Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

I got one card to play and I'm saving it. It worked last year.....

 

The Para Euro has been beating all the models lately so I'll play the Weenie 101 card, "Euro and GFS probably aren't handling all the energy dropping into the SW that bleeds into the Pacific properly and are probably too slow to bring back the high lat blocking! Go Para Euro, lock it in #Snow" 

[raindancewx]

Starting to see reports trickle in about how good the ski-season has been here. We had ~909,000 ski visits Nov 2014 - Apr 2015. If you show up 50 days you count 50 times, if you show up once, you count once. The 909,000 was up 176,000 visits from Nov 13 - Apr 14 - not surprising - as 2014-15 had frequent snows in Jan, huge snows in late February, and then snow again in April. 2013-14 had decent snow in late Nov-mid Dec and then nothing the rest of the season other than February.

 

Ski Santa Fe / Pajarito are saying they're up 50% or so from 2014-15, and Ski Taos has said traffic has been "awesome". Apparently a really good season for the state would be 1m - 1.2m visits - that was our "heyday" in the early 1990s, probably related to Pinatubo and the 1991-92 El Nino. The cold seasons of 1990/91, 1991/92, 1992/93 were the last three year period Albuquerque had above average snowfall three years in a row.

 

"Ski Santa Fe has seen a 46 percent increase in skier visits so far this year compared to last year, about 25,000 more visitors. Last season saw a total of about 152,000 visitors. Revenue is also up 40 percent, according to Abruzzo. Ski Santa Fe has seen a total snowfall of 159 inches, the same amount it sees for a whole season some years, Abruzzo says." 

http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/news/2016/01/14/el-ni-o-blows-in-a-successful-ski-season-and-were.html

 

It's laughably early, but Accuweather does seem to buy the SW getting a really wet/cold March. Accuweather has Albuquerque getting 1.57" precip from March 1 - 21. That's roughly triple the monthly average with 10 days not even shown yet for the month. Elephant Butte Lake is at 18.4% capacity, if/when it tops 20% from the Spring snow melt/new rains we should be able to store a lot of current snow as water too. At >20% we come out of Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact.

 

Some of the longer range MJO forecasts have it getting to phase 8 in late February now. Phases 1,2,3 are the good ones for March...so fingers crossed. That may be what Accuweather has picked up on too.

[Quixotic1]

The Para Euro has been beating all the models lately so I'll play the Weenie 101 card, "Euro and GFS probably aren't handling all the energy dropping into the SW that bleeds into the Pacific properly and are probably too slow to bring back the high lat blocking! Go Para Euro, lock it in #Snow"

Mine is more the weenie/illiterate version where I declare winter over and pout, only to look like a goober later, but a goober that got 2 good storms.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro Op trended towards the Para, Para is colder but Op is wetter (DFW area speaking). Maybe finally something to track? The energy that eventually becomes the system moves onshore in about  5 days. 

[aggiegeog]

This is what it looks like up at 9k feet in NM. Most of the clouds in the background is snow blowing off of Jicarita Peak which you can barely see part of beyond the trees.

Glad to have taken the 4 wheel drive truck.

[DoctorMu]

00z Euro Op trended towards the Para, Para is colder but Op is wetter (DFW area speaking). Maybe finally something to track? The energy that eventually becomes the system moves onshore in about  5 days. 

 

 

Link for Para?  Thx.

[bubba hotep]

Link for Para? Thx.

I'm using WxBell. I haven't seen a free site with the Para Euro. But it doesn't matter, it looks like the Euros folded to the GFS! GFS is rock solid when it shows boring weather for Texas so far this winter. I think it's time to throw in the towel on this worthless winter. I hope to never see another super el nino winter

And the 12z GFS will probably end up verifying at 100% since it shows no freezes and basically no rain at DFW over the next two weeks.

[DoctorMu]

I'm using WxBell. I haven't seen a free site with the Para Euro. But it doesn't matter, it looks like the Euros folded to the GFS! GFS is rock solid when it shows boring weather for Texas so far this winter. I think it's time to throw in the towel on this worthless winter. I hope to never see another super el nino winter

And the 12z GFS will probably end up verifying at 100% since it shows no freezes and basically no rain at DFW over the next two weeks.

