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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

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Haha, you're right.  It was started in January by.........well.............we all know that one.

 

I found this gem

 

 

Pretty sure a niño following a multi year Nina is the absolute worst possible scenario for DC....final call for DC

Dec +6
Jan +5
Feb +1

Snow T

 

 

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Someone started a spring/summer thread in December, and a winter thread was started last year around the same time...

The warmistas are nicer too.. we won't complain like weirdos about this thread for the first few pages. ;) 

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I bet we get a -NAO, but either we have a hostile pacific or just get Unlucky. When have we had 3 consecutive + Climo winters? Just an out of the Blue guess but I think the Midwest will be the snow capital next year and the Pacific will do slightly better. 2004-2005? ETA: Though with a El Niño that would support greater chances for a +PNA, but we won't find out if it's 2009-2010/2002-2003 like, 1997-1998/2005-2006 like, or middle of the road 2004-2005 like.

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Here goes:

 

Mild to moderate El nino until a slight slump towards neutral during August, September and October.  Remaining mild El nino into winter.  The slight droop will not give neutral status (ENSO), it will remain  at least mild El nino.

 

Winter:  in the Mid-Atlantic expect equal chances of mean average snow and temperatures.  The initial half of the winter will be slightly warmer than mean  and the second half will be close to mean.

 

Regarding precipitation, expect mean monthly precipitation until the back half of the winter when precipitation will fall slightly below mean. 

 

Snow:  Generally 85% to 90% of climo.

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I bet we get a -NAO, but either we have a hostile pacific or just get Unlucky. When have we had 3 consecutive + Climo winters? Just an out of the Blue guess but I think the Midwest will be the snow capital next year and the Pacific will do slightly better. 2004-2005? ETA: Though with a El Niño that would support greater chances for a +PNA, but we won't find out if it's 2009-2010/2002-2003 like, 1997-1998/2005-2006 like, or middle of the road 2004-2005 like.

We used to have three consecutive above normal snow seasons about once a decade. Mid-1980's, late 70's, mid 60's, late 50's, mid 40's, early '30's, mid 20's. It almost happened in the mid-90s but for the anomalous ice year and a couple of under performers the next year. It's just been the past 20 years that the feast or famine pattern has shown up.

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It's just my hunch but I think the feast and famine pattern may finally be breaking.

DC hasn't had back to back above normal winters since the late 80s, as far as I know, until the past two. If next winter is a moderate Nino then we have better than normal chances of another good one, statistically speaking.

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