Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Roy]

GFS saying nevermind on the flooding rains. Maybe 1-2 inches, but not enough to really break the recent dry spell.

[bubba hotep]

GFS saying nevermind on the flooding rains. Maybe 1-2 inches, but not enough to really break the recent dry spell.

12z Euro is 4 - 6" across the DFW area and the EPS supports the axis of heavier precipitation including DFW. Obviously, multiple rounds of convection makes pinning things down difficult. We got about .05" Saturday morning, then nearly 1.5" on Monday and some more this morning, so MBY is making okay so far after a dry start to the month.

[Roy]

Yeah, where I am has been largely missed, so I am starting to water again. Good to know the Euro is higher but not the insane totals the GFS was showing a few days ago.

[jm1220]

The orientation of the upper low looks like it's going to change-from more N-S oriented, to more of a flat look. That shrinks the area of possible heavy precip, and likely nudges it out quicker. Down here the Euro cut back big time, from 5"+ to maybe not even 2". 

[bubba hotep]

GFS continues to do some funky stuff down in S. Texas. The Euro doesn't seem to want any part of that and has higher precipitation totals in N. Texas and the EPS still supports this solution.

[aggiegeog]

Has about 2/3" of rain overnight from a patch that just would not budge.

[bubba hotep]

But there does appear to be pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS that another system moves towards the SW by D10. Looks like an active stretch for us.

[jm1220]

Euro's increasing the rain again in south Texas. There's a nice bullseye of 7"+ of rain not far NW of here, which would likely force Mansfield Dam on Lake Travis to open floodgates. That hasn't happened in 9 years. One way in which we were fortunate last spring was the Colorado River itself not flooding because of the enormous spare capacity on the lakes. Now they're full. And of course, that kind of rain would flood the creeks that flow through the city.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro still has 4-7" for the DFW area over the next week. In general, lots of rain for the eastern 2/3s of the state. It will be interesting to to watch the trends on the timing and placement of disturbances kicking out and the daily evolution of mesoscale features. Someone looks to get lots of rain.

[bubba hotep]

The latest from FWD:

 

 

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. WITH THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW...A
GRADUAL ENE MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. COMBINED WITH
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AND WAA ACROSS THE AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR MAX VALUES
FOR APRIL OR BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. THOUGH LINEAR BULK SHEAR
WILL BE INCREASING...A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES. LOCALIZED
SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR...BUT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
BECOME MORE OF THE CONCERN. THOUGH IT WON/T RAIN IN ANY ONE AREA
THE ENTIRE TIME...TRAINING OF CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL RANGE OF 3-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 LIKELY WILL
SEE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS DUE TO THE DIFFLUENT NATURE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT.

[jm1220]

GFS went nuts this run along the I-10 corridor, especially from here east to Houston. This could definitely get very bad where we have training for a prolonged period of time. 

[Jebman]

I have been down here in Buda since Mar 8.

 

I hope we get absolutely destroyed down here by severe torrential rain. The ground is saturated. Most of the rain will run off. I miss the floods of October 2015.

 

I love extreme rain events in the non snow part of the year. Floods are the greatest!

[bubba hotep]

I have been down here in Buda since Mar 8.

 

I hope we get absolutely destroyed down here by severe torrential rain. The ground is saturated. Most of the rain will run off. I miss the floods of October 2015.

 

I love extreme rain events in the non snow part of the year. Floods are the greatest!

 

As someone who has flooded before, kindly go F yourself. 

[bubba hotep]

WPC is going with 4 - 7" for DFW

 

[bubba hotep]

Looks like Sunday will be the day to watch for DFW svr wx. Hopefully, wide spread rain helps keep things in check.

[jm1220]

As someone who has flooded before, kindly go F yourself.

Seriously. The Halloween 2015 and Memorial Day 2015 floods were devastating in this area.

[bubba hotep]

Lol, 12z Euro has a 10" bomb over Collin County from WPC

 

ETA: Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook

 

[Roy]

Interesting to watch. Some of the higher model solutions are really going gangbusters.

[cstrunk]

I have been down here in Buda since Mar 8.

 

I hope we get absolutely destroyed down here by severe torrential rain. The ground is saturated. Most of the rain will run off. I miss the floods of October 2015.

 

I love extreme rain events in the non snow part of the year. Floods are the greatest!

 

 

As someone who has flooded before, kindly go F yourself. 

 

 

Seriously. The Halloween 2015 and Memorial Day 2015 floods were devastating in this area.

 

I thought we finally got rid of this guy. I guess not...

[NTXYankee]

I thought we finally got rid of this guy. I guess not...

lol

[bubba hotep]

The pattern continues to look very wet going forward based on pretty much everything - teleconnections, weeklies, ensembles, etc! 2015ing type period coming up? Unfortunately, that also points to multiple chances for svr wx. Looks like a wild spring on tap here in Texas. 

[jm1220]

According to the GFS and even Canadian, our heaviest rain down here might come Monday night, even Tuesday morning. A boundary looks to get hung up in central TX, which fires up continuous rounds of heavy rain, particularly I-10 and north, east all the way to Houston. That's what looks to separate this being a heavy but manageable rain event like the Euro shows from here south (generally 3-4"), from something potentially much more serious if the GFS is right (6", probably more in places). The boundary being stuck in a bad place could potentially be quite serious, given that plus uplift along the Balcones escarpment on SSE winds. That's what contributed in a big way to our late October deluge that dumped over 16" of rain at the airport. That plus Patricia's remnants resulted in 2 feet of rain over 10 days in some parts of Austin. 

[DoctorMu]

The pattern continues to look very wet going forward based on pretty much everything - teleconnections, weeklies, ensembles, etc! 2015ing type period coming up? Unfortunately, that also points to multiple chances for svr wx. Looks like a wild spring on tap here in Texas. 

 

Yeah, after this QPF monster event, there is another system before the beginning of May, although the 18z GFS run has tapped down the enthusiasm on the late April storm.

 

This omega block special may be 2-3 months worth of rain.

 

[jm1220]

One thing I learned about central TX weather-when the rain comes, it comes all at once.

[Quixotic1]

One thing I learned about central TX weather-when the rain comes, it comes all at once.

When my folks moved here (Massachusetts), it was July. They were laughing at the size of the sewer openings and how huge the levees were compared to the stream that is the Trinity. When the autumn storms moved in they were stunned how they got three months of rain in 2 hours.

[Quixotic1]

Load up now. La Niña is coming.

[1900hurricane]

The 00Z GFS remains very similar to the 18Z with regards to off-the-rocker rainfall placement and quantity.

[jm1220]

The 00Z GFS remains very similar to the 18Z with regards to off-the-rocker rainfall placement and quantity.

The Mon PM/Tues AM boundary looks to be the make or break for an extreme vs. heavy but manageable rain event here. GFS has been insistent on it for the last 4-5 runs, Euro hasn't bitten yet. The Euro's 3-4" of rain shouldn't cause many problems, the GFS well over 6" in spots would. 

[bubba hotep]

Load up now. La Niña is coming.

It's going to be interesting to see how this unfolds. We could stay pretty wet if the +PDO/ -AMO can take hold. Also, much like El Nino, there isn't really a standard La Nina with temps and precipitation being all over the place when you break out the individual years, esp during winter.

[bubba hotep]

It's going to rain

ETA: 06z GFS has nearly a foot of rain at DFW over the next two weeks