Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Srain]

That meso low that rolled off the Sierra Madre Mountains that also led to the United flight from Las Vegas skidding off the runway while landing at IAH early this morning is shifting E. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows the main upper low spinning across Southern New Mexico and with a SW flow aloft and clearing skies across West and Central Texas, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms later today across the Hill Country as the atmosphere destabilizes once again. Very heavy rainfall with heavy storms continue across Louisiana ahead of the MCV currently near Beaumont/Lake Charles.

 

 

 

[Roy]

First flash flood warning I have seen in years....since moving here last summer anyway.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the heaviest stuff is going to miss the office here in downtown but the house should get a nice soaking.

[jm1220]

It's been a total bore fest here with rain yet again underperforming here vs modeled 72 hours ago. Hopefully some of these storms today work out, quite a few breaks in the clouds around Austin now and quickly warming up.

[radarman]

NWS just tweeted this out a little while ago from our QPE product.  Quite a bit of rain over Tarrant County.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/587648627180343296

[Chinook]

Today is kind of an unusual setup in Texas with a slight/marginal risk just south of I-20, but nowhere else in the country. NE winds in Dallas and Oklahoma are fairly unusual.

[Roy]

Tech WRF shows a couple nice convective complexes over central/south Texas coming in the next couple days. Sure wish that would go up a few counties to smack DFW, but did get some good rain finally at least at least in FW. Somewhat concerned it doesn't really develop anything over North Texas despite discussions.

 

Seems the severe threat will be too far west.

[bubba hotep]

Tech WRF shows a couple nice convective complexes over central/south Texas coming in the next couple days. Sure wish that would go up a few counties to smack DFW, but did get some good rain finally at least at least in FW. Somewhat concerned it doesn't really develop anything over North Texas despite discussions.

Seems the severe threat will be too far west.

The HRRR was in that same boat yesterday but this morning's runs are getting stuff into the DFW area. It's almost always bad for us when convection is really firing down south.

[bubba hotep]

Watch up that includes DFW, on phone so can't post graphics. Parameters look pretty good, so maybe we can score some heavy rain across the area.

[jhamps10]

Watch up that includes DFW, on phone so can't post graphics. Parameters look pretty good, so maybe we can score some heavy rain across the area.

Keeping an eye on the cell near gatesville, could easily sweep across the metro.. Plus cells out west near mineral wells..

[jhamps10]

Watching cu stsrting to form here in west ft worth

[jm1220]

Activity looked nice for Austin for a while, but yet again it looks like the activity is settling south and east of us while we so far have some rolls of thunder and brief showers.

[jhamps10]

Whoever has the rain shield for Tarrant county just destroy it for goodness sakes!!!!

[Roy]

Yep, looks like the complex to the south is robbing us of our storms again. Argh.

[NTXYankee]

Whoever has the rain shield for Tarrant county just destroy it for goodness sakes!!!!

you mean all DFW or within the Dallas and Tarrant bubble.  Well nice to see east and south getting their fair share once again....  It's just not even funny anymore, sad really how everything can just possibly go around us or not even come close in almost every situation.

[Quixotic1]

That's drought for you. Perpetual persistence.

[jm1220]

AUS southeast of town had maybe a quarter inch of rain, barely anything measurable on the west side. At this rate, we'll be back in a drought in no time.

[DoctorMu]

One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

 

We missed out on the frozen stuff the past few years...oh, so close many times...and I lost 4 trees to drought (a couple in the same spot!), but we're thankful to have ground near saturation in CLL.  Severe T-storm and flash flood warning issues with some training in CLL area.

[Quixotic1]

One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

 

We missed out on the frozen stuff the past few years...oh, so close many times...and I lost 4 trees to drought (a couple in the same spot!), but we're thankful to have ground near saturation in CLL.  Severe T-storm and flash flood warning issues with some training in CLL area.

Ha! Touché!

[CranberryWX]

Got hit with a couple of decent storms this afternoon, 0.82", tornado watch for Houston area until midnight.

[Roy]

It's wonderful the tech WRF gives another round of MCS rains for south Texas and then Oklahoma, while skipping North Texas again. Enough to make one curse! Maybe we should be using reservoirs built northwest of Houston.

[bubba hotep]

It's wonderful the tech WRF gives another round of MCS rains for south Texas and then Oklahoma, while skipping North Texas again. Enough to make one curse! Maybe we should be using reservoirs built northwest of Houston.

We are in an amazingly crap setup for the DFW area

Too far east of the dryline and too far north of the impulses coming out of the SW. Maybe today? The HRRR is doing its thing again... My bet, another MCS moves south of us robbing our moisture feed and leaves us with nothing but subsidence.

[NTXYankee]

I decided not to park my car in the parking garage at work after yesterday and our typical pattern so today will be the day guys! Storms already firing south of San Angelo so here comes the start of our moisture robbery once they start moving east instead of northeast which should happen a couple counties south of us.

[Roy]

It will be our turn at some point, but maybe not with this system, and the sw next week is pretty weak. At some point, we will get ours and those to the south will miss out. But man, it's annoying to have a good system to the west and get nada when that summer death ridge will set up in maybe just a little over a month. Growing up in Kansas, summer was hot, often over 100 just like DFW. But, we weren't as often in the grip of that darn death ridge as much so we could still get nocturnal storm complexes coming through. Doubt that happens much in TX (sure didn't in Midland the five years were there).

[bubba hotep]

I like the look of radar out west better than yesterday but would like to see some storms fire between Abilene and San Angelo.  That might help the dynamics of the budding MCS and allow it to push into the DFW area. 

[jhamps10]

And I see the moisture robbing begins again I would expect looking at the complex by San Angelo... Ugh maybe instead of building a toll road maybe the mayor of Dallas needs to pay for cloud seeding!

[wxmx]

Looks like a good pattern for TS and maybe isolated hail around here in the late afternoon/early evening. Yesterday I got dime/marble size hail for a brief period during a quick torrential soaker.

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171555Z - 171800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS
INTO MIDDAY. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY WITHIN A PRE-DRYLINE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500+ J/KG...NORTH OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE VICINITY OF A STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. FORCING ON THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW MAY BE SUPPORTING THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR OCCASIONAL
SEVERE HAIL INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.

EAST OF THE DRY LINE...AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE RED
RIVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 25-35
KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATION TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...BUT THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY AT LEAST INITIALLY STRONGER
INHIBITION STILL PRESENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH MAY NOT WEAKEN APPRECIABLY UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR/HART.. 04/17/2015

[bubba hotep]

 

Will there be enough to get one issued for the DFW are later on this evening...

[Chinook]

Hey for all you Texas folks out there: The Dyess AFB radar is about 27 miles east of Abilene, but Dyess AFB is about 7 miles west of Abilene. Why do they call it Dyess AFB radar then? It's not on the Air Force Base. By satellite imagery, it is in the middle of ranchland with nothing there.