Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Jebman]

So far in Buda, only light rain. Main line is well to west. Only a Third of an inch of rain so far.

For those of you hoping for less rain, that may well occur.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

[bubba hotep]

18z 4k NAM spits out 21" max west of Austin

[1900hurricane]

It wouldn't be a big weather event without KGRK going down.

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[bubba hotep]

[jm1220]

A few rain gauges just west of here already have 3-4".

[Jebman]

A few rain gauges just west of here already have 3-4".

If the bulk of the heavy rain stays west of AUS and I 35, would it spare the mainstem rivers?

 

Drizzle has become occasional, with only cloudy skies. NWS might want to consider moving those flood watches well west of I 35.

[jm1220]

If the bulk of the heavy rain stays west of AUS and I 35, would it spare the mainstem rivers?

No, the heaviest rain west of town is actually worse news for the rivers. Wimberley and San Marcos flooded on Memorial Day from a foot of rain that fell in Blanco County which flowed downhill from there. If Lake Travis gets nailed by heavy rain as well, the LCRA might have to open floodgates which would cause flooding downriver on the Colorado. 

[bubba hotep]

In the short term, HRRR seems to be failing in Central and South Texas. It looks like things are pushing north out of the Austin area, maybe associated with an outflow, and the other old outflow is still pushing west into the Hill Country with storms firing along it.

 

The latest from WPC for N. Texas and Oklahoma:

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0124
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
631 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TEXAS INTO S-CNTRL OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 172230Z - 180300Z

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN
TEXAS INTO SRN OKLAHOMA MAY POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...FALLING
OVER AN AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED
BASIS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS OUR THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NWRN TEXAS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA RECEIVED 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING FLASH FOOD GUIDANCE TO 1-2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS SWRN
OKLAHOMA. OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW 22Z TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FEW POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY TO RISE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AT LEAST FOR A
BRIEF TIME BEFORE SUNSET.

GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE NNE AT 25-30
KTS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TRAINING OF CELLS FROM SW TO NE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS HIGHER
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET CORE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDED UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH
ALREADY PRESENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE. GIVEN THE POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...RAINFALL RATES EXCEED 1
IN/HR...AND 3 HR FFG VALUES OF 1-2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO CNTRL OKLAHOMA AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS
VIA SHORT TERM RAP FORECASTS.

OTTO

 

ETA: WPC Disc for Central and S. Texas that was issued while trying to post this and trying to get the savages... err kids to do some homework.

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0125
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 172345Z - 180545Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL TEXAS WITH HOURLY RATES OF 2+ IN/HR THROUGH
05Z. ALSO WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF
FLASH FLOODING RAIN ALONG THE CNTRL TEXAS COAST BY 03Z.

DISCUSSION...23Z OBSERVATIONS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL TEXAS...SW TO NE...FROM NEAR HDO TO AUS TO
JDD. A WWD SURGING OUTFLOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS
OBSERVED TO INTERSECT THE NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST
WEST OF HDO. LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING RAINFALL OVER
WILLIAMSON...BELL...FALLS AND MILAM COUNTIES. 850 MB VAD WIND
PLOTS SHOWED 30-40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND GPS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WERE BETWEEN 1.6 - 1.8 INCHES ACROSS A BROAD SWATCH
OF CNTRL-ERN TEXAS. WHILE INSTABILITY HAS LIKELY WANED SOMEWHAT
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
COOL...ANYWHERE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ML CAPE REMAINS ALONG I-10
BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON.

RAP/GFS FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL WIND/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE CNTRL TEXAS COAST INTO
AND OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL TEXAS.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONTINUED TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF I-35 IN CNTRL TEXAS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE 22Z HRRR HAS INTRODUCED AN AXIS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WHICH MAY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES...BETWEEN GALVESTON
AND MATAGORDA BAY...AS A ZONE OF GREATER LOW LEVEL FLOW/TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERRUNS RELATIVELY COOLER AIR LOCATED IN THE
W-CNTRL GULF AT THE BASE OF SURFACE RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IN FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL TEXAS.

OTTO

[1900hurricane]

The red hatched area in the MPD would be bad news for the Brazos River Basin. Lots of tributary convergence in that area and just downstream.

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[Jebman]

Most of the heavier rain is north of AUS, more toward Waco. This pattern is persisting. If it continues this way, The places getting heavy rain will likely exceed 12 inches overnight. Meanwhile, Buda continues with sporadic drizzle and occasional light to moderate rain. That would be some BRIEF moderate rain once in a very long long long while. NWS needs to change some of these crazy forecast amounts for N Hays County - aint gonna happen. Buda will NOT get 3-6 inches. They MIGHT eke out a couple inches. I'm sure tomorrow afternoon/night will turn out mostly dry to drizzly here.

 

No way we break 2 inches. Not with this system.

 

I was so excited, now I'm pretty damn depressed lmao.

Missed out again damn.

