mitchnick Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Enjoy your 2 months of winter. Really looking forward to the wavelength shift tho, mabye it will bring back tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Enjoy your 2 months of winter. Really looking forward to the wavelength shift tho, mabye it will bring back tornadoes. Great post. Really great post. I'm glad you stayed up until 2am to post it. You must have been really tired at work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Great post. Really great post. I'm glad you stayed up until 2am to post it. You must have been really tired at work today. The population drops from 250k to 20k this time of the year. I'll let you figure out the rest. This weather is making me bitter so apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Just moved to DC from Boston. After the winter we had last year, it's depressing thinking about what climo is for this area haha. I'd be satisfied with a near average snowfall, but from what I'm reading even that seems unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Just moved to DC from Boston. After the winter we had last year, it's depressing thinking about what climo is for this area haha. I'd be satisfied with a near average snowfall, but from what I'm reading even that seems unlikely? The "average" for this area tends to be misleading, especially inside the beltway. The "median" snowfall is going to be a more accurate measure of what to expect in an average year. The true average gets pulled up by years where we have incredible snowfalls, i.e. 02-03, 09-10, 13-14, 14-15. We do see some pretty impressive stretches here from time to time. Certainly not like New England, but the right storm track and entrenched Canadian fronts can make this part of the country loook and feel much further North than it is. I work with a bunch of people from New York and Boston, they all complained this year about how they thought going this far South meant an easier winter. Just take a look at this stretch from February starting around the 10th and going through the first week of March. Those were great times on this forum haha. It gets very active in here that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The "average" for this area tends to be misleading, especially inside the beltway. The "median" snowfall is going to be a more accurate measure of what to expect in an average year. The true average gets pulled up by years where we have incredible snowfalls, i.e. 02-03, 09-10, 12-13, 13-14. We do see some pretty impressive stretches here from time to time. Certainly not like New England, but the right storm track and entrenched Canadian fronts can make this part of the country loook and feel much further North than it is. I work with a bunch of people from New York and Boston, they all complained this year about how they thought going this far South meant an easier winter. Just take a look at this stretch from February starting around the 10th and going through the first week of March. Those were great times on this forum haha. It gets very active in here that time of year. Aww, just tell him the truth that DC gives new meaning to disappointment if you're a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 That is the benefit of living in DC and Cfa (humid-subtropical). Hopefully i'm not alone in this mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Since the important features for winter wx won't be known until winter starts, there's no reason to not be a bit optimistic about knocking down 3 good ones in a row. We stole the first 2. May as well capitalize on a more traditional way to get a couple good storms this winter. I'm not the least bit worried about a conus torch like 97-98 until it actually starts happening and it locked in. I find the seasonal forecasts popping up kinda funny. Warm December and back loaded. Wet southern tier and east coast. Lol. Groundbreaking stuff. I'm going normal to below temps and above normal snow in Dec just cuz nobody else is. Predicting the opposite is a good technique that has equal to possibly better chances at verifying than the herd's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The "average" for this area tends to be misleading, especially inside the beltway. The "median" snowfall is going to be a more accurate measure of what to expect in an average year. The true average gets pulled up by years where we have incredible snowfalls, i.e. 02-03, 09-10, 12-13, 13-14. We do see some pretty impressive stretches here from time to time. Certainly not like New England, but the right storm track and entrenched Canadian fronts can make this part of the country loook and feel much further North than it is. I work with a bunch of people from New York and Boston, they all complained this year about how they thought going this far South meant an easier winter. Just take a look at this stretch from February starting around the 10th and going through the first week of March. Those were great times on this forum haha. It gets very active in here that time of year. Thanks for the info. I'll definitely keep my expectations down then haha. I'm sure we'll get a decent stretch at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3668345 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3668345 Stunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Just moved to DC from Boston. After the winter we had last year, it's depressing thinking about what climo is for this area haha. I'd be satisfied with a near average snowfall, but from what I'm reading even that seems unlikely? Expect unmitigated failure. The last good winter was 09-10 and we have been paying for that ever since. DC region is not a snow town unless you're NW of US-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Expect unmitigated failure. The last good winter was 09-10 and we have been paying for that ever since. DC region is not a snow town unless you're NW of US-15. Wow, tell us how you really feel... I'VE enjoyed the last two winters quite a bit. This year's was a little late and backloaded, but that was an incredibly impressive stretch Feb into March. 