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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

So much for that marginal hail threat SPC mentioned earlier this morning. Had a probable tornado just northeast of Cool in Parker County earlier this morning as well. Probably will end up with a few million in hail damage in D/FW after all the numbers are put together. Kudos to FWD for hinting at the threat last night and for keeping situational awareness this morning. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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So much for that marginal hail threat SPC mentioned earlier this morning. Had a probable tornado just northeast of Cool in Parker County earlier this morning as well. Probably will end up with a few million in hail damage in D/FW after all the numbers are put together. Kudos to FWD for hinting at the threat last night and for keeping situational awareness this morning.

Seemed SPC didn't think coverage would warrant a watch. Maybe population density warranted a 6 or so county watch box. Ingredients were certainly in place and it was obvious from obs overnight that the threat was going to end up NE of what the HRRR was showing. But you're right, the locals were all over it and there was plenty of early morning coverage.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
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Seemed SPC didn't think coverage would warrant a watch. Maybe population density warranted a 6 or so county watch box. Ingredients were certainly in place and it was obvious from obs overnight that the threat was going to end up NE of what the HRRR was showing. But you're right, the locals were all over it and there was plenty of early morning coverage.

 

Oh I'm not arguing that there should have been a watch. I'm just amused that a 'marginal' hail threat ended up turning into a couple supercells with some big-a.. hail. Two counties north and it wouldn't have been much to talk about. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The MJO looks to be getting active again and that may be signaling another wet period for Texas. Lake Travis full some time in April? I remember see articles that it would "never" be full again.

Last May/June really took it a long way. That period was some of the worst rain events I've ever seen. Same with the Halloween storms around this area. 

 

Edit: Now down to only 0.3 feet from full.

 

http://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Here we go again?

CdyQz_zUkAAjndf.jpg

I'm not as interested in tonight as I was last night but we will wait and see. Thanks to the newborn, I'll be up during the night and early morning hours with some time to check the radar :lol:

Man. I remember doing night patrol. Fortunately my knucklehead doesn't wake up no matter what. Good luck!

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Here we go again?

CdyQz_zUkAAjndf.jpg

I'm not as interested in tonight as I was last night but we will wait and see. Thanks to the newborn, I'll be up during the night and early morning hours with some time to check the radar :lol:

Congrats on the new little one! Last night took me by surprise I wasn't even paying attention. Thankfully it all went around me. Warm front storms can be tricky and we had several episodes involving warm fronts up north, very little down here.
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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Wow the SPC sure missed today. This is the 1730z mid-day outlook from March 16, valid for March 17. There have been 148 severe weather reports on March 17. I didn't even think to look on the SPC page today.

 

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...   ...SUMMARY...   THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.   THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

It's pretty amazing looking back at some of the cold shots into the SW and TX that have come in El Ninos during March/April. There are quite a few years where it doesn't get out of the 30s in Albuquerque in late-March and early April, when highs average in the mid-upper 60s.

 

Last Day high temp was in the 30s in Albuquerque in El Nino years:

 

1939-40: Feb 19 (81)

1940-41: March 13 (104)

1941-42: March 7 (98)

1945-46: Feb 9 (71)

1951-52: March 22 (113)

1953-54: March 12 (103)

1957-58: March 12 (103)

1958-59: March 5 (96)

1963-64: Apr 4 (126)

1965-66: March 4 (95)

1968-69: March 11 (102)

1969-70: March 11 (102)

1972-73: Apr 2 (124)

1976-77: Jan 14 (45)

1977-78: Feb 18 (80)

1982-83: Apr 4 (126)

1986-87: March 29 (120)

1987-88: Jan 24 (55)

1991-92: Jan 20 (49)

1994-95: Jan 04 (35)

1997-98: Dec 28 (28)

2002-03: Feb 7 (69)

2004-05: Mar 15 (106)

2006-07: Feb 14 (76)

2009-10: Jan 24 (55)

2014-15: Feb 28 (90)

 

Dec - 1

Jan - 5

Feb - 6

Mar - 11

Apr - 3

 

Avg is Feb 25 for El Nino - 12 days later than overall average...but March is most common in El Nino.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The NAM 4k and HRRR are pretty dry across DFW with things today. The 00z Euro shows what appears to be a nice batch of convection firing with the front and moving across the NE portion of DFW today. The upgraded Euro isn't too far off in resolution from the US hi-res models, interesting battle. Given the timing of the s/w pass this morning, I tend to side with the US hi-res models. 

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