Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

An interesting trend to watch, the Para Euro has juiced the Tue/Wed system up to around 1.5" for DFW. While the Op Euro is closer to 0.5" and the GFS is even less than that. Is the Para Euro out to lunch or will we see a late swing towards it from the other models over the next 24 hrs. Maybe this will be the start of a trend of systems coming in with more precipitation than modeled? That combined with the cold could make for some fun times. 

[Quixotic1]

I'll take NW systems over SW. It's typically more widespread and the column is colder for SN rather than IP.

[bubba hotep]

So did anyone really look at the crazy that was the 18z GFS? It keeps DFW below 20F from 18z on the 16th until 18z on the 20th! That would be 96 hrs below 20... Anyone know what the record is for that?

[bubba hotep]

I'll take NW systems over SW. It's typically more widespread and the column is colder for SN rather than IP.

 

I like them both We've had some nice unexpected snows from NW flow systems over the past few years. One even had thunder snow when there wasn't anything forecasted.

[Quixotic1]

So did anyone really look at the crazy that was the 18z GFS? It keeps DFW below 20F from 18z on the 16th until 18z on the 20th! That would be 96 hrs below 20... Anyone know what the record is for that?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=TX&stationID=03927&_target2=Next+%253E

Check the local climate publications. You'll have to play with it. 1983 December 21 - 26 was below 20 at dfw nonstop. Some other dates I'd check are January/Feb 49 ( I think) and 30 or 31 ( I think January into Feb). He'll even 89 might have a string (December) and if you can find it ( February of 1899)). It takes some finagling because they changed the stations quite a bit.

[Quixotic1]

I like them both We've had some nice unexpected snows from NW flow systems over the past few years. One even had thunder snow when there wasn't anything forecasted.

Yeah the infrequency and tendency to underestimate the impulse. They come in from the mountains and cycle up. Get the cold. The impulses will take care of themselves.

[aggiegeog]

Made it down to 26 this morning after a low of 28 yesterday and this is without the ideal atmospheric set up for cold. I expect we easily get multiple hard freezes next week.

[DFWWeather]

So, it appears that DFW has again failed to fall below 30°F. Thus, it looks like a new record will be set this year as being the latest on record to do this. The record for latest occurrence is January 8, 1932. This winter is looking a lot like the 1931-32 winter for our area. The next opportunity to fall below 30°F, will be Sunday night or Monday night next week. However, based on the latest model data and potential for cloud cover, we may hang up at 30°F yet again. The cold air for next week seems be less on this morning's 0z run of the models. While the pattern may be ripe to deliver cold air, the cold doesn't look all that impressive up north in the source regions either. Noticed Weatherbell is going for 5 below normal for January for DFW. It is going to take at least one or two mornings with low temperatures in the teens to outdo the warm anomalies to get us that cold. I don't see that coming, and the cold next week looks to be progressive as the end of January looks to warm up.

[aggiegeog]

So, it appears that DFW has again failed to fall below 30°F. Thus, it looks like a new record will be set this year as being the latest on record to do this. The record for latest occurrence is January 8, 1932. This winter is looking a lot like the 1931-32 winter for our area. The next opportunity to fall below 30°F, will be Sunday night or Monday night next week. However, based on the latest model data and potential for cloud cover, we may hang up at 30°F yet again. The cold air for next week seems be less on this morning's 0z run of the models. While the pattern may be ripe to deliver cold air, the cold doesn't look all that impressive up north in the source regions either. Noticed Weatherbell is going for 5 below normal for January for DFW. It is going to take at least two or three mornings with low temperatures in the teens to outdo the warm anomalies to get us that cold. I don't see that coming, and the cold next week looks to be progressive as the end of January looks to warm up.

The models are likely to be significantly too warm for next week with lows unless every night has cloud cover. If that is the case then days will struggle to reach the mid 30s which will lower the average temps by a good bit. Both the GEM and GFS are now showing light snow for northern Texas on Monday with temps in the 30s. A blanket of snow will allow for temps to stay even colder.