[bubba hotep]

Crazy, run after run of huge totals in the Austin area and then it folds with an inch or two. It makes up for it by adding that 27" blob where it was dry at 18z. 

 

[jhamps10]

Most of the heavier rain is north of AUS, more toward Waco. This pattern is persisting. If it continues this way, The places getting heavy rain will likely exceed 12 inches overnight. Meanwhile, Buda continues with sporadic drizzle and occasional light to moderate rain. That would be some BRIEF moderate rain once in a very long long long while. NWS needs to change some of these crazy forecast amounts for N Hays County - aint gonna happen. Buda will NOT get 3-6 inches. They MIGHT eke out a couple inches. I'm sure tomorrow afternoon/night will turn out mostly dry to drizzly here.

No way we break 2 inches. Not with this system.

I was so excited, now I'm pretty damn depressed lmao.

Missed out again damn.

You seriously need help if you were excited about the threat of major flooding rains...

[jm1220]

LOL at calling this a "bust". There are already places a few miles west of here with over 4" of rain, and this is expected to go through tomorrow night. I also can't understand how anyone could root for flooding rain around here after what happened in 2015. 

[Jebman]

You seriously need help if you were excited about the threat of major flooding rains...

I did not want floods.

 

I took the 3-6 inch forecast and expected 3-4.

We wont get floods in Austin or Buda. The models were wrong about our area. The places that have been getting heavy ran all afternoon are the probable bullseye. Buda and Austin are not. Buda will be fortunate to total 2 inches by Tuesday afternoon, if even that much. I have half an inch in Buda with sporadic drizzle. Radar trends are drying Buda out and keeping the rain where it has been all afternoon.

 

Regardless of what I want, the weather will do whatever it is going to do. If you live near a river or creak, you better have insurance and know the risks you are taking by living near a creek or river here in South Central Texas. We get flash floods here. If you can't handle it - please do NOT choose to live near a creek or river that has the potential to flood in a heavy rain situation.

 

 

I wanted heavy rain BAD. I wanted 3-6 inches. I can want it all I want. I can pray for it til I am blue in the face. I dont control the weather. I am still not going to get 3-6 inches with this storm, and I will cry in my proverbial soup all night and all day long tomorrow, and it still wont change the fact that I am south of most of the forcing, and that I must learn to be content with only a half inch or so of the rain while others get to feast on foot-plus amounts tonight and tomorrow.

[jm1220]

Flood warning for Onion Creek in SE Austin, and the Blanco River in Wimberley and San Marcos. 

[bubba hotep]

Go HRRR! This has really been an embarrassing day for this model

 

[1900hurricane]

There's definitely an outflow boundary in central Texas, as marked by the drop in temps from the 70s down to the mid 60s. I think there is a pretty good chance this could focus more convection tonight.

 

[bubba hotep]

The wind has been kicking here this evening! 

[Jebman]

Storms are developing well east of I 35, but should not encroach on Buda. We might see a few showers overnight.

I however DO understand the watches and warnings. Hopefully this is all MUCH LESS rain than progged. We don't need floods to verify.

[Chinook]

Radar estimates show 0.50" to 5.15" near Austin - a huge gradient of rainfall!!

[Jebman]

Radar estimates show 0.50" to 5.15" near Austin - a huge gradient of rainfall!!

Its an appreciable gradient.

 

Tomorrow I have got a ton of last minute things to do before I leave for IAD Tuesday. I'll probably end up being glad that Buda will only accrue 1 inch of rain total from this. Stay very, very safe everyone in the heavy rain-affected areas.

[bubba hotep]

A complex setup counties across Texas giving the models fits. Would think that the bow surging east towards Tyler and the training convection down towards Houston would work to shut things down across DFW (potential subsidence in wake of departing storms and moisture return cutoff by southern storms). WPC touches on this but points to some reasons why N. Texas might also see some heavy rain overnight:

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0126
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENT TEXAS...S OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 180300Z - 180800Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TRAINING IN THE SHORT TERM TO PROLONG FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS...LONGER TERM THREAT INCREASING EASTWARD ALONG
RED RIVER AS COMPLEX SHIFTS

DISCUSSION...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SETUP IDEAL FOR INCREASED UVV
MAINTAINING MODEST CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED. WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS W OK WITH
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX LIFTING NORTH AS WELL PROVIDING STRONG RIGHT
ENTRANCE ASCENT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW EASTWARD. THIS IS
ALIGNED WITH SSW-NNE FRONTAL ZONE THAT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SOME
MODEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO CONVECT AND
TAP LIMITED 500 J/KG INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER CORES THAT ARE
A BIT MORE FRACTURED WITH RATES IN THE .75-1.25"/HR RANGE. MCS
COMPLEX ACROSS E TX SEEMS TO BE OBSTRUCTING MUCH OF THE BEST
FLOW...BUT A CHANNEL WEST OF THE COMPLEX OVER THE HILL COUNTY IS
CLEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT THAT GIVEN STEERING
FLOW IS LIKELY TO REPEAT ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WITH FFG VALUES IN THE SUB 1.5" RANGE EVEN AT LONGER
3-6HR DURATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED.

