Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[CAPE]

I believe that he is the same Chuck from Eastern. Either that or he has duped me and several others in the general forum 2015 ENSO Super Thread.

MDstorm

Maybe it is him then. I hope it is. But anyone who read the initial post in his OT thread is convinced he is a troll. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have zero doubt that it's him.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had to estimate August's # because it's not out yet and the daily numbers for the month haven't been posted on CPC's site yet. But for the exercise, the estimate is close enough. 

 

Makes a case for higher chances of the AO cooperating this winter. 2011 and 2014 don't do us any favors but it hardly matters considering the really small data set and also the fact that July and August AO readings may mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme irt winter. But it's fun to look at either way. 

 

JA AO.JPG

Wow...good stuff.

[OKwx2K4]

I just wander in here from time to time and read your regions posts. Just wanted to take the time to say thank you for all the information and effort you all put into what you write and post here. I learn a lot from this region in regards to winter weather and forecasting every year. Thanks again.

[Bob Chill]

Wow...good stuff.

 

Let's just hope it means something. I'm pretty skeptical that there is a connection and even if there is, it may be full of noise. But we live and die more often than not by the AO down here in MA.  It's pretty unusual to have such a persistent negative AO/NAO state during the summer so that is notable. If my estimate is low this summer could be the lowest 2 month reading in modern record. 

 

I think the biggest caveat this year is that even if we get high latitude blocking it can easily be overwhelmed with a nasty Pac setup. 2012-13 is a good recent example and 97-98 is another that also includes strong +enso. I won't be too scared if Dec features a persistent goa vortex too close to NA but if we move into Jan with no end in sight then past history does us no favors with that. I think Coastal is the one in your forum that says it best: "weather just being weather". No matter how much we try to know...at the end of the day...we really don't know. 

 

IMO- the GOA is not going to look like many are hoping come November. It's been slowly moving in the wrong direction all summer and Sept-Oct can easily plant low height anoms and low pressure in that region. Nino climo doesn't favor widespread +anoms in the GOA at all and there's a point where feedbacks from SSTs don't mean much anymore as the size of the anomaly decreases. 

 

Today's update shows the majority of the anoms in that region <=1.5C

 

 

Nino regions are looking better though. Definite improvement in 3-3.4-4 vs 30 days ago. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Not good trends in the Gulf of Alaska.  Waters continue to cool, signaling a Pacific that will probably not cooperate this winter.

 

[Bob Chill]

Not good trends in the Gulf of Alaska.  Waters continue to cool, signaling a Pacific that will probably not cooperate this winter.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

It's typical for a nino to not have a massive pool of + anoms in the GOA. Look back @ 02 & 09. 

 

02 managed to hang onto +anoms right along the coast of the pac nw/canada/ak but magnitude was minimal. I don't think saying the goa is cooling so the pac won't cooperate is a good connection. I couldn't find any Nino's with a big and persistent -epo so it's hard to expect this one to be any different. 

[packbacker]

It's typical for a nino to not have a massive pool of + anoms in the GOA. Look back @ 02 & 09. 

 

02 managed to hang onto +anoms right along the coast of the pac nw/canada/ak but magnitude was minimal. I don't think saying the goa is cooling so the pac won't cooperate is a good connection. I couldn't find any Nino's with a big and persistent -epo so it's hard to expect this one to be any different.

It cooled quite a bit last year from June/July to Dec.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Expect unmitigated failure. The last good winter was 09-10 and we have been paying for that ever since. DC region is not a snow town unless you're NW of US-15.

 

OK, just coming out of my late spring and summer "hibernation" now that it's technically meteorological autumn!   Can't resist the pre-season discussions of the upcoming winter!

 

I had to LOL at the above quoted comment to some extent.  Snark?  Ji in disguise?  Nah, can't be Ji because he would probably say that the winter of '09-10 was not so great since it ended after Feb. 10!  (Wait...I'd have to go back and check, but he may really have said something like that!!)

 

I wouldn't necessarily expect "unmitigated failure", but rather relatively low expectations, or at least reasonable ones.  That's typically a good idea in these parts any winter.  We tend to be a pretty sarcastic bunch always waiting for the other shoe to drop for any event that looks potentially good here.  Can't totally blame us, either!  At any rate, as others have noted, the past two winters were remarkably good with greater than normal snowfall and plenty of cold.  They're even more remarkable given the rather hostile north-Atlantic we had (almost no blocking to speak of!).  So I'd hardly say '09-10 was the "last good winter" we've had.  Plus, I'm personally not into the whole idea that we have to somehow "pay for" whatever good winter with X number of lousy ones before we score anything again.

