mitchnick Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 As far as the pac goes, our winter hinges on where the low height anomalies persist on the means through the winter (stating obvious). So far the CFS is the only one to show things places a bit too far east but even the other seasonals show things close enough that even a minor shift would be bad news. I'm not worried or invested in anything either way. I know exactly what we need and there is not way to really know until we are well into the season. Even if December sucks it still doesn't mean Jan and Feb will. Same goes if December is tasty. Things can easily go the other way. I would be more unlikely for the npac to suck or be great for the entire winter anyways. The one thing that has my interest is the possibility of the Atl cooperating. Summer or not, this is an impressive run. One that could very well have implications going forward. The limited history we have with summers dominated with a -AO look pretty nice and this one has been one of the stronger cases if there is some sort of connection. 97-98 had good blocking but unfortunately all it could do was force pac air down from Canada instead of continental air. In the end the winter sucked of course but it wasn't dry and had plenty of coastals. Matt has said for years that he's hoping for a big nino and just let the cards play out. We got his wish coming. I'm pretty optimistic overall that we end up with at least 1 memorable storm. If the N Atl. theory of warm north and south with cold sandwiched between them off of New Foun helps with a -NAO has any merit, most of the models say we've got a decent shot at blocking in the N Atl. That JAMSTEC SSTA map you posted highlights it perfectly, or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 If JAMSTEC is right looks like a really cold Jan and Feb I think most agree that Dec is going to start off above normal so in order to get to those below normal temps it's going to take very cold. Just my opinion still learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 KA's call on main forum if others have not looked: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46928-ka-winter-outlook-2015-16-mine-also-others-please-post-here/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 How did KA do last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I think the tripole is a displaced a bit north. It is not classic, but not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 How did KA do last year? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44514-ka-winter-outlook/ Temperatures:Above Average Snowfall:Average Rainfall:Above Average Seasonal Temps:+1.3 to +1.7 Monthly: Dec:0 to +1 Jan:0 Feb:+4 Snowfall DCA:15" Analog years:1974(5),1984(5), 1992(3)1997(8),2001(2) Believes there will be a major ice storm around 1/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44514-ka-winter-outlook/ not so hot last year his opinion still has much value but it's not something that I, as a weenie, consternate over the risk with any strong NINO is that a blow out bad is as much on the table as a blow out great is (probably more so with the bad), so he could be way high on his snow forecast as much as we would all like to see higher snowfall numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I'm sticking with my snowy December call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I'm sticking with my snowy December call Dec1st.JPG just think of how much it will really end up being once the lousy CFS2 realizes how much cold air that storm will create Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 not so hot last year his opinion still has much value but it's not something that I, as a weenie, consternate over the risk with any strong NINO is that a blow out bad is as much on the table as a blow out great is (probably more so with the bad), so he could be way high on his snow forecast as much as we would all like to see higher snowfall numbers I'm honestly not at all concerned about his forecast either way. It's not all about Nino, but you can't ignore it. I personally think that making a call this far out is a lesson in futility. If someone hits it at this point, they'll just claim "first." If they don't hit it, then they'll pat themselves on the back for having the balls to make the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Ginx Snewx in the SNE forum flagged this site in their winter disco, which I thought some here might find of interest if nto already seen - http://ecws.eas.cornell.edu/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 If we had a pattern like the one advertised on the 18z gfs, but in 3 months, this board would be hopping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Big winter coming....you know....soil moisture and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960. Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department: We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. cpcao.JPG The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960. Summer Blocking.JPG Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department: summerblockingwinter.JPG We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. What about the epo? Do we look to have a fall back if the big two won't cooperate again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. cpcao.JPG The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960. Summer Blocking.JPG Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department: summerblockingwinter.JPG We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 What about the epo? Do we look to have a fall back if the big two won't cooperate again? General nino climo doesn't favor a persistent -epo because the oscillations with low pressure in the GOA region generally don't allow a persistent ridge like we saw the last couple years. However, there should be periods where the epo is negative. Nino's are generally mixed evenly in that department. IMO- the "fall back" in general will be a +PNA. Unless we get totally screwed with strong low pressure on the means tucked too far east in the Npac and just overwhelming everything else we should be ok. Nothing could save 97-98 because of this. The numerical indices look pretty good that winter but the sensible weather sucked because of the beast in the npac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The case for blocking to be favorable for at least some of our winter continues to get stronger. Fairly strong Oct blocking event unfolding over the next week. GEFS consensus for a potential -3sd event. cpcao.JPG The chart above also shows