for obvious reasons. 

 

DC and east will usually mix or flirt with the dryslot with miller A's in general. Of course worse than mixing...all rain...is certainly a concern. IMHO- I think areas 30+ miles to the N-W of the cities (mainly north of Nokesville) should be pretty optimistic at this point. Still an awful long ways to go. Hopefully disaster looks less likely than decent come December. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure about a major blizzard because too much has to go right even in the "right year". OTOH- the odds of having some slower moving and moisture laden storms that cover a large geographic area are probably as good as they have been since 09-10 for obvious reasons. 

 

DC and east will usually mix or flirt with the dryslot with miller A's in general. Of course worse than mixing...all rain...is certainly a concern. IMHO- I think areas 30+ miles to the N-W of the cities (mainly north of Nokesville) should be pretty optimistic at this point. Still an awful long ways to go. Hopefully disaster looks less likely than decent come December. 

 

Nice read above Bob!  For as sucky as this pattern was in 73 somehow we squeaked out a 12" winter over a couple of events.  But yeah, the western parts of NC/VA do quite well in enso++.

 

:yikes:

post-2311-0-85845500-1444141919_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warm temps in the Atlantic should help produce blocking correct? a -NAO plus -AO combined with an El Nino definitely has a lot of potential to produce major storms. until March last year, Philly was in the screw zone in every storm. Hoping for a few huge storms...

 

 

overall:

 

above average December

below average Jan-March

 

snowfall: 35" in Philly, 25" in DCA  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warm temps in the Atlantic should help produce blocking correct? a -NAO plus -AO combined with an El Nino definitely has a lot of potential to produce major storms. until March last year, Philly was in the screw zone in every storm. Hoping for a few huge storms...

 

 

overall:

 

above average December

below average Jan-March

 

snowfall: 35" in Philly, 25" in DCA  

 

My folks live in Collegeville. Love that Pizza place there. I think its called Pizza Stop?

 

 

I'm not sure about a major blizzard because too much has to go right even in the "right year". OTOH- the odds of having some slower moving and moisture laden storms that cover a large geographic area are probably as good as they have been since 09-10 for obvious reasons. 

 

DC and east will usually mix or flirt with the dryslot with miller A's in general. Of course worse than mixing...all rain...is certainly a concern. IMHO- I think areas 30+ miles to the N-W of the cities (mainly north of Nokesville) should be pretty optimistic at this point. Still an awful long ways to go. Hopefully disaster looks less likely than decent come December. 

 

As always, good stuff Bob. I will be floored if we go above normal 3 years in a row though.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My folks live in Collegeville. Love that Pizza place there. I think its called Pizza Stop?

 

 

 

As always, good stuff Bob. I will be floored if we go above normal 3 years in a row though.

Yessir!  but have they had rococo's? I prefer them, but Pizza Stop always a solid choice too. And I'm excited for the winter. Too far SW for the blizzard, too far N for the storm the week before the blizzard, too warm for a few of the overrunning events (Super Bowl storm). Wasn't until the March 5th storm we had a hit over 5 inches 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...