 

 

The winter has been a great disappointment.     We're trending to drier, windier, and warmer in CLL.   Am resisting using sprinklers this early - only the weeds would benefit anyway!

[Quixotic1]

Great pics Aggigeo.

All I can offer is this: after the super Nino, the transport of O3 will be great meaning more blocking. My gut says -AO and -NAO are likely. We'll get some real winter next year.

[raindancewx]

I'm expecting some kind of transition away from the east coast centered portion of the winter around the 15th to the 20th, if something is going to happen in March, it will begin to happen late in February.

 

Historically, 19/26 Springs are wetter than normal in Albuquerque (last year certainly was), so if the long term odds are to hold true, we are due for a big shift to moisture. The MJO is forecast to reach phase 7 by Feb 22 on some models now.

 

[bubba hotep]

I'm expecting some kind of transition away from the east coast centered portion of the winter around the 15th to the 20th, if something is going to happen in March, it will begin to happen late in February.

Historically, 19/26 Springs are wetter than normal in Albuquerque (last year certainly was), so if the long term odds are to hold true, we are due for a big shift to moisture. The MJO is forecast to reach phase 7 by Feb 22 on some models now.

Temps over the last 5 to 7 days have been somewhat in line with what you would expect from Phase 4 during a nino. The PNA has also been pretty classic the last couple of weeks if you look at MJO lag response during a nino. So things have been pretty much on schedule for our region since about mid January. The problem is that the models don't seem to be picking up on the fact that the MJO is on the move again, regarding temp response. There are indications we will turn wetter as we move into spring and that is pretty well supported by the analogs as well as the telecommunications. When will the cold show up? Too late to matter for most of Texas?

[bubba hotep]

Wow... What an ugly 00z Euro package. At DFW - No members with snow through D15, pushing 80 by D10, less than 0.25" of rain by D10. Only "bright" spot is it looks wetter past D10 but that has been there for a while and never seems to move closer up with time.

[wxmx]

Temps over the last 5 to 7 days have been somewhat in line with what you would expect from Phase 4 during a nino. The PNA has also been pretty classic the last couple of weeks if you look at MJO lag response during a nino. So things have been pretty much on schedule for our region since about mid January. The problem is that the models don't seem to be picking up on the fact that the MJO is on the move again, regarding temp response. There are indications we will turn wetter as we move into spring and that is pretty well supported by the analogs as well as the telecommunications. When will the cold show up? Too late to matter for most of Texas?

Too late for me anyways...I think Jan 15th is too late for me . Second consecutive year with no subfreezing temps. I know where I live, so I don't expect much. Still, there's some chance for altitude snow for the next 3 weeks.

[wxmx]

Wow... What an ugly 00z Euro package. At DFW - No members with snow through D15, pushing 80 by D10, less than 0.25" of rain by D10. Only "bright" spot is it looks wetter past D10 but that has been there for a while and never seems to move closer up with time.

I think this time is for real (wetter, I mean). Late February and March look pretty wet. Miserably and dreadfully wet.

[DFWWeather]

Wow... What an ugly 00z Euro package. At DFW - No members with snow through D15, pushing 80 by D10, less than 0.25" of rain by D10. Only "bright" spot is it looks wetter past D10 but that has been there for a while and never seems to move closer up with time.

 

To put things in dire perspective on how "hot" this winter has actually been, DFW has yet to fall to 25°F, and from the look of things, probably won't this cold season. This is unprecedented in all of weather recorded history (117 years). We have always fallen to 25 or below every cold season. The total number of freezes this winter is at the very minimum of the scale. We have not had any days with highs below 40°F this winter which I believe is also a first. I think it is quite safe to assume that strong El Niños are not good for Texas winters.

[raindancewx]

I think a lot what has fought this El Nino precip-wise lately is how warm the Atlantic is - that pushes the storm track north in winter after the storms dive into the West. 

 

The Jan 16 AMO value came in at the warmest level since Jan 1953.