how persistently negative the AO has behaved since July with the index only briefly breaking +1 last week for the first time since June. The July-September average came in at -.654 which is the 3rd lowest since 1950 behind 1968 and 1960. Summer Blocking.JPG Mitch will love seeing 72-73 on that list....lol The winters following look pretty good in the blocking department: summerblockingwinter.JPG We'll see how things progress through fall but I'm feeling pretty good about not having a raging +AO/NAO combo on the means this winter. At least there are early signs with some decent data to argue against it anyways. I think 1950 and 1972 are the only red-headed step winters for sne on that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I think 1950 and 1972 are the only red-headed step winters for sne on that list. as bad as 72/73 may have been for NE, I'm sure the .1" and 1.2" that fell at DCA and BWI respectively got you beat by a wiiiiiiiide margin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 as bad as 72/73 may have been for NE, I'm sure the .1" and 1.2" that fell at DCA and BWI respectively got you beat by a wiiiiiiiide margin! I think Philly recorded 0" that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 General nino climo doesn't favor a persistent -epo because the oscillations with low pressure in the GOA region generally don't allow a persistent ridge like we saw the last couple years. However, there should be periods where the epo is negative. Nino's are generally mixed evenly in that department. IMO- the "fall back" in general will be a +PNA. Unless we get totally screwed with strong low pressure on the means tucked too far east in the Npac and just overwhelming everything else we should be ok. Nothing could save 97-98 because of this. The numerical indices look pretty good that winter but the sensible weather sucked because of the beast in the npac. Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I think Philly recorded 0" that winter Great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 as bad as 72/73 may have been for NE, I'm sure the .1" and 1.2" that fell at DCA and BWI respectively got you beat by a wiiiiiiiide margin! 38.1" here. Normal is about 63-64", so....blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I think Philly recorded 0" that winter they had a bunch of traces that year...If I was living in DC I would be expecting a major blizzard this winter...But I don't so my expectations don't count... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Horses winter coats coming in hot and heavy early...especially the older one. I'm feeling like this is going to be a just fine winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 they had a bunch of traces that year...If I was living in DC I would be expecting a major blizzard this winter...But I don't so my expectations don't count... I'm not sure about a major blizzard because too much has to go right even in the "right year". OTOH- the odds of having some slower moving and moisture laden storms that cover a large geographic area are probably as good as they have been since 09-10 for obvious reasons. DC and east will usually mix or flirt with the dryslot with miller A's in general. Of course worse than mixing...all rain...is certainly a concern. IMHO- I think areas 30+ miles to the N-W of the cities (mainly north of Nokesville) should be pretty optimistic at this point. Still an awful long ways to go. Hopefully disaster looks less likely than decent come December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I'm not sure about a major blizzard because too much has to go right even in the "right year". OTOH- the odds of having some slower moving and moisture laden storms that cover a large geographic area are probably as good as they have been since 09-10 for obvious reasons. DC and east will usually mix or flirt with the dryslot with miller A's in general. Of course worse than mixing...all rain...is certainly a concern. IMHO- I think areas 30+ miles to the N-W of the cities (mainly north of Nokesville) should be pretty optimistic at this point. Still an awful long ways to go. Hopefully disaster looks less likely than decent come December. Nice read above Bob! For as sucky as this pattern was in 73 somehow we squeaked out a 12" winter over a couple of events. But yeah, the western parts of NC/VA do quite well in enso++. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Warm temps in the Atlantic should help produce blocking correct? a -NAO plus -AO combined with an El Nino definitely has a lot of potential to produce major storms. until March last year, Philly was in the screw zone in every storm. Hoping for a few huge storms... overall: above average December below average Jan-March snowfall: 35" in Philly, 25" in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Warm temps in the Atlantic should help produce blocking correct? a -NAO plus -AO combined with an El Nino definitely has a lot of potential to produce major storms. until March last year, Philly was in the screw zone in every storm. Hoping for a few huge storms... overall: above average December below average Jan-March snowfall: 35" in Philly, 25" in DCA My folks live in Collegeville. Love that Pizza place there. I think its called Pizza Stop? I'm not sure about a major blizzard because too much has to go right even in the "right year". OTOH- the odds of having some slower moving and moisture laden storms that cover a large geographic area are probably as good as they have been since 09-10 for obvious reasons. DC and east will usually mix or flirt with the dryslot with miller A's in general. Of course worse than mixing...all rain...is certainly a concern. IMHO- I think areas 30+ miles to the N-W of the cities (mainly north of Nokesville) should be pretty optimistic at this point. Still an awful long ways to go. Hopefully disaster looks less likely than decent come December. As always, good stuff Bob. I will be floored if we go above normal 3 years in a row though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 My folks live in Collegeville. Love that Pizza place there. I think its called Pizza Stop? As always, good stuff Bob. I will be floored if we go above normal 3 years in a row though. Yessir! but have they had rococo's? I prefer them, but Pizza Stop always a solid choice too. And I'm excited for the winter. Too far SW for the blizzard, too far N for the storm the week before the blizzard, too warm for a few of the overrunning events (Super Bowl storm). Wasn't until the March 5th storm we had a hit over 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.