[DFWWeather]

The models are likely to be significantly too warm for next week with lows unless every night has cloud cover. If that is the case then days will struggle to reach the mid 30s which will lower the average temps by a good bit. Both the GEM and GFS are now showing light snow for northern Texas on Monday with temps in the 30s. A blanket of snow will allow for temps to stay even colder.

 

Yes, but even so, I don't see it holding us at 5 below normal for the month of January unless we can get some real January cold into the area. I'm not impressed yet with the prospects of any precipitation next week based on what I see, it looks too dry.

[aggiegeog]

Yes, but even so, I don't see it holding us at 5 below normal for the month of January unless we can get some real January cold into the area. I'm not impressed yet with the prospects of any precipitation next week based on what I see, it looks too dry.

Likely would just be flurries to an inch  a couple times next week unless the STJ gets involved if that happens all bets are off. Agreed that 5 below for the month is not easy, but highs in the 35-45 range will offset lows near freezing. All will depend on how transient this blocking is and just how warm it gets after the blocking ends, a week of 40-55 days or will it be 10 days of general 50-65 days.

[bubba hotep]

Yes, but even so, I don't see it holding us at 5 below normal for the month of January unless we can get some real January cold into the area. I'm not impressed yet with the prospects of any precipitation next week based on what I see, it looks too dry.

I tend to agree with this. It looks like our best chance sits with a disturbance that is still way out over the N. Pacific that should slide through in about a week. The only bright spot that I see is that none of these cold blast appear to really scour out moisture over the Gulf. This could allow for a quick return of moisture, if a stronger system were to come through before we lose the best of the cold air.

[ams30721us]

Still think the disturbance next Monday/Tuesday could bring us some light wintry weather in some form.

12z Euro brings some light snow across most of north Texas then. The orientation continues to change but the disturbance looks to produce at least some moisture.

[bubba hotep]

Still think the disturbance next Monday/Tuesday could bring us some light wintry weather in some form.

12z Euro brings some light snow across most of north Texas then. The orientation continues to change but the disturbance looks to produce at least some moisture.

The models have been keying on that time frame for a bit now but it's hard to tell if the models have been "seeing" the same disturbance or not. It hasn't been consistent but varying runs of the Euro/Para Euro and GFS have had something in that window. Also, the 12z Euro EPS had a nice "snow" cluster around then.

Hard to get excited about a s/w getting absorbed into the base of that Great Lakes trough but it's all we got right now However, the period out beyond D10 is starting to look interesting with the models consolidating a more potent looking batch of energy in the SW. How and when that kicks out and what cold will be left??

[bubba hotep]

Another great AFD from FWD and it doesn't even really get into the threat for next Monday. Here is what it does say:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE UPPER

TROUGH...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON AND OFF SHOWING SOME ENHANCED

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE

TROUGHS...LEADING TO MODEL OUTPUT OF QPF OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF

TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONSISTENCY

ON MONDAY TO GO AHEAD AND INSERT A 20 POP ACROSS THE REGION AT

THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START OFF MONDAY MORNING WELL BELOW

FREEZING...AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY

MORNING. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME... BUT

WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY

MORNING AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WINTRY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. WILL NOT GO INTO

ALL OF THE POSSIBILITIES AND COMPLICATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT

THERE ARE MANY.

FOR NOW THIS IS THE REASONABLE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES:

WORST CASE SCENARIO: PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEP. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WOULD BE

LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO: THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR

PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND ON MONDAY. WE SIMPLY STAY COLD AND

CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AT THIS TIME THE LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY TO

VERIFY...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY

PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS

SYSTEM AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH IMPACT WINTER

WEATHER/BIG ACCUMULATIONS DO AT LEAST LOOK VERY UNLIKELY.

[David Reimer]

Another great AFD from FWD and it doesn't even really get into the threat for next Monday. Here is what it does say:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE UPPER

TROUGH...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON AND OFF SHOWING SOME ENHANCED

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE

TROUGHS...LEADING TO MODEL OUTPUT OF QPF OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF

TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONSISTENCY

ON MONDAY TO GO AHEAD AND INSERT A 20 POP ACROSS THE REGION AT

THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START OFF MONDAY MORNING WELL BELOW

FREEZING...AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY

MORNING. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME... BUT

WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY

MORNING AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WINTRY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. WILL NOT GO INTO

ALL OF THE POSSIBILITIES AND COMPLICATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT

THERE ARE MANY.