 

Based on the Nov-Jan average in the AMO compared to what happened in Nov-Apr the six closest El Ninos for Nov 15-Apr 16 are likely to be:

1997-98 (wet spring)

2004-05 (wet spring)

2006-07 (wet spring)

2009-10

1951-52 (wet spring)

1957-58 (wet spring)

 

MAM Average in Spring: 2.53", including close to an inch in March. 2.7" snow in March-April on average. Feb - pretty dry in some years. Figures are for Albuquerque.

 

Based on the actual AMO values in Nov-Jan, these are the closest El Nino winters to date:

2006-07 (wet spring)

1953-54

1945-46 (wet spring, although barely)

2004-05 (wet spring)

1951-52 (wet spring)

1958-59 (wet spring)

 

MAM Average in Spring: 2.07". 2.9" snow in March-April on average. Feb - pretty dry in some years. Figures are for Albuquerque.

[bubba hotep]

I think this time is for real (wetter, I mean). Late February and March look pretty wet. Miserably and dreadfully wet.

 

Yep, models are certainly picking up on the MJO moving through Phase 5/6. The 12z Euro EPS today was great looking from D8 until end of the run. 

[Quixotic1]

February 22nd. Lock it in.

[raindancewx]

Accuweather has kind of gone crazy, and I do still think its the CFS - but it shows 2.3" precip in Albuquerque by March 25. Implies a month ~5x wetter than normal.

 

3/6 - 0.04

3/7 - 0.03

3/8 - 0.23

3/9 - 0.07

3/10 - 0.05

3/11 - 0.09

3/12 - 0.06

3/13 - 0.14

3/14 - 0.16

3/15 - 0.09

3/17 - 0.08

3/18 - 0.22

3/19 - 0.16

3/20 - 0.19

3/21 - 0.22

3/22 - 0.10

3/24 - 0.05

3/25 - 0.25

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/albuquerque-nm/87102/march-weather/349680?monyr=3/1/2016&view=table

[bubba hotep]

The worst part about all of this, the wife thinks it is "spring cleaning" time! Ugh 

[raindancewx]

PDO recovered strongly in January - 1.53. Up from 1.01 in December 15.

 

Closest six years from Nov-Jan in an El Nino: 1939, 1941, 1969, 1976, 1987, 1997 - all wet Springs except 1969-70, all wet Marches except 1970. 0.85" average for March. Figures for Albuquerque. 4.6" average snow in March-April. 2.20" average in Spring.

 

PDO in Nov to Apr will likely be closest to 1939, 1969, 1976, 1982, 1987, 1997. Similar March average. 3.6" average snow in Mar-Apr. 1.97" average in Spring.

[bubba hotep]

6 years ago today I was living it up during Washington, DCs snowiest winter ever but y'all did ok down here:

 

[Quixotic1]

So awesome. It was above freezing much of the time. Snow ratio was 10:1.

[bubba hotep]

Meh, it looks like we could turn cooler by the end of the month but once again the heart of the cold will probably stay to the NE of Texas. The increasing PDO looks to be driving more -EPO but we can't get any sustained relaxation of the PNA. I wonder if the warm anomalies off Cali north of the Enso boxes are helping drive this stubborn PNA?

[Quixotic1]

The PDO doesn't seem to give a hoot about the enso state. It's been incredibly resilient for almost three years now. As it grows the PNA seems to grow with it. 13-14 it had begun and the cold came more down the spine of the Rockies. As it strengthened into 14-15, it seemed to push things off to the NE until the end of winter. This year now that the progressive pattern seems to be slackening, we are back to where we were at this time last year.

Incidentally, that negative phase of the PDO from the late 90s to 2013 is ridiculously short lived.

[raindancewx]

The PDO doesn't seem to give a hoot about the enso state. It's been incredibly resilient for almost three years now. As it grows the PNA seems to grow with it. 13-14 it had begun and the cold came more down the spine of the Rockies. As it strengthened into 14-15, it seemed to push things off to the NE until the end of winter. This year now that the progressive pattern seems to be slackening, we are back to where we were at this time last year.

Incidentally, that negative phase of the PDO from the late 90s to 2013 is ridiculously short lived.

