Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quixotic1]

as long as the cold is available we will be in good shape. Looks like we might get that. Maybe need to stop at HMs Twitter page for a dose of pessimism to keep me grounded.

[1900hurricane]

Just looking at the radar, it looks like SETX is currently experiencing a tornado outbreak. A crap boundary layer saves all.

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[raindancewx]

Pretty amazing snowband moved through Albuquerque earlier - but missed the northern quarter of the city. Looks like the downtown area picked up 1-2" snow in 20-40 minutes. My place got jack.

[jm1220]

Tornado warning NE of Beaumont. Looked like a pretty healthy hook there for a bit. 

[bubba hotep]

lol... overnight model runs were pretty much straight up meh unless you live in SE TX or LA and like rain.

[ams30721us]

Ah...it wasn't nearly that bad. I was actually quite encouraged by the 00z Runs! Especially the Euro. Needs a little work but a very active and colder pattern ahead. The Thu/Fri system will likely be a bit too warm for anything but rain, as we moderate on the backside of the high pressure. But that kicker for Sun/Mon timeframe could trend interesting. Right now, it's a near miss from a widespread winter storm across the State. The 00z Euro actually brings the northern edge of wintry weather Sunday into Deep East Texas from a NW Gulf Low. Stay tuned on that system.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro isn't a bad look at D10 but would like to see more ridging from Cali up into the Mt. West.

ETA: 12z Euro EPS & Control deliver the goods from D8 - D15!

ETA 2: the 12z and 18z GFS runs combined are still bone dry at DFW through 15 days.... Some of the analogs that stuck out to me were dry in January and February. IMO, I'll take anything over dry weather!

[ams30721us]

The weekend and heading into the start of the following week still looks like the period to watch for us! The pattern is so chatoic that the models are having a problem keying in on specifics but the overall pattern with those two disturbances are offering interesting possibilities. 

 

 

FWD:

 

 

ALL OF THE MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH OR POSSIBLY TWO WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...ONE POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY
AND THEN THE NEXT ONE POTENTIALLY SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AND HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...THE SURFACE PATTERNS ARE CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT AS WELL BUT THEY HAVE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER COLD AIR PLUNGE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND BOTH MODELS
HINT AT A POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS BUT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

[bubba hotep]

We still need some consistency in the models but the 12z/00z runs of the Euro/EPS/Para all provided some encouraging signs for the D8 - D15 range. Top image below contains some of the more prolific El Nino N. Texas snow storms (got the list from here http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows but don't know how complete that is) and the bottom is the 00z Euro EPS. 

 

 

[ams30721us]

Yep, so much noise in the pattern, it's almost impossible to pinpoint any certain event. Even the rain makers of Wednesday-Friday are all over the place still. 

 

After actually going back and looking over all the 00z data, it's def. encouraging for wintry weather in Texas by this weekend or early next week...or maybe both?

00z Euro is actually a winter weather event across northern & central Texas both Saturday into Sunday....and then again Monday into Tuesday. 

 

I personally like the Monday/Tuesday system the best, but can't sleep on the weekend energy and how it interacts with the cold air in regards to timing and placement. 

 

Either way, looks like we see a slight & brief moderating trend closer to normal from midweek through Friday before the next blast arrives.

[bubba hotep]

Nothing will make you a fool faster than trying to extrapolate model images, but the 12z GFS looks pretty good at 168... 

[bubba hotep]

Surprised there isn't more chatter but the 12z GFS and Euro are both very interesting for our area. Lot of time for things to go the other way but the trends over the last 48 hrs have been pretty encouraging.  

[ams30721us]

Lol...just took a quick glance over everything. Yep, this weekend is still looking noisy, energy wise but basically the setup is looking a bit clearer. 

 

-The next surge of cold arrives with a front on Friday. Maybe a few rain showers, etc. 

 

-Potential of a weak wave over the weekend, although models seem to keep that closer to the red river and north. 

 

-Then all 3 Global models are keying on a strong disturbance rotating through Texas on Monday into Tuesday. All 3 also show the potential of a significant widespread winter event during that time frame for Texas. Especially between the I-10 corridor and I-20 corridor (W to E) 

 

Obviously specifics and placement, timing , etc. will all need to be watched in the coming days, but this may be the first potential significant threat for someone! Fingers crossed at least.

 

bubba hotep, on 10 Jan 2016 - 1:50 PM, said:

 

Surprised there isn't more chatter but the 12z GFS and Euro are both very interesting for our area. Lot of time for things to go the other way but the trends over the last 48 hrs have been pretty encouraging.  

[bubba hotep]

Lol...just took a quick glance over everything. Yep, this weekend is still looking noisy, energy wise but basically the setup is looking a bit clearer.

-The next surge of cold arrives with a front on Friday. Maybe a few rain showers, etc.

-Potential of a weak wave over the weekend, although models seem to keep that closer to the red river and north.

-Then all 3 Global models are keying on a strong disturbance rotating through Texas on Monday into Tuesday. All 3 also show the potential of a significant widespread winter event during that time frame for Texas. Especially between the I-10 corridor and I-20 corridor (W to E)

Obviously specifics and placement, timing , etc. will all need to be watched in the coming days, but this may be the first potential significant threat for someone! Fingers crossed at least.

bubba hotep, on 10 Jan 2016 - 1:50 PM, said:

Surprised there isn't more chatter but the 12z GFS and Euro are both very interesting for our area. Lot of time for things to go the other way but the trends over the last 48 hrs have been pretty encouraging.

