mattie g Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I'm going with StormchaserChuck's mysterious, yet money, calculations predicting a -NAO until something tells me otherwise. I'm gunning to take down '09-'10. Go big or go the F home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 And that's another point...........location matters a ton. You guys down near sea level are always on thin ice.....no pun intended. Yes exact location matters. Few here would argue that the last 2 winters were not good, outside of Ji. We had significant cold periods, and above average snowfall. But in both cases, we lucked out a bit with having an almost ideal pattern on the Pacific side. And without a persistent -AO/NAO, its more difficult to get a big storm that does not cut west, or go Milller B. Your area can do pretty well in storms that cut inland, esp on the front end. For the coastal plain, that does not work most times. Even the past 2 winters, (esp last winter) bigger storms mostly brought soaking rains. Off the top of my head, I think I had 2 snow events, maybe 3, in the 6-8" range the last 2 winters combined, but most were 6 or under. There was really no way to even sniff a double digit snowfall here in that pattern. I think there is good reason for -AO/NAO being talked about a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 SSTA's in the GOA region have gone through quite the transition over the last month. Looking at ens over the next 10-15 days it looks like a series of troughs will affect the region going forward. Wouldn't be surprised so see a lot more blue on the maps in the coming weeks. IMO- it's not a bad sign at all. I pretty much expected it. Just a reminder how easy it is to change in response to the pattern. Nino config looks better with every update though. That's much more important than the GOA. Aug 10th: Today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 SSTA's in the GOA region have gone through quite the transition over the last month. Looking at ens over the next 10-15 days it looks like a series of troughs will affect the region going forward. Wouldn't be surprised so see a lot more blue on the maps in the coming weeks. IMO- it's not a bad sign at all. I pretty much expected it. Just a reminder how easy it is to change in response to the pattern. Nino config looks better with every update though. That's much more important than the GOA. Aug 10th: Today: Agree Bob. And fwiw (and I really don't know what that is!), the CFS2 has been backing down noticeably in the past week in all regions except, thankfully, ENSO 4. Here's to hoping it's correct with its recent adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Week 1 of the NFL has always been the time when I started to get a little giddy for the upcoming winter. Can't believe it is already coming. It feels like summer & spring flew by, maybe because of the March snow/cold we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Agree Bob. And fwiw (and I really don't know what that is!), the CFS2 has been backing down noticeably in the past week in all regions except, thankfully, ENSO 4. Here's to hoping it's correct with its recent adjustments. Your picture should be on posters for the CFSv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Week 1 of the NFL has always been the time when I started to get a little giddy for the upcoming winter. Can't believe it is already coming. It feels like summer & spring flew by, maybe because of the March snow/cold we had.Hey, you're back! Winter's just around the corner now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Your picture should be on posters for the CFSv2I'll make you a believer before the end of this winter, you watch. Just be prepared to keep an open mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 actually, I was surprised how screwed they got in 09/10, but you had to go pretty far north into NE before the screw pierced the colon wall That would be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Week 1 of the NFL has always been the time when I started to get a little giddy for the upcoming winter. Can't believe it is already coming. It feels like summer & spring flew by, maybe because of the March snow/cold we had. Weird to have the Birds not play on opening Sunday, but I'll take an early Monday night game. Looking forward to many a sick pattern this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Looking forward to many a sick pattern this winter! My official forecast isn't out yet but my early thoughts are 5-6' of pattern. Maybe more. Possibly some deep deep pattern at times. Not sure about snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Let's just hope it means something. I'm pretty skeptical that there is a connection and even if there is, it may be full of noise. But we live and die more often than not by the AO down here in MA. It's pretty unusual to have such a persistent negative AO/NAO state during the summer so that is notable. If my estimate is low this summer could be the lowest 2 month reading in modern record. I think the biggest caveat this year is that even if we get high latitude blocking it can easily be overwhelmed with a nasty Pac setup. 