 

You want unmitigated disasters for winters?  How about 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2012-13?  Including the bitter "No-quester" white rain event in early March 2013, at the end of back-to-back craptastic seasons.  Those three are at the top of my list of lousy winters in the time I've lived around here (moved here in July 2001).  I might almost be tempted to toss 2007-08 and 2008-09 up on that list too as an honorable mentions.  I'm sure others who have been here far longer can add other "winners" for futility.

 

We've had plenty of other "meh" winters  that were below normal for snowfall in the time I've lived here and plenty of missed events and under-performers.  But at least those years were kind of interesting here and there.  The three I listed above had absolutely nothing redeeming about them the entire duration.

 

On the flip-side, in the time I've been here, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2013-14, and 2014-15 were the "top best" (in chronological order).

 

I have no real idea what to consider yet for this upcoming winter, other than I wouldn't expect the Pacific to be nearly as favorable as it was the past two (which "saved" us then!).  Others have said with a Nino this year, going for wetter than normal is a safe bet.  Beyond that, not sure what to think for temperatures.  I don't envision it being as cold as the last two years, but that doesn't have to be a bad thing.  Even if it's slightly warmer than normal overall (but no torch!), if we can get some actual blocking this season, we can still have decent chances to time the cold air right.  I have a feeling we should do much better on the north-Atlantic front, but that doesn't really say much and compared to what we've had previously, it's a low bar!

 

We really need predictions on how many times Ji cancels winter, and how many events we can pull out the   emoticon after seeing the Euro (hello Bob Chill, haha!)!

 

All speculation on my part, and perhaps a long-winded and somewhat polite way to say that there's no reason to be so pessimistic as to expect the absolute worst.  Yet, at least!

 

Besides...unmitigated failure is going 0-11 after a 2-1 start in the alumni softball league I play for, followed by 0-3 in the tournament bracket we were in (all  losses in the tourney > 10 runs, too!)!   But hey, it was fun, and the beer is always good!

[mattie g]

Not good trends in the Gulf of Alaska. Waters continue to cool, signaling a Pacific that will probably not cooperate this winter.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

September 3. Impressive.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Let's just hope it means something. I'm pretty skeptical that there is a connection and even if there is, it may be full of noise. But we live and die more often than not by the AO down here in MA. It's pretty unusual to have such a persistent negative AO/NAO state during the summer so that is notable. If my estimate is low this summer could be the lowest 2 month reading in modern record.

I think the biggest caveat this year is that even if we get high latitude blocking it can easily be overwhelmed with a nasty Pac setup. 2012-13 is a good recent example and 97-98 is another that also includes strong +enso. I won't be too scared if Dec features a persistent goa vortex too close to NA but if we move into Jan with no end in sight then past history does us no favors with that. I think Coastal is the one in your forum that says it best: "weather just being weather". No matter how much we try to know...at the end of the day...we really don't know.

IMO- the GOA is not going to look like many are hoping come November. It's been slowly moving in the wrong direction all summer and Sept-Oct can easily plant low height anoms and low pressure in that region. Nino climo doesn't favor widespread +anoms in the GOA at all and there's a point where feedbacks from SSTs don't mean much anymore as the size of the anomaly decreases.

Today's update shows the majority of the anoms in that region <=1.5C

Nino regions are looking better though. Definite improvement in 3-3.4-4 vs 30 days ago.

Pretty hard for me to be concerned about the AO. We just came out of two really good winters that were dominated by a pos AO.

Seems to me there must be a bigger driving force.

[mattie g]

Pretty hard for me to be concerned about the AO. We just came out of two really good winters that were dominated by a pos AO.

Seems to me there must be a bigger driving force.

-NAO or transient blocks.

<nosh*tsherlock>But give me a -AO and -NAO with a very strong Nino and I'll gladly take my chances!</nosh*tsherlock>

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty hard for me to be concerned about the AO. We just came out of two really good winters that were dominated by a pos AO.

Seems to me there must be a bigger driving force.

 

 

It was somewhat of an anomaly that we had such drastic EPO blocking while keeping the AO positive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's typical for a nino to not have a massive pool of + anoms in the GOA. Look back @ 02 & 09. 

 

02 managed to hang onto +anoms right along the coast of the pac nw/canada/ak but magnitude was minimal. I don't think saying the goa is cooling so the pac won't cooperate is a good connection. I couldn't find any Nino's with a big and persistent -epo so it's hard to expect this one to be any different. 

I could def. see that this season.

[Fozz]

Pretty hard for me to be concerned about the AO. We just came out of two really good winters that were dominated by a pos AO.

Seems to me there must be a bigger driving force.