13-14 I was still in Harrisonburg for which was a lot of fun. Got womped by that surprise St. Patty's Day storm with 9 inches in the Northern part of the valley. Cutoff was brutal for that storm though, South of 64 saw almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 EJ, if you don't recognize the last 2 winters here as being pretty good then I don't know what to tell you. Using 09-10 as a bar seems out there to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Expect unmitigated failure. The last good winter was 09-10 and we have been paying for that ever since. DC region is not a snow town unless you're NW of US-15. Um, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Um, not even close. I had 83" of snow in 13/14, 46" last winter, and I am east of US 15. How is that not a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Expect unmitigated failure. The last good winter was 09-10 and we have been paying for that ever since. DC region is not a snow town unless you're NW of US-15. I had 83" of snow in 13/14, 46" last winter, and I am east of US 15. How is that not a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I had 83" of snow in 13/14, 46" last winter, and I am east of US 15. How is that not a good winter. I am waaaaay east of there, and I had significantly above avg snow the past 2 winters. DC proper and immediate burbs may be a wretched snow hole in recent years, but that does not translate to other areas that are generally on the same lat or lon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Um, not even close. Yeah, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I had to estimate August's # because it's not out yet and the daily numbers for the month haven't been posted on CPC's site yet. But for the exercise, the estimate is close enough. Makes a case for higher chances of the AO cooperating this winter. 2011 and 2014 don't do us any favors but it hardly matters considering the really small data set and also the fact that July and August AO readings may mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme irt winter. But it's fun to look at either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I had to estimate August's # because it's not out yet and the daily numbers for the month haven't been posted on CPC's site yet. But for the exercise, the estimate is close enough. Makes a case for higher chances of the AO cooperating this winter. 2011 and 2014 don't do us any favors but it hardly matters considering the really small data set and also the fact that July and August AO readings may mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme irt winter. But it's fun to look at either way. JA AO.JPG Love these posts. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I'll take the temps from Jan/Feb/Mar of this past winter with a raging El Niño. Thanks, that will be all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Love these posts. Thanks for posting. StormchaserChuck.......it's been quite a while since Easternuswx. Welcome back! MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 My winter outlook. December will be warm with normal precip. Terps basketball will go undefeated in December as well. January will start warm but end up with seasonal temps with normal precip. Feburary will be up and down temps wise with below normal precip. March will be way above normal with normal precip. For the lower eastern shore I'm calling for a total, this winter, of less than 6". Please keep in mind that my climate is a worlds away from you guys across the bay. Now for the biggest call of them all. TERPS National Champs which will make this upcoming sucky winter worth while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 My winter outlook. December will be warm with normal precip. Terps basketball will go undefeated in December as well. January will start warm but end up with seasonal temps with normal precip. Feburary will be up and down temps wise with below normal precip. March will be way above normal with normal precip. For the lower eastern shore I'm calling for a total, this winter, of less than 6". Please keep in mind that my climate is a worlds away from you guys across the bay. Now for the biggest call of them all. TERPS National Champs which will make this upcoming sucky winter worth while Winter 2001/2002 was awful but it brought a championship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 StormchaserChuck.......it's been quite a while since Easternuswx. Welcome back! MDstorm I don't beleive this is the same guy from Eastern. Not after reading his thread in OT. Or maybe it is, and he has just done a lot of acid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 My winter outlook. December will be warm with normal precip. Terps basketball will go undefeated in December as well. January will start warm but end up with seasonal temps with normal precip. Feburary will be up and down temps wise with below normal precip. March will be way above normal with normal precip. For the lower eastern shore I'm calling for a total, this winter, of less than 6". Please keep in mind that my climate is a worlds away from you guys across the bay. Now for the biggest call of them all. TERPS National Champs which will make this upcoming sucky winter worth while Winter 2001/2002 was awful but it brought a championship I will take only one dusting all winter if that means a national championship. Fear the turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I don't beleive this is the same guy from Eastern. Not after reading his thread in OT. Or maybe it is, and he has just done a lot of acid. I was disturbed by it to be honest. Seems like another multi-account but who am I to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I don't beleive this is the same guy from Eastern. Not after reading his thread in OT. Or maybe it is, and he has just done a lot of acid. I believe that he is the same Chuck from Eastern. Either that or he has duped me and several others in the general forum 2015 ENSO Super Thread. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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