FOR NOW THIS IS THE REASONABLE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES:

WORST CASE SCENARIO: PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEP. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WOULD BE

LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO: THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR

PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND ON MONDAY. WE SIMPLY STAY COLD AND

CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AT THIS TIME THE LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY TO

VERIFY...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY

PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS

SYSTEM AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH IMPACT WINTER

WEATHER/BIG ACCUMULATIONS DO AT LEAST LOOK VERY UNLIKELY.

 

That was the second to last AFD from Cavanaugh at FWD too. Tomorrow morning will be his final AFD as a forecaster at the FWD Office. He becomes the WCM at Little Rock on Monday. I'm sad I won't get to work with him as much since he'll be out of Texas. Folks in the Little Rock CWA are in for a treat though and are lucky to have such a great guy coming in. 

[Quixotic1]

That was the second to last AFD from Cavanaugh at FWD too. Tomorrow morning will be his final AFD as a forecaster at the FWD Office. He becomes the WCM at Little Rock on Monday. I'm sad I won't get to work with him as much since he'll be out of Texas. Folks in the Little Rock CWA are in for a treat though and are lucky to have such a great guy coming in. 

 

He will be missed.  He's got a knack for making AFDs interesting and instructional without being boring.  

[DFWWeather]

Another great AFD from FWD and it doesn't even really get into the threat for next Monday. Here is what it does say:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE UPPER

TROUGH...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON AND OFF SHOWING SOME ENHANCED

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE

TROUGHS...LEADING TO MODEL OUTPUT OF QPF OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF

TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONSISTENCY

ON MONDAY TO GO AHEAD AND INSERT A 20 POP ACROSS THE REGION AT

THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START OFF MONDAY MORNING WELL BELOW

FREEZING...AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY

MORNING. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME... BUT

WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY

MORNING AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WINTRY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. WILL NOT GO INTO

ALL OF THE POSSIBILITIES AND COMPLICATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT

THERE ARE MANY.

FOR NOW THIS IS THE REASONABLE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES:

WORST CASE SCENARIO: PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEP. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WOULD BE

LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO: THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR

PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND ON MONDAY. WE SIMPLY STAY COLD AND

CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AT THIS TIME THE LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY TO

VERIFY...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY

PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS

SYSTEM AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH IMPACT WINTER

WEATHER/BIG ACCUMULATIONS DO AT LEAST LOOK VERY UNLIKELY.

 

 

There has been a lot of hype about potential for snow next week in or around DFW from various sources.

 

I'm still not impressed with the setup next week for significant snow at DFW. For one the disturbance doesn't look all that strong. Second, the upper air pattern is not conducive to getting enough substantial moisture into the area to support a significant event. In fact, the pattern next week is not one that has historically produced big snowfall for our area. Having said that, I'm not saying it won't snow, but there are a lot of problems with next week's event. Another thing is getting the surface to be cold enough. There is going to be a lot of cloud cover and today's MOS run is the first to really suggest temperatures in the 20s, and I'm still very cautious that it can get that cold. Though this is our best opportunity yet this winter to fall below the 30°F mark  For those wanting a big snow event, I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed. Hopefully, I'm wrong, as I'm the first to advocate for snow and want it as bad as anybody - lol! However, anything thing more than flurries to light snow is about it for the event as I see it now. Getting it to stick, another matter entirely. Even then, the odds of snowfall still are quite low at this point as mentioned in the AFD (I personally wouldn't have gone with 20 POPs at this juncture).

[aggiegeog]

That was the second to last AFD from Cavanaugh at FWD too. Tomorrow morning will be his final AFD as a forecaster at the FWD Office. He becomes the WCM at Little Rock on Monday. I'm sad I won't get to work with him as much since he'll be out of Texas. Folks in the Little Rock CWA are in for a treat though and are lucky to have such a great guy coming in. 

They sure are lucky to have him. 

[aggiegeog]

There has been a lot of hype about potential for snow next week in or around DFW from various sources.