 

The Positive PDO phase is still dropping off though on net - it's way lower than last January. The annualized spikes in 2014/2015 aren't super different in timing from 1957/1958 if you consider ~1946 / 2006 the flip to the cold phase. 57/58 were both positive PDO years in the cold cycle. We probably are in a weaker cold PDO cycle though given that 57-58 didn't spike as much as 14-15.

 

I did look just for ****s and giggles at what the CFS V2 had for Feb precip wise - in late Jan it said "dry as a bone" in TX/SW states for Feb, so if it is still says "wet March" in a week or so, I think you have to take it seriously. I've never been impressed with it for temps though.

 

Every March in ABQ with >=0.8" precip had at least some measurable snow here - so I'd look for that. I'm pretty confident in the wet signal for March/Spring. Less so in the cold signal for Spring. Last year we had a warm dry March, a moist, mild April and then a very cold (-6F May vs. normal highs) and a very wet May (1.86" >3x normal rain). Came close to snowing here in late May actually (42F with rain in the morning). Ended up being a slightly cool (-0.5F) and wet (+50%) Spring in ABQ. 

 

If for some reason the Spring is a dud precip wise...we all are going to bake this Summer, So there is that too.

[Quixotic1]

The Positive PDO phase is still dropping off though on net - it's way lower than last January. The annualized spikes in 2014/2015 aren't super different in timing from 1957/1958 if you consider ~1946 / 2006 the flip to the cold phase. 57/58 were both positive PDO years in the cold cycle. We probably are in a weaker cold PDO cycle though given that 57-58 didn't spike as much as 14-15.

I did look just for ****s and giggles at what the CFS V2 had for Feb precip wise - in late Jan it said "dry as a bone" in TX/SW states for Feb, so if it is still says "wet March" in a week or so, I think you have to take it seriously. I've never been impressed with it for temps though.

Every March in ABQ with >=0.8" precip had at least some measurable snow here - so I'd look for that. I'm pretty confident in the wet signal for March/Spring. Less so in the cold signal for Spring. Last year we had a warm dry March, a moist, mild April and then a very cold (-6F May vs. normal highs) and a very wet May (1.86" >3x normal rain). Came close to snowing here in late May actually (42F with rain in the morning). Ended up being a slightly cool (-0.5F) and wet (+50%) Spring in ABQ.

If for some reason the Spring is a dud precip wise...we all are going to bake this Summer, So there is that too.

Oh I'm on board with the wet spring, and I think severe weather is going to be eventful, much like last year. The killer here has been the dearth of cold. Totally absent. 57-58 was brutal here winter wise. Let's hope that like 57-58, it kicks off a string of awesome winters like 58-65.

[raindancewx]

Here is a fun fact for Albuquerque that bodes well for the SW: None of the 12 months is ever drier than normal more than 12 years in a row here based on 1931-2015.

 

ABQ has had eight dry Marches in a row (2008-2015). On a month by month basis, the average break time for consecutive dryness is 8-9 years, i.e. once you get to 7 or 8 years in a row of below normal precip...the following year is the break year to above average precip. May & Sept both had insane, 12 year periods of consecutive dryness.

 

The odds of getting eight dry Marches in a row here, based on 1931-2015, works out 1%, given 37/85 Marches are wet (37/85)^8. The odds of nine dry Marches in a row...would be a bit over 0.6%. I don't think we're in a once in a multi-century dry period for March, so the streak likely ends this year. If not this year...certainly by 2019.

 

May 2015 was ridiculously cold/wet in TX/SW states so that month will probably be warmer/drier. But I am a big believer in March/April. Accuweather has backed off to 1.31" for ABQ though (has varied from 1.3"-2.6" in the last week for March).

[bubba hotep]

February 22nd. Lock it in.

 

The 00z Para Euro is close and has a big snowstorm for New Mexico with a H5 cutoff dropping towards El Paso. There is some cold air around, it would be the best setup we have probably seen all winter. However, who knows what would happen after D10 and the Para Euro has had a bunch of false alarms for us in the D8 - 10 range all winter. 

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is about as ugly as it gets, keeps DFW above 40 throughout the entire run with less than a 0.10" of rain. More and more ensemble members are coming in dry, as well, across the different models. A repeat of spring '98 trying to emerge?