mattie g Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Strange that DCA was so low. BWI's Octobers in 1972, 1997, 2002, & 2009 respectively were 3.51", 3.43", 6.01" & 6.24". Average for the month is 3.33". 10/82 was 2.31", not that unusually low. By looking at the maps Bob posted, it seems to me that BWI's numbers are pretty localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 By looking at the maps Bob posted, it seems to me that BWI's numbers are pretty localized. hey, it's an "imby" hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 By looking at the maps Bob posted, it seems to me that BWI's numbers are pretty localized. 02 is the only year with notable widespread + anoms. I personally don't see much of an Oct signal for + precip outside of localized anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC HAS UPDATED!!! I'm pleasantly surprised:DJF Temp AnomaliesDJF SST's**Keeps GOA warmer than both it's June & July updates. Interesting!!DJF PRECIPNINO peaks at the end of Sept...then begins weakening. Earlier peak...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC HAS UPDATED!!! I'm pleasantly surprised: DJF Temp Anomalies So, practically the entire globe is on fire except the south/central/mid-atlantic U.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 So, practically the entire globe is on fire except the south/central/mid-atlantic U.S.? JAMSTEC always does that. It likes using a broad brush to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC always does that. It likes using a broad brush to say the least. Does it have any skill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Does it have any skill? depends on who you ask lol since it comes out with a new forecast every month, it's prone to some major shifts here's a link to the maps including forecasts back several years when you check out forecasts from one month to the other, you'll see what I'm talking about http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 depends on who you ask lol since it comes out with a new forecast every month, it's prone to some major shifts here's a link to the maps including forecasts back several years when you check out forecasts from one month to the other, you'll see what I'm talking about http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Or he could just look at the CFSv2 which changes hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Or he could just look at the CFSv2 which changes hourly.technically, they are 24 hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 technically, they are 24 hour increments. Well, that actually is hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos? Is it time to get excited about winter around here or should we be ready to jump off the cliff now? http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/el-nino-could-be-among-strongest-record-raising-risk-floods-n409376 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Above normal precip. and I'm assuming normal temps. I'll take my chances that I'll get to use my snowblower a couple of times anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos? Is it time to get excited about winter around here or should we be ready to jump off the cliff now? http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/el-nino-could-be-among-strongest-record-raising-risk-floods-n409376 We're due for a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 We're due for a torch. Considering the last 5 (soon to be 6) months have all been above normal, I don't agree with that line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Considering the last 5 (soon to be 6) months have all been above normal, I don't agree with that line of thinking. Depends on where you are. Only May out here was really above. The others have been less than 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Depends on where you are. Only May out here was really above. The others have been less than 1. It's been a torch inside the beltway..I need to get outta here. I'm looking at real estate between Clarksburg and Damascus, and I've come away impressed. Amazing how much cheaper everything is out there. Exceedingly beautiful topography with better weather year-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 It's been a torch inside the beltway..I need to get outta here. I'm looking at real estate between Clarksburg and Damascus, and I've come away impressed. Amazing how much cheaper everything is out there. Exceedingly beautiful topography with better weather year-round. If you want to escape the heat, you should move towards the Bay. Of course, if you do that, winters are non-existent and the lows are 6F warmer than inland. But hey, it'll hit 94F instead of 97F during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 It's probably not so bad at 500' ASL in Tysons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Somewhere near metro in Rockville would be perfect for me. Close enough to get into DC easily, but far enough away to (mostly) not get screwed during the winter. Obviously up near MG or out with Jon would be best for snow, but it's too far out and bad for big heat. I was thinking Rockville too, then I visited a friend out in Damascus and I was hooked. The town is basically situated on a broad ridge at 800-850ft, great views to the West, South, and East. I could see downtown Germantown, Gaithersburg, and Rockville from up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 If you want to escape the heat, you should move towards the Bay. Of course, if you do that, winters are non-existent and the lows are 6F warmer than inland. But hey, it'll hit 94F instead of 97F during the day. Yeah if I'm gonna move to the bay it'll have to be up near your neck of the woods. I think Annapolis is worse than DC in a lot of respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 It's probably not so bad at 500' ASL in Tysons... Eh, as someone who grew up in the area and still lives here: The news crews always have someone reporting from Tysons during snowstorms, usually near a gas station. And it's usually a pretty dismal snow accumulation shot compared to the northwest suburb shot they choose. We do have storms here, of course, where longitude matters much more than latitude, and we have storms where southern suburbs get nailed more than northern. But, still, more cases than not see a combination of further north combined with further west winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 It's a game of tradeoffs. I lived in Germantown from 00-03 and got to experience 02-03 there. It was an incredible winter but the tradeoff was my job was in downtown DC near the Capitol. The commute was awful. Nothing I could have done "forever". Not a chance. So I bought a house in Rockville. But I ended up working in Mt Airy from 2004-10. Not only did I love the easy commute (no traffic ever) but I loved the weather in comparison to Rockville. 35 miles can make a huge difference. From leaves to snow to summer highs...it's a different world. Now I work from home. If my kids weren't entrenched in the schools I would move to the general Mt airy area. But if my job was inside the Beltway I would never consider moving anywhere that requires sitting in gridlock for an hour+ every day. One nasty truth about daily traffic is there are no refunds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Somewhere near metro in Rockville would be perfect for me. Close enough to get into DC easily, but far enough away to (mostly) not get screwed during the winter. Obviously up near MG or out with Jon would be best for snow, but it's too far out and bad for big heat. Jon from Davis WV? Bit of a difference between there and northern Baltimore County for snowfall...like 160" vs. 30" annual avg. I was out in Canaan Valley last month. I really liked it. Love to find a "modest" place out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 What in the hell is traffic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 It's been a torch inside the beltway..I need to get outta here. I'm looking at real estate between Clarksburg and Damascus, and I've come away impressed. Amazing how much cheaper everything is out there. Exceedingly beautiful topography with better weather year-round. Our elevation data from the recent survey shows Montgomery County's highest elevation is ~880 ft. ASL in Cedar Grove, about 1 mile southwest of Damascus. The difference between upcounty and downcounty snowfall is incredible in the late fall and early spring. During the pre-Thanksgiving snow last year, Damascus was just cracking warning-criteria snowfall while downcounty was just white rain.We're really happy LWX sub-divided the county into two separate zones because of the stark elevation contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Jon from Davis WV? Bit of a difference between there and northern Baltimore County for snowfall...like 160" vs. 30" annual avg. I was out in Canaan Valley last month. I really liked it. Love to find a "modest" place out there. You can find a modest place in Canaan Valley. What you can't find is a modest HOA. Some of the monthly fees are unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 What in the hell is traffic? One car turning at Sirianni's keeping two cars from moving on toward the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 You can find a modest place in Canaan Valley. What you can't find is a modest HOA. Some of the monthly fees are unbelievable. I can imagine. I would be fine with a secluded little shack with a wood stove and a nice view. With a moderate to strong Nino they may hit 300" out there, while here on the coastal plain, lots and lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 I can imagine. I would be fine with a secluded little shack with a wood stove and a nice view. With a moderate to strong Nino they may hit 300" out there, while here on the coastal plain, lots and lots of rain. I tried forever. There's very little that isn't tied up in one of the developments. There's one out there that have a monthly HOA of $330. I finally bought some land on the lake at Mt. Storm, about 15 miles from Davis. 3400 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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