Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

Last couple of HRRR runs are doing HRRR things out on the dryline this afternoon.

[Calderon]

Yeah, the cap isn't as strong today as it will be overnight/early tomorrow. If anything can pop, large hail will be the primary threat.

[NTXYankee]

Last couple of HRRR runs are doing HRRR things out on the dryline this afternoon.

 

Oh HRRR, so hard to trust you right now.

[Quixotic1]

Looking for a high risk before all is said and done. Maybe not here but in OK or KS.

 

Bump.  Not there yet, but I think I still have a shot.  Moderate down to the Red River.  

[NTXYankee]

Bump.  Not there yet, but I think I still have a shot.  Moderate down to the Red River.  

 

I have this feeling we'll be the sleeper area still, meaning a bit of surprises.  They did mention an extension possible into NTX once it becomes clearer.

[weatherextreme]

 

THE MODERATE RISK WAS EXTENDED SWD TO THE RED RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST OVERLAP IN ANTICIPATED
STORM COVERAGE...INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
AROUND 00Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. SOME ADDITIONAL SWD
EXTENSION INTO TX MAY BE NEEDED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

[NTXYankee]

Well it's humid, worse than last time I think.

[wildwestpb]

OUN locally extended the moderate risk for their CWA that extends into Texas.

Also has it listed in the HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. GIANT HAIL AND DAMAGINGWINDS ARE LIKELY AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGHESTTHREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35. AMODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EASTOF CHEROKEE...WEATHERFORD...LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS.

[bubba hotep]

SPC on Texas threat for this afternoon, they are favoring the area sw of DFW down towards the Hill Country.

...CNTRL TX...

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CU ACROSS

THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S...ERODING CINH ALONG

THE DRYLINE. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NEBULOUS BUT

MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED

CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ENVIRONMENT HERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT

SHEAR...RESULTING IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE THREAT IS HIGH

ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LOW TORN/WIND/HAIL PROBS AND A CATEGORICAL

MARGINAL RISK OVER THE REGION.

[weatherextreme]

Cape just west of DFW is pretty impressive.

 

 

 

[Chinook]

looks like every spotter in San Antonio metro reported hail of some size tonight (0.50" to 2.50")

[bubba hotep]

There she blows!

 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

It looks like there were a few failed attempts at CI off the dryline out sw of DFW. 00:15 image looks like maybe one last tower trying to go in that area?

[bubba hotep]

Couple of pesky cells still growing this evening as they move north, obviously any overnight convection that leaves behind mesoscale features that could locally enhance the risk tomorrow. 

 

 

[NTXYankee]

So I generated a sounding on the COD website for the nam at 03z and hazard type for DFW "PDS Tornado"

[bubba hotep]

So I generated a sounding on the COD website for the nam at 03z and hazard type for DFW "PDS Tornado"

It might be contaminated? It wouldn't be surprising to see some tornado reports with any early cells before things line out.

[Quixotic1]

It might be contaminated? It wouldn't be surprising to see some tornado reports with any early cells before things line out.

I saw the same thing. It's 03z Wednesday (4k NAM). Which is what, 9 pm Tuesday?

You can tell I've been working on my sounding skills. Haha.

[jojo762]

I saw the same thing. It's 03z Wednesday (4k NAM). Which is what, 9 pm Tuesday?

You can tell I've been working on my sounding skills. Haha.

03Z is 10pm tuesday. The best tornado threat for tuesday may dang well end up in NC/N TX with the way things are looking--conditional on a few things-- up north. 

[Quixotic1]

03Z is 10pm tuesday. The best tornado threat for tuesday may dang well end up in NC/N TX with the way things are looking--conditional on a few things-- up north.

I'll take the TOR and you can have the HAIL. I've had enough for a couple of years. The PDS or "particularly dangerous storm" piqued my interest.

[bubba hotep]

New D3:

 

[NTXYankee]

New D3:

 

Looks like tomorrow and Sunday are the only nice days, probably most of Thursday too. Well we will find out soon enough today what Mother Nature will dish out here.

[bubba hotep]

Gravity waves out towards Abilene moving east? Maybe a focus for some earlier storms?

[jhamps10]

So, one way to know this is a big weather day, they just had Finfrock on nbc 5 this morning from his home.. Course the city had to surprise him with it being David Finfrock day lol..

[NTXYankee]

So, one way to know this is a big weather day, they just had Finfrock on nbc 5 this morning from his home.. Course the city had to surprise him with it being David Finfrock day lol..

Not being from the area, who is that?

[bubba hotep]

Not being from the area, who is that?

I was thinking the same

[bubba hotep]

Nearly full sun here this morning. I can't remember the last threat day that wasn't packed in with clouds in the am. Also, 12z FWD sounding shows a decent cap in place.

[NTXYankee]

SPC update includes metroplex in the 10% hatched tornado.

[Calderon]

Not being from the area, who is that?

He's their chief met, this week marks his 40th anniversary with KXAS. He's probably retiring soon, so that's why they were able to poach Rick Mitchell from KOCO in OKC a few years back.

[radarman]

Closest thing to Gary England in N Texas....

[bubba hotep]