Yea, the models have appeared to latch onto more consolidated energy a couple of times here lately only to give up on that and/or just shear things out. Until the flow calms down some things are going to be flippant.

[Quixotic1]

I'm watching. Leery of how poor the models have been this winter. You know it's a bad time when the CFS has been the voice of reason.

[bubba hotep]

I'm watching. Leery of how poor the models have been this winter. You know it's a bad time when the CFS has been the voice of reason.

 

For sure! and the CPC super ensemble is still being dominated by '98. However, I think we have already logged enough negative anomalies to avoid a '98 style January.  

[DoctorMu]

Nothing will make you a fool faster than trying to extrapolate model images, but the 12z GFS looks pretty good at 168... 

 

Gotta love the 1/19 solution though.     

 

 

[aggiegeog]

Already down to 30 here. Hope we can squeeze some snow out if all of the cold over the next few weeks.

[bubba hotep]

Already down to 30 here. Hope we can squeeze some snow out if all of the cold over the next few weeks.

 

Yea, we need to pull big time for this upcoming window! We may only get one more solid cold snap before we transition back towards "December" with the MJO dying off. It looks like the MJO could fade back towards the COD, allowing the pattern to flip warm with a flood of Pacific air. I suspect we will start to see a lot of chatter about El Nino "rate of decay" as people scramble to explain away the warmth. Hopefully, it will be temporary and we can salvage most of February. 

 

I see FWD didn't want to touch the threat for the start of next week. They cut the discussion off at D7/8 and didn't mention anything beyond that. 

[Quixotic1]

For sure! and the CPC super ensemble is still being dominated by '98. However, I think we have already logged enough negative anomalies to avoid a '98 style January.

Pacific is the deal. We keep the -EPO/ +PNA, we get cold. Not necessarily arctic like the past two years but polar. That would be enough. A few cold surges would guarantee some fun. I don't think we need cross polar flow to have fun if the STJ is streaming right over us.

09-10 was like that. There were a couple of storms that came over some borderline cold air. Feb 10 was around 30 at 6 AM when it snowing and it varied up to 32 but that didn't stop us from getting a foot. Then March another storm. The air was even warmer. Probably less cold than the current airmass. (42 for a high I think)? Started snowing and then it dumped. 9 inches in Collin. If we got a winder like we did day after Christmas with our current airmass, it would have been a blast.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement across the 00z Euro suite that the winter weather threat for next weekend is real. Now just need to hold on to it for a couple of more days Then maybe around Wednesday we can start worrying about details.

ETA: looking a little closer at the Euro EPS and there is still a lot of spread. However, about 30 members show something but they are spread out over the period from about hour 144 to hour 240.

[Quixotic1]

Don't look at the 12z Ops.  Horrible. 

[bubba hotep]

Don't look at the 12z Ops. Horrible.

I'll be away from my computer until tomorrow morning. I saw the train wreck that was the 12z GFS. Was still holding out hope for the Euro

[ams30721us]

Hmm..Doesn't look horrible to me....two potential systems still on the table per the 12z Euro. Saturday...and then Monday. (of course this is IF you believe any model right now.) 

[Quixotic1]

Hmm..Doesn't look horrible to me....two potential systems still on the table per the 12z Euro. Saturday...and then Monday. (of course this is IF you believe any model right now.) 

 

Yeah, the Euro hadn't come in fully when I wrote that (and I still haven't looked at it yet).  I was looking at the GFS and the CMC.  It always bothers me when an event in some form or fashion appears on a few consecutive runs and then disappears.  

[bubba hotep]

Hmm..Doesn't look horrible to me....two potential systems still on the table per the 12z Euro. Saturday...and then Monday. (of course this is IF you believe any model right now.)

I have limited cell reception but from what I can tell, the Euro looks decent. Hard to tell what the first wave does but the cutoff looks decent. Hopefully, I'll have something worth looking at tomorrow when I get back.

[ams30721us]

18z GFS is the first run to actually somewhat join the Euro runs with the threat for a period of wintry weather Saturday into Sunday.Let's see if this was just a blip or if we can get the 00z runs to follow suit.

[raindancewx]

It's really dried out here - still quite cold though. Avg high to date is 39.5F in Jan for ABQ right now - normal is more like 45-46F for early January. Angel Fire dropped into the -30s this morning...which is crazy.

 

Highs needs to avg ~51.7F for the rest of the month for the city to reach ~47.4F which is the 1932-2015 Jan avg high.

 

We may be having a top-ten January for cold highs here. Accuweather implies we avg ~41.7F for the monthly high.

 

Snow is like a heat shield here, and it's self-reinforcing. Roswell has had a "snowpack" for two+ weeks.

 

Long term avg winter high is 49.5F. We're at 45.0F for our average winter high to date, 42 days into winter, so 2.5F below normal for Dec+early Jan. Will be interesting to see if February remains cold. I think it will, as will the Spring.

 

Likely 2-4F below normal for the winter here.

[bubba hotep]

It is becoming obvious that the models can't handle the current pattern beyond a few days and that the warmer dryer runs are the ones to bet on.

[aggiegeog]

The set up for Saturday looks almost ideal for big snow potential across northern Texas. We have An Arctic intrusion followed by a vigorous shortwave with STJ support. As always it will be about timing. The following storm also has some potential but it looks weaker and may not have enough cold by the time it arrives.