TOWARD 06Z...A NEW SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BIG BEND OF TX
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE GENERAL LARGER SCALE ASCENT...RAP
FORECASTS ARE FOR LOWER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A WEAK CYCLONIC
ZONE TO FORM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN POOL ALONG THE
FRONT WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITIES ADVECTING IN TO SUPPORT AND
INCREASED MST TRANSPORT WITH TPWS UP TO 1.75" DUE TO SOME OF THE
MOISTENING OF THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS N CENTRAL
TX...WITH DECENT FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD DFW METRO AND S CENTRAL/SE OK BY 07-08Z.
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER HERE...THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS POTENTIAL POSES A FLASH FLOOD THREAT HERE
AS WELL. MCS COMPLEX TO THE EAST DOES REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
EXACT EVOLUTION IS CONTINGENT ON FORCING CONVECTING ON THE SW SIDE
OF THE MCS OVER E TX.

GALLINA

[1900hurricane]

The 00Z 4km NAM seems to be verifying well enough in the short term. It has some totals exceeding 10" overnight (by 12Z) about where the heaviest rainfall is currently occurring.

 

[1900hurricane]

From WPC:

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0127
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 180349Z - 180949Z

SUMMARY...MCV/COLD POOL WITHIN WARM SECTOR TO ESTABLISH REINFORCED
BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME TOTALS AND LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE EXISTS
ACROSS E TX TO MAINTAIN MCS COMPLEX WITH WELL DEFINED MCV LIFTING
INTO NE TEXAS...WITH A CONVECTIVE QLCS WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RATES
UP TO 2.0"/HR AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO HIGHER GUIDANCE... THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE INCREASINGLY OBSTRUCTED BY THE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF IT ACROSS NEAR/NW OF THE HOUSTON METRO ATTM.

IN THE LOW LEVELS THE BROAD 40-45KT SELY LLJ HAD BEEN TRANSPORTING
HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE LARGER COMPLEX TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH DUE TO
LATENT HEAT RELEASE DEVELOPED A DECENT MCV AND COLD POOL...THIS
MCV LIFTING NORTH WITH ATTENDANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
ESTABLISHED A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM COLORADO TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY
WHICH DUE TO ORIENTATION WITH THE MCV TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO REINFORCE THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACT AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY CONVECTIVE INITIATION POINT FOR DEEP MST FLUX WITH TPWS
TO 1.75-2.0" AND SBCAPES MAINTAINED FROM THE GULF IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE WITHIN A ENVIRONMENT FOR WARM CLOUD HVY RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3"/HR WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4"/HR
OR HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT...EXTREME TOTALS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ARE
LIKELY.

THE SIGNAL FOR 6HR TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 7" HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITHIN LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS...JUST NOT
SURE IN EXACT LOCATION. RECENT HI-RES CAMS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
ESRL EXP. HURR OVER 9" BY 10Z...THOUGH GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THIS IS
A FEW COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF CURRENT SETUP.


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31849591 31849495 30849445 29709479 28949631
29569742 30489749 31149667 

[Chinook]

radar estimated storm totals in the Dallas-Fort Worth region, 36 hrs (roughly 11AM Saturday to 11PM Sunday, CDT). red=3", magenta= 5", white=7"

 

[bubba hotep]

radar estimated storm totals in the Dallas-Fort Worth region, 36 hrs (roughly 11AM Saturday to 11PM Sunday, CDT). red=3", magenta= 5", white=7"

 

 

Totals have been lower in my area but it has been interesting to watch today. I've had on and off rain all day while that area to my west between 75 and I35 has been pretty dry. Also, starting to see convection fire and fill in down between Brownwood and Waco but still think the show down NW of Houston robs DFW of the best moisture overnight. 

[Chinook]

KHGX radar estimates up to 4.4" of rain per hour north of Katy TX. And all that just from 50dBz radar reflectivity.

[jm1220]

Barton Creek also under a flood warning-doesn't look too serious but it originates from the area west of downtown that received 4"+ this afternoon. 

 

It's been either a deluge or nothing around here. The airport doesn't even have 0.25" yet east of I-35. 

[Roy]

Good rains here in north Fort Worth, but more "paltry" at DFW airport and on east. Hopefully will get more tonight if the stuff so the south doesn't stop it.

[Jebman]

Here it is near 1am in Buda Texas, and cloudy, no rain at all for quite a while. NWS needs to at least lower categorical pops to 70 percent overnight and tomorrow. For us, the forecast of rain overnight is a BUST, although I am grateful for NO FLOODS. That ground IS saturated. I'm sure by about 11am, NWS will come around about the pops as we continue to enjoy cloudy skies with little or no rain at all in this part of Central Texas.