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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

Apologize for my dumbness here, but EML is basically a secondary cap of warm air aloft correct??

Yes. May also denote steep lapse rates above, which are clearly visible on that sounding.

Round one is going to be cap cannon fodder I'd guess, but hopefully can make a dent in the CINH for later on.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Yes. May also denote steep lapse rates above, which are clearly visible on that sounding.

Round one is going to be cap cannon fodder I'd guess, but hopefully can make a dent in the CINH for later on.

 

Also, very steep lapse rates downstream of DFW. There is a deep moist boundary layer in place giving that sounding an explosive look. However, the 4k NAM looks like a nonevent for DFW and the HRRR is only firing some isolated cells off the dryline but looks to have them weakening pretty quickly as they head into DFW. The 00z Euro looks to be the most aggressive solution with plenty of CAPE in place and two distinct heavy precipitation streaks across DFW - one along I20 and on through the northern burbs.  

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Not too concerned at this point, looking at visible it appears some breaks are starting to develop behind this initial activity moving through.  Models show activity developing, where that occurs is anyone's guess, but dryline looks to be fairly active this afternoon.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

We had a brief downpour here as the fist wave appears to be on the uptick as it moves east. The HRRR continues to fire storms pretty early on in the afternoon to the west of DFW. That early initiation might get the storms to DFW before things really have a chance to destabilize, depends on how much and how fast we get clearing. 

 

Updated graphic from FWD:

 

CezqfDIWwAE9mqW.jpg

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Update from FWD:

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REGARDING POP
CONFIGURATION AND GENERAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING. AN
AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 THIS MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE SENDING
UP AN 18Z SOUNDING BUT AN INITIAL LOOK AT AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING
FROM DALLAS ABOUT 45 MINUTES AGO REVEALS THAT THE STRONG CAPPING
NOTED ON THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS BEEN LIFTED. THERE WAS A
NOTICEABLE AREA OF COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 800-600MB IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING ASCENT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX EAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE STILL
THINK ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT
WITH A GENERAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION WELL EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE RATES
ARE VERY STEEP. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

DUNN
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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

 

WE WILL BE SENDING UP AN 18Z SOUNDING BUT AN INITIAL LOOK AT AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DALLAS ABOUT 45 MINUTES AGO REVEALS THAT THE STRONG CAPPING NOTED ON THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS BEEN LIFTED.

 

Yup, was just about to post this part.  That was quick.  The elevated convection seems to have done its job, setting us up for later on.  Now to get some clearing....

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I've never really been very high on today's setup. If I was, I'd probably be out and preparing to chase right now.

 

With that said, some amazing storms are probably going to blow up over north Texas just to spite me. :P

 

I hope the weather isn't that petty! The sun is starting to break through here but I'm not the only one pulling for a bust. The Insurance Council of Texas is reporting over a billion dollars in losses from the last two events in DFW. 

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

I hope the weather isn't that petty! The sun is starting to break through here but I'm not the only one pulling for a bust. The Insurance Council of Texas is reporting over a billion dollars in losses from the last two events in DFW.

Yeah.. Insurance agents everywhere probably won't be hounding Collin county for a while after the last hail storm... (As a former agent salesman I know that Collin county had some of the cheapest rates around)

Meanwhile from my perch on the 33rd floor I can see some clearing trying to form here in Cowtown, but nothing successful as of yet.. Keeping an eye to the sky here from my office

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Yup, was just about to post this part.  That was quick.  The elevated convection seems to have done its job, setting us up for later on.  Now to get some clearing....

 

Visible sat seems to indicate pretty rapid clearing across N. Texas and the hi-res models seem to be really struggling with convective trends so far today. SPC kept DFW in the 5% TOR and 30% hail with the latest update, so it will be interesting to see what the 18z sounding shows. 

 

Cez2ckdWEAEQBYy.jpg

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

Cap is holding strong but will it hold all afternoon?

 

Ce0AnE1W8AE9c4Q.jpg

 

This is somewhat less of a surprise than the note in the AFD update was.  That was one heck of a warm layer earlier that was not likely to have been easily scoured out.    It could be a fine line between a cap bust versus the provision of just enough CIN to keep anything that forms nice and discrete.... Should that occur there could be swath of really enormous hail and with decent helicity down low a fair chance of a tornado, despite the mild veering aloft.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

That statement was based on aircraft data.

It looks like a watch is coming shortly for DFW. The clearing has ended in my area and we've had some passing rain showers the past 30 min.

 

Watch was just issued... probs are very low for tornadoes/wind, decent for hail.

WWUS40 KWNS 301905WWP9SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0059NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0204 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016WS 0059PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  10%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         : <02%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  30%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  60%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  40%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  90%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 2.5MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26030PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO&&FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH ANDWATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9.$$
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