 

I'm still not impressed with the setup next week for significant snow at DFW. For one the disturbance doesn't look all that strong. Second, the upper air pattern is not conducive to getting enough substantial moisture into the area to support a significant event. In fact, the pattern next week is not one that has historically produced big snowfall for our area. Having said that, I'm not saying it won't snow, but there are a lot of problems with next week's event. Another thing is getting the surface to be cold enough. There is going to be a lot of cloud cover and today's MOS run is the first to really suggest temperatures in the 20s, and I'm still very cautious that it can get that cold. Though this is our best opportunity yet this winter to fall below the 30°F mark  For those wanting a big snow event, I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed. Hopefully, I'm wrong, as I'm the first to advocate for snow and want it as bad as anybody - lol! However, anything thing more than flurries to light snow is about it for the event as I see it now. Getting it to stick, another matter entirely. Even then, the odds of snowfall still are quite low at this point as mentioned in the AFD (I personally wouldn't have gone with 20 POPs at this juncture).

I think wit the Euro on board and GEM and GFS showing it off and on you have to give it credence. I have not seen anything indicating it will be more an a flurry to an inch with an isolated 2 inch possible. Temps will be close but I think north of I-20 will be cold enough just a matter of if we will have enough moisture to generate flakes.

[wxmx]

Canadian air masses in a El Niño are usually not as cold, since the source region is usually flooded with Pacific air. For real cold air we need polar crossflow air masses, and for that we need either the EPO or AO to go strongly negative. As Don S has alluded in the main forum, we are headed for a very negative AO spell.

 

[Quixotic1]

I saw the -40 isotherm down into the southern Canada on the GFS (00z) way on down the line.  

[bubba hotep]

I think wit the Euro on board and GEM and GFS showing it off and on you have to give it credence. I have not seen anything indicating it will be more an a flurry to an inch with an isolated 2 inch possible. Temps will be close but I think north of I-20 will be cold enough just a matter of if we will have enough moisture to generate flakes.

Yea, I'm not seeing anyone on here "hyping" this event and the discussion has been more that we might see something. It is hard to get moisture return in this general setup but we typically see it colder alfot with better ratios, if the surface will play along (I think it will). Having said that, the 12z GFS had some subtle but significant changes at H5 for this event.

[bubba hotep]

Canadian air masses in a El Niño are usually not as cold, since the source region is usually flooded with Pacific air. For real cold air we need polar crossflow air masses, and for that we need either the EPO or AO to go strongly negative. As Don S has alluded in the main forum, we are headed for a very negative AO spell.

What are your thoughts on this? The models seem to be indicating that we will see lower heights move farther east up into Alaska as the GoA low gets cranking. This looks to really hamper the ability for any significant cold to build even as the AO is crashing.

[wxmx]

What are your thoughts on this? The models seem to be indicating that we will see lower heights move farther east up into Alaska as the GoA low gets cranking. This looks to really hamper the ability for any significant cold to build even as the AO is crashing.

Yeah, the -EPO is usually much more effective than the -AO to get the motherlode arctic cold in our region. That being said, if enough cold air can dam in Canada, a -AO/El Niño combo can help create a favorable pattern down the road for snow, with AN heights in Can/Nern CONUS, and a strong jet with embedded pieces of energy in the south. Depending on how much arctic air gets dislodged is how far south the wintry threat can materialize.

 

I'm thinking the northern portion of our region (most of NM and N TX) can benefit from around the 10th to the 22nd or so, and then a bit more extensive area the last week of January and potentially into early February.

[aggiegeog]

Canadian air masses in a El Niño are usually not as cold, since the source region is usually flooded with Pacific air. For real cold air we need polar crossflow air masses, and for that we need either the EPO or AO to go strongly negative. As Don S has alluded in the main forum, we are headed for a very negative AO spell.

This is why the 15th is a good target for a more significant event if the STJ can get involved.

[aggiegeog]

For next week we will have a --AO, -NAO, -EPO and =PNA. Ignoring model runs except for this would lead me to say we are looking at a epic upcoming week or two. For some reason the models are not showing that.

[wxmx]

For next week we will have a --AO, -NAO, -EPO and =PNA. Ignoring model