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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Wow. Hail is the worst.  So glad we whiffed.    

 

Yea, we have been lucky with hail since moving here and even last night we got lucky. Based on the wife's FB feed (I don't do FB but am on Twitter) it looks like areas just north and northwest of us got bigger hail and suffered a lot of window and house damage. Pretty much anything outside of the house like pots, flood lights, plants, etc got destroyed but the windows are all still intact. 

 

That was one of the craziest things I've ever experienced for sure. The roar of the storm approaching was unreal, it was actually muffling out the thunder. Then it sounded like our house was going to explode when the storm finally hit! It looked like that hail core was staying just ahead of the outflow boundary and areas south of us were behind the boundary when the storm passed through and didn't have the extreme hail. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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Did you really get 10" of hail?  If so, that's the most I've ever seen.  Seen the big stuff (grapefruit) but nothing like that in terms of depth.  It's probably not a record but it might be a local one.  

 

ETA:  Wait until you have guests and storms like that arrive.  My Aunt in Ireland refused to leave the country after she experienced baseball sized hail and 70 mph winds.  

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Did you really get 10" of hail? If so, that's the most I've ever seen. Seen the big stuff (grapefruit) but nothing like that in terms of depth. It's probably not a record but it might be a local one.

ETA: Wait until you have guests and storms like that arrive. My Aunt in Ireland refused to leave the country after she experienced baseball sized hail and 70 mph winds.

No, I posted that to Twitter with a note "hail drifts" but the hail drifts part didn't get posted on here. I would say 2.5 - 3" in the yard. Then the deeper areas were up against the house and along the roof line. More hail than I've ever seen!

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

I am so glad to have a garage now after living without one the first 7 years of marriage...I don't get how half our block uses their garage for storage instead of cars. Makes no sense to me, as not only does it invite hail damage, but it leaves the cars open to theft and having to wipe off frost/ice etc. in winter. It's like taking off the front door to your house. Then again, even with a garage, my wife left for work the other day with the big Fort Worth hailstorm and before I could tell her to literally stop the car on the side of the highway when I heard the sirens and saw there was massive hail falling down there, she got in it. There was no shoulder where she was down there either so she was forced to keep driving in it. Luckily, it was the tail end, so miraculously, no car damage. We had severe damage from baseball hail in Abilene when we were at her parents at Easter a few years ago. Basically had to replace the whole thing.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Went out for a drive and there was a good bit more damage in our area than I expected. Sad thing is, a lot of the same houses that suffered wind damage during the fall high wind event suffered damage again last night. Saw a lot of smashed out windows, 2nd floor windows seemed to take the worst beating, and some roof damage. 

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radarman

radarman

Posted
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Looks like Wednesday could be another dryline day for N. Texas.

Really nicely done AFD this afternoon. Of course we miss the Cavanaugh masterpieces, but this one was a very good read in its own right. They are fairly bullish on the Wednesday threat, which has been hinted at on the models for several days now... mention linearity being the primary mode with embedded supercells. Hail and isolated tornadoes... not bad for day 5.

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Calderon

Calderon

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Really nicely done AFD this afternoon. Of course we miss the Cavanaugh masterpieces, but this one was a very good read in its own right. They are fairly bullish on the Wednesday threat, which has been hinted at on the models for several days now... mention linearity being the primary mode with embedded supercells. Hail and isolated tornadoes... not bad for day 5.

They've continued the heavy wording with overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday a possible hail threat with elevated cells, hopefully nothing like what bombarded FTW 2 weeks ago. The afternoon could become quite volatile with more than ample instability ahead of a dryline, with all severe threats in the cards for Wed afternoon/evening. 

 

We should know a lot more come Monday night.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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They've continued the heavy wording with overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday a possible hail threat with elevated cells, hopefully nothing like what bombarded FTW 2 weeks ago. The afternoon could become quite volatile with more than ample instability ahead of a dryline, with all severe threats in the cards for Wed afternoon/evening. 

 

We should know a lot more come Monday night.

Always comforting when they say to practice your severe weather safety plans now.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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They've continued the heavy wording with overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday a possible hail threat with elevated cells, hopefully nothing like what bombarded FTW 2 weeks ago. The afternoon could become quite volatile with more than ample instability ahead of a dryline, with all severe threats in the cards for Wed afternoon/evening.

We should know a lot more come Monday night.

Late night/early morning storms are always worrisome because there's no way of knowing what kind of boundaries they will leave behind. Like you said, any discrete cells that fire in the afternoon could have a volatile environment to work with.
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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Well...looks like nine drier than normal Marches in a row for me. I should have followed my own research. When we get >2.7" precip in Aug+Oct there is a 93% (!) shot of snow in the following March, and March averages 31% above normal precip. 

 

Funny thing is we haven't had >2.7" in Aug+Oct since 2006. In the super drought (PDO-, AMO+) of the late 40s-50s we had a similar period, with a huge gap in rainy Aug+Oct from 1946-1956 (inclusive, 11 years), comparable to the dry Aug+Octs of 2007-2015 (inclusive, nine years).

 

When we get <1.53" rain in August+October we only average snow in ~50% of the following Marches. Usually drier than normal too.

 

The good news is the cyclical nature of August+October rainfall implies we're due for a string of wet Augusts and Octobers. Once that happens, winter should be back in full force in the SW for a long-term era.

 

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