Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[gymengineer]

 

 

Thanks, I realize that no one is using concrete surfaces for snow measurements.  However, if 80% of the surface area is made from that material, then that likely leaves a lot of exposed area.  According to the cocorahs manual wxdude linked, anything less than 50% ground coverage is reported only as a trace. Call me crazy if I think the process people use to estimate % coverage might be prone to bias and/or errors.  I mean it's not like the actual depth measurements (something that should be easily quantified) of new snow are not constantly called into question around here. 

 

 

Again, there aren't climate reporting stations situated on a sidewalk in front of a 20-story condo building in the urban core trying to keep snow records. If they are reporting/keeping snowfall records, clearly there are going areas of unpaved surfaces (e.g. a backyard) around them, and yes, there are still plenty of lawns/grassy areas even in DC proper. The half-ground coverage guideline is referring to the snow on the grass if you look at the pictures. It's not including the bare neighborhood streets into the percentage. So likewise, someone keeping snow records in a somewhat more urbanized environment is not going to be including the paved surfaces in their judgment of coverage. 

[Ji]

hello men

[wxdude64]

Thanks, I realize that no one is using concrete surfaces for snow measurements.  However, if 80% of the surface area is made from that material, then that likely leaves a lot of exposed area.  According to the cocorahs manual wxdude linked, anything less than 50% ground coverage is reported only as a trace. Call me crazy if I think the process people use to estimate % coverage might be prone to bias and/or errors.  I mean it's not like the actual depth measurements (something that should be easily quantified) of new snow are not constantly called into question around here. 

 

I'm not trying to diminish anyone's experience, I simply cast doubt on the process that one attempts to quantify "snow cover."  Does a "T" count as a snow cover day?  My personal experience can't possibly be too different than most, seeing that we share similar latitude and climate.  

 

 

 

Great info.  This explains the process nicely.  You're obviously very thorough. It still seems prone to bias to me, however.  Imagine, if you will, that the ground is 40% covered (in the shade) with 6 inches of snow, and 60% of the ground is bare (in the sun... and/or concrete/pavement).  Officially this is a "trace".  Now, if you deem that the ground is 51% covered, then this snow cover measurement is suddenly 3".  I hope this illustrates the point that I'm trying to make.  I realize the sticklers for detail, like yourself, will report the range of measurements with the "trace", but - again - does a "T" count as a snow-cover day?  That's not rhetorical, I really don't know the answer to that question.

I may be wrong, but doesn't NWS have a one inch rule for snowcover somewhere out there? 

[Ger]

I think we will have a big one this winter. I can feel it in my bones

[Bob Chill]

Ji is waking up from hibernation. It's getting real now. Eight weeks till first freeze contest

[WxUSAF]

 Eight weeks till first freeze contest

[famartin]

Paved surfaces are not included when it comes to snow cover.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Paved surfaces are not included when it comes to snow cover.

 

Thanks for clarifying that (and gymengineer).  Do you know if a "trace" counts as snow-cover?

[famartin]

Thanks for clarifying that (and gymengineer). Do you know if a "trace" counts as snow-cover?

No, it doesn't.

[EastCoast NPZ]

 

No, it doesn't.

 

TY.

[Huffwx]

Well, the snow cover was mostly in areas out of direct sun light, but that stretch last year was impressive.

 

 

Now, that is the best argument I've ever heard for a back-loaded winter.

 

 

We had a 9 spot down here for PD JR.. and even some sleet at the end. 1.1 l/e for 9 inches.  We also added some freezing rain that weekend and had a nice snow pack. But, we are 140 due south. 

[mitchnick]

Some good stuff over in the nyc and ne forums.

[mattie g]

Some good stuff over in the nyc and ne forums.

Mitch...you should know better than to apply any positivity regarding winter from up there to us down here.

[mitchnick]

Mitch...you should know better than to apply any positivity regarding winter from up there to us down here.

Not this time. They are discussing new euro seasonal run and jb.

[stadiumwave]

Finally NMME page updated:


DJF Temp Anomalies


Here was last months update:




Here's the updated SST's:


Here's last months update:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml

[eurojosh]

I'm probably mis-remembering, but it seems like there are a lot of brown leaves falling from trees for the second week of August... My deck is already covered...Anyone else seeing this, or is it a figment of my imagination?

[famartin]

I'm seeing it. It's been dry so not too surprising. What kind of tree? (If not sure, post a leaf picture, I can try to identify)

[eurojosh]

I'm seeing it. It's been dry so not too surprising. What kind of tree? (If not sure, post a leaf picture, I can try to identify)

 

Maples, mostly.

 

Maybe it's been dry, but if I start seeing fuzzy caterpillars this month as well, it's game on....  

[famartin]

It's been cool but not that cool. The leaf drop is likely a dry response.

[Bob Chill]

Some Tulip poplars around here are yellowing in some spots and dropping some leaves. Pretty typical for dry late summers.

[snowfan]

Maples, mostly.

 

Maybe it's been dry, but if I start seeing fuzzy caterpillars this month as well, it's game on....  

I've already seen a handful of all black wooly bears imby. Started a few weeks ago.

[nw baltimore wx]

It's been cool but not that cool. The leaf drop is likely a dry response.

Sycamores are also well-known for their early leaf drop.

[soadforecaster]

Finally NMME page updated:

DJF Temp Anomalies

Here was last months update:

Here's the updated SST's:

Here's last months update:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml

 

 

based off these maps, seems like the  idea is the stronger basin wide el nino the cooler the temps will be for us, guess I know what ill be wishing for.

[mitchnick]

It's been cool but not that cool. The leaf drop is likely a dry response.

 

 

Some Tulip poplars around here are yellowing in some spots and dropping some leaves. Pretty typical for dry late summers.

all the strong NINOs had dry late summers/early falls (at least at BWI)

things should break come October

[mattie g]

all the strong NINOs had dry late summers/early falls (at least at BWI)

things should break come October

 

Dry falls are really nice.  I'd love to get through October without too many gullywashers.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Dry falls are really nice.  I'd love to get through October without too many gullywashers

 

+1.  

[mitchnick]

Dry falls are really nice.  I'd love to get through October without too many gullywashers.

yep, anything not to have to mow the grass is fine by me

[Eskimo Joe]

I wonder how many El Nino's have had a wet October, or at least a gully washer?

[Bob Chill]

I wonder how many El Nino's have had a wet October, or at least a gully washer?

 

I did a quick look back and Octs are actually more likely to be drier than normal with mod-strong enso. 2002 was the only notable Oct with AN precip and a daily record @ DCA (10/16 1.38). 

 

Here's the composite for all mods-strong. 

 

 

 

 

November appears to be when typical Nino precip patterns kick in

 

[mitchnick]

I did a quick look back and Octs are actually more likely to be drier than normal with mod-strong enso. 2002 was the only notable Oct with AN precip and a daily record @ DCA (10/16 1.38). 

 

Here's the composite for all mods-strong. 

 

 

mod-strong nino Oct.JPG

 

 

November appears to be when typical Nino precip patterns kick in

 

mod-strong nino Nov.JPG

Strange that DCA was so low. BWI's Octobers in 1972, 1997, 2002, & 2009 respectively were 3.51", 3.43", 6.01" & 6.24". Average for the month is 3.33". 10/82 was 2.31", not that unusually low.