Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quakertown needs snow]

Ill be at taos thursday thru sunday. Hopefully they can a get a nice little hit to help the conditions. Santa fe was great when I was there before xmas.

[aggiegeog]

The GFS looks much like the NAM besides low level temps below 850mb which it has significantly warmer. The NAM is usually better at temps especially on a fine scale so I tend to lean toward it. That said I expect some snow to mix in along the I-20 and accumulation along and norh of I-30.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS looks much like the NAM besides low level temps below 850mb which it has significantly warmer. The NAM is usually better at temps especially on a fine scale so I tend to lean toward it. That said I expect some snow to mix in along the I-20 and accumulation along and norh of I-30.

A blend of the 12z Euro/ Para Euro and 18z NAMs would match up pretty well for that area. Stretching back to I35 or just west of there. FWD isn't at all concerned, no mention of it in AFD this afternoon. Like you pointed out, 850mb up looks good across all models but from there down to surface is anywhere from blow torch to sketchy at best

It is hard to buy what the NAMs are selling. There is no cold air to the north to pin advection hopes on, so this would have to be dynamically driven. There is talk that this could break the Feb SLP record for Louisiana. Record breaking events are tricky to forecast and it would take something like that to pull off a snow miracle!

[ams30721us]

A blend of the 12z Euro/ Para Euro and 18z NAMs would match up pretty well for that area. Stretching back to I35 or just west of there. FWD isn't at all concerned, no mention of it in AFD this afternoon. Like you pointed out, 850mb up looks good across all models but from there down to surface is anywhere from blow torch to sketchy at best

It is hard to buy what the NAMs are selling. There is no cold air to the north to pin advection hopes on, so this would have to be dynamically driven. There is talk that this could break the Feb SLP record for Louisiana. Record breaking events are tricky to forecast and it would take something like that to pull off a snow miracle!

 

Oh they're watching it, although it's def. no slam dunk forecast. They sent out an email this evening highlighting the slight potential. Pretty much covers the situation as of now IMO.

 

 

 

Good evening everyone, 

 

Just wanted to follow up on the earlier email.  While the forecast has not changed at this point, we do want to highlight a few issues: 

 

Bottom Line: Monitor the forecast closely for the next 24 hours for the potential for wintry precipitation. 

 

This is an extremely tricky forecast, and the atmosphere has not forgotten that it is indeed February. 

 

What we are certain about: 

 

* plenty of moisture 

* strong north winds expected on Tuesday

* most areas will receive soaking rainfall

* cold temperatures aloft

* wind chill factor will be much less than the air temperature

 

What are are less certain about: 

 

* temperatures 

* areas of strongest lift 

 

What this means: While not forecast, there is a possibility of our current forecast being too warm tomorrow. This could result in a forecast change to snow or rain/snow mix from the DFW Metroplex to the north and northeast tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

 

Continue to monitor the forecast for any changes. Temperatures are expected to stay at/above freezing, lessening impacts to roads. Morning commute on Tuesday will likely not be affected.

 

Mark 

[bubba hotep]

Oh they're watching it, although it's def. no slam dunk forecast. They sent out an email this evening highlighting the slight potential. Pretty much covers the situation as of now IMO.

 

Ok, see that they included in in the Aviation AFD this evening:

 

IF

SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN COOL ENOUGH DUE TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND

INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW

COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF

THIS OCCURRING IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND THERE

ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP BELOW

FREEZING AT METROPLEX TAF SITES.

[raindancewx]

Rooting for a bit of snow tonight/Tuesday. Currently 50F or so but dewpoint is 16F. Wet bulb magic implies we get to 30-35F for temps if precip makes it here. Temps unlikely to be cold enough though til well after midnight.

 

Mountains could use a lot of help - we lost lots of snow in the mid-Feb warm up. Everything is going to down to March here - we need lots of moisture/cold/snow. Our snow-pack dies early again with a warm/dry March

[aggiegeog]

In just about any non-Super El Nino winter we would be starting a 3-6" snow from this setup, frustrating. Sub -3C at 850, sub 0C at 925 and 4C at the surface uggh. Been watching the RAP and it continues to slowly trend down temps tonight, 2.5-3C at the surface and maybe we could see something.

[bubba hotep]

In just about any non-Super El Nino winter we would be starting a 3-6" snow from this setup, frustrating. Sub -3C at 850, sub 0C at 925 and 4C at the surface uggh. Been watching the RAP and it continues to slowly trend down temps tonight, 2.5-3C at the surface and maybe we could see something.

 

Yea, this whole day has been super frustrating! Watching the storm unfold on satellite and SPC Meso site... this would have been a classic pounding with cold air in place. Maybe next winter  

[Quixotic1]

I got a candied apple!"

"I got some gum!"

"I got a rock."

[raindancewx]

This is what the winter looks like so far for temps. Looks pretty accurate to me. If it doesn't change much in the next week, temperatures look similar to a blend of Dec-Feb 2004-05, 1994-95, 1991-92, 1953-54 although the individual months are very different.

 

 

 

 

Fall ENSO conditions prior to the 26 ERSST V4 DJF El Ninos since 1931 seem to be a pretty good guess for March rain in Albuquerque, and so I remain cautiously optimistic for March. I've had <0.1" of precip since mid-Jan. We're kind of due.