2012-13 is a good recent example and 97-98 is another that also includes strong +enso. I won't be too scared if Dec features a persistent goa vortex too close to NA but if we move into Jan with no end in sight then past history does us no favors with that. I think Coastal is the one in your forum that says it best: "weather just being weather". No matter how much we try to know...at the end of the day...we really don't know. IMO- the GOA is not going to look like many are hoping come November. It's been slowly moving in the wrong direction all summer and Sept-Oct can easily plant low height anoms and low pressure in that region. Nino climo doesn't favor widespread +anoms in the GOA at all and there's a point where feedbacks from SSTs don't mean much anymore as the size of the anomaly decreases. Today's update shows the majority of the anoms in that region <=1.5C Nino regions are looking better though. Definite improvement in 3-3.4-4 vs 30 days ago. I wouldn't expect it to since we will likely be heading into winter with an ugly GOA positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 My seasonal forecast for "predicted" snows: D10+: 140" D7: 85" D5: 55" D3: 25" D1+: 12" Actual: 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It's quite valid over time though. Unusual years are just part of the game but they are most certainly underdog victories. If we're not going to get blocking then something else must overwhelm in very anomalous fashion (-epo obviously the last 2 years). Nino's in particular really need help with blocking in our region and even then it's far from a guaranty. Our worst recent nino's other than the 97-98 beast (91-92, 72-73, 94-95) featured +AO's basically door to door. Other "so-so" nino winters like 04-05, 06-07 etc) had the only meaningful snowfalls during the periods of blocking in otherwise hostile states during the balance. All the good Nino's had anomalous blocking during the majority of winter months. I get what you're saying though. It definitely "can" snow good here when the raw #s would point the other way. Luck plays a role for sure but that can be said in all instances. From a statistical perspective, far more of our decent snowstorms/winters occur with a favorable -ao and/or nao. Wes' scatter plot diagram of 4"+ snows shows it very clearly that far more of our snowstorms occur with blocking than without. Defying statistics 2 years in a row won't change my thinking in any way other than it's sure feels good to have a horseshoe tossed our way once in a while. I'm fairly confident in making the statement that a raging +AO this year will end up with very crappy totals. Maybe not in your yard though. The EPO is blocking...just in a different region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 My official forecast isn't out yet but my early thoughts are 5-6' of pattern. Maybe more. Possibly some deep deep pattern at times. Not sure about snow though. I have no doubt that we'll see days and days of sick, sick pattern... While we bask in the mid-50s in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I'm thinking +5, +6, +8 for temps and, after a shocking El Niño collapse, 10% of normal precip, all in one storm, a Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I'm thinking +5, +6, +8 for temps and, after a shocking El Niño collapse, 10% of normal precip, all in one storm, a Rainer. So, you're betting that we will enter a cooler, wetter regime this winter. Risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I'm thinking +5, +6, +8 for temps and, after a shocking El Niño collapse, 10% of normal precip, all in one storm, a Rainer. I love it keep I hope it comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I'm thinking +5, +6, +8 for temps and, after a shocking El Niño collapse, 10% of normal precip, all in one storm, a Rainer. Followed by a March 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 So, you're betting that we will enter a cooler, wetter regime this winter. Risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 0.1" for the season is what DCA got in 1972-73 and 1997-98...Philadelphia a trace in 72-73...That is unbelievable...we all hope this doesn't happen this year...1982-83 would be nice...One big one for all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Me and zwyts are both going above average snow for DCA as of yesterday. My secret recipe indicates increased risk of a Veterans Day II this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Listen to him, he knows. Me and zwyts are both going above average snow for DCA as of yesterday. My secret recipe indicates increased risk of a Veterans Day II this year as well. Being next to an Atlantic that is 6C above average is more than enough reason to throw all your chips on the table. All you need is one well-timed storm. Snowfall has never said much about winter as a whole. If your reasoning was based on something other than trends since 2000s then I'd say it's probably flawed and right for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Me and zwyts are both going above average snow for DCA as of yesterday. My secret recipe indicates increased risk of a Veterans Day II this year as well. Veterans or Valentines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 here's hoping we don't see the +1 year on this run popping up too much this fall on the 5H analogs that said, some of the other years are tasty interestingly, 1953 had a decent snow in NOV....shades of another Veterans' Day type event to come??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Me and zwyts are both going above average snow for DCA as of yesterday. My secret recipe indicates increased risk of a Veterans Day II this year as well. I really think you two should talk with WeatherBoy017 before you issue any more proclamations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Me and zwyts are both going above average snow for DCA as of yesterday. My secret recipe indicates increased risk of a Veterans Day II this year as well. Good to have such a distinguished weather group on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Good to have such a distinguished weather group on my side.We're going to catch up this year. 120" of snow, and our last piles might not melt until late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 We're going to catch up this year. 120" of snow, and our last piles might not melt until late February. Contradictory expectations. A bizarre winter would definitely fit with what I'm expecting. If we are lucky, we will have mixed intervals of spring and winter at the same time coupled with the usual precipitation enhancement during el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 We're going to catch up this year. 120" of snow, and our last piles might not melt until late February. That's what happens when you get five Archambault KUs in one season at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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