 

Problem is, we probably won't be saved by the Pacific this time since El Nino climo is hostile to a -EPO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Problem is, we probably won't be saved by the Pacific this time since El Nino climo is hostile to a -EPO.

If it isn't east-based, the GOA low will retrograde in January.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Pretty hard for me to be concerned about the AO. We just came out of two really good winters that were dominated by a pos AO.

Seems to me there must be a bigger driving force.

 

Yes, the inverse Siberian October snow-cover index.

[mattie g]

If it isn't east-based, the GOA low will retrograde in January.

The problem is that there will be plenty of folks running toward the ledge if and when December and early January look toast (which is obviously much more likely down here). I know a lot of folks think it's passé to talk about late January and into February as being the likely better months, but the simple fact is that until there's a reason to think otherwise, that's the best bet.

This area only did OK last year because of late winter, otherwise it was pretty bad. I can see the same thing happening this year, if for different reasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yes, the inverse Siberian October snow-cover index.

Not last year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The problem is that there will be plenty of folks running toward the ledge if and when December and early January look toast (which is obviously much more likely down here). I know a lot of folks think it's passé to talk about late January and into February as being the likely better months, but the simple fact is that until there's a reason to think otherwise, that's the best bet.

This area only did OK last year because of late winter, otherwise it was pretty bad. I can see the same thing happening this year, if for different reasons.

Problem is that we have vastly different perspectives.

In my area, I expect the season to be a success given the players on the field and their positions, until given reason to think otherwise.

But I certainly would  not be resigned to failure down there, although you should maintain realistic expectations.

 

If the NAO/AO and N Pac ever shake hands on a negative state, then I'd favor your area for the greatest snowfall anomalies.

[Bob Chill]

Problem is, we probably won't be saved by the Pacific this time since El Nino climo is hostile to a -EPO.

 

Stronger ninos aren't "hostile" in the sense that they favor an overall + state. Past history shows the epo to oscillate between +/-. With a + state slightly favored overall.  I posted these a while back but I'll repost. 

 

DJF EPO for strong +enso

 

57-58

 

65-66

 

72-73

 

82-83

 

97-98

 

 

Just like 40/70 said, the placement of the typical low height anomaly in the GOA will likely be the primary driver of temps in general. There is no way to know other than guess whether it ends up too far east and far enough west. IMO- The most likely outcome is that it ends up working for and against through the season. Which months are favorable vs unfavorable is up in the air. Many think that Dec will be a bad period. I personally think it's equal chances in Dec. Still doesn't mean we produce down here of course. But I'll reserve writing off December somewhere in the middle of the month. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bob, great point...folks concentrate too much on an aggregate number at the end of a given season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I won't jump.

 

Despite how frustrated I was, I  maintained that a historic comeback was in the offing until it appeared.

 

I didn't expect that, but no one ever would.

[mappy]

toaster bath for all of the East Coast this winter?  

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not sure if it's early memory loss but I dont remember Jan being bad last year

[mattie g]

The difference is that this year we should all have plenty of notice that this season could be backloaded. No one should be jumping in December (barely a winter month near the cities anyway) or January unless there is compelling evidence to.

I agree, but you and I both know that there will be plenty of folks googling flights to the Grand Canyon should the long-range look pretty fail-ish in December.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Dec through Feb 13th was the worst period of weather I've ever experienced in my life and I pray I never see it again. I think virtually everyone east of the Mississippi was virtually blanked through at least 2/3 of January. And we're not even talking about the three consecutive screw jobs we got from the models inside 72hrs.

Because of the Clipper That Did (4" lolli imby) I had more snow that PHI, NYC, and BOS at some point in January. It was horrendous.

That's not completely true, at least here.

 

We had a clipper that put down about 3" around the 6th of January with two days of bitter cold to follow.  I don't remember much about the rest of the month.  I could check my snow totals to remind myself.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Here are my totals that I had posted in the snow totals thread.  Not a terrible month, especially considering that it was about a -3 on temps.

 

01-06-2015 2.25"
01-21-2015 1"
01-24-2015 0.5"
01-26-2015 3.5"

[MN Transplant]

I had 7.0" through mid-Feb last year.  It was a pretty cruddy year that turned around with a good finish.  In contrast, I had 4 total "events" in '11-12 that totaled 3.1".

 

6 years of good measurements at my house:

 

69.0"

12.5"

3.1"

12.5"

48.3"

22.7"

 

Love that variance.

[Ian]

I won't jump.

 

Despite how frustrated I was, I  maintained that a historic comeback was in the offing until it appeared.

 

I didn't expect that, but no one ever would.

Who are you?