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, models seem to be hinting at that we may see a very similar setup to this past system in about a week but with possibly more cold air. MJO Phase 8 is our last best chance at any cold this winter.

[aggiegeog]

Hmmm, models seem to be hinting at that we may see a very similar setup to this past system in about a week but with possibly more cold air. MJO Phase 8 is our last best chance at any cold this winter.

I am keeping an eye on it. A similar 540 is 500mb low and sub 1000 mb surface low to our east during winter should almost always equal snow if there is at least a modest Plains Arctic high (1030 or 1035 mb even should work).

[wxmx]

Euro is funny looking with the next week's feature...a nightmare forecast-wise as it's a potent little ULL that would have a very limited winter precipitation area (dynamically assisted), but could be very significant to those under it.

[Quixotic1]

Euro is funny looking with the next week's feature...a nightmare forecast-wise as it's a potent little ULL that would have a very limited winter precipitation area (dynamically assisted), but could be very significant to those under it.

March 2008. Very dynamic.

[Roy]

Getting a little worried as the storm next week is now much less impressive, and models aren't showing much rain to the end of their cycle. Hope that changes. 

[PelicanGuy]

Here's the tornado count so far from Tuesday courtesy of NWS New Orleans. Graphic is from The Baton Rouge Advocate.

 

[raindancewx]

 

From Wunderground's Steve Gregory. What do you all think?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/mild-end-to-winter--wx-refuses-to-cooperate-with-models--mar-outlook

[bubba hotep]

 

From Wunderground's Steve Gregory. What do you all think?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/mild-end-to-winter--wx-refuses-to-cooperate-with-models--mar-outlook

 

A lot of the drier Jan/Feb Nino years flipped wet in March, so that seems kind of like the way to go. I always have '97/98 lurking... that was a horribly dry Spring.  Here is what The Weather Company put out for temps:

 

[raindancewx]

[raindancewx]

This is mostly for fun, but this is roughly what I expect for March, 2016. Might be good for a laugh next month though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second map is a precip guess. I buy the mid-late March period being wet in the West. East probably has a window around the 3/5-3/10 before the switch.

[bubba hotep]

Welp, that's all. The last couple of days of ensemble model runs are in pretty good agreement that winter is over (has been for a while) for N. Texas. This is by far one of the worst winters I've ever experienced. I hope to never hear the words "Super El Nino" again! 

[David Reimer]

Both the ECMWF and GFS have shown a system around March 7 impacting parts of Texas. Some runs have shown very impressive precipitation totals. 

[Quixotic1]

David Reimer, thanks for the hope. I need it. A snowless winter is awful when you're looking at 5 months of 95 plus.

[bubba hotep]

I guess there is still some hope? The latest significant snowfall at DFW is 2" on March 29, 1937 and 3 times DFW has recorded a trace of snow in April . I fell pretty confident we will see above avg. precipitation for March and April. I just hope we don't see any significant svr weather. 

[raindancewx]

Phase one in March...in an El Nino? Sign me up. I've been checking around, Weatherbell, Accuweather, NOAA, Commoditiy WX, and Larry Casgrove are all on board with the the Subtropical Jet/precip coming back over the SW from it's Mexican vacation.

 

Phase 1:

[DoctorMu]

Phase one in March...in an El Nino? Sign me up. I've been checking around, Weatherbell, Accuweather, NOAA, Commoditiy WX, and Larry Casgrove are all on board with the the Subtropical Jet/precip coming back over the SW from it's Mexican vacation.

 

Phase 1:

 

 

Could be.  This Super El Nino has been more flop than flip, and has left me highly skeptical.  

 

 

High and dry until proven otherwise!

[bubba hotep]

Looks like things will get active starting this weekend as a couple of impulses kick out as a big system digs into the SW. We could see some impressive rain totals for areas E. of I35. 

[bubba hotep]

Phase one in March...in an El Nino? Sign me up. I've been checking around, Weatherbell, Accuweather, NOAA, Commoditiy WX, and Larry Casgrove are all on board with the the Subtropical Jet/precip coming back over the SW from it's Mexican vacation.

 

Phase 1:

 

March looks to be rocking for Cali and the SW for sure. New Mexico looks to cash in, but not sure the MJO will make it to Phase 1. This is more just the El Nino background state taking over.

 

I figured you would like this map:

 

[raindancewx]

I'm not sure it will get to phase one either - but statistically, I just don't buy our streak of dry Marches in Albuquerque lasting much longer. Since all six strong DJF El Ninos had wet Marches (41,58,73,83,98) I kind of like our odds, although Accuweather has us down to 0.28" in March now...but it's been changing every day. Albuquerque from 2006-2015 had it's driest decade of Marches. 

 

56% of Marches were drier than average from 1932-2015: the odds of eight in a row are 1%. Nine in a row gets you to once in a couple century odds.

 

It does worry me a bit that our five warmest Febs in El Ninos had pretty dry Marches, but none of them were strong El Ninos. The Fall ONI values and Nov temps locally both correlate pretty well to high-ish March precip in El Nino years, but we'll have to see.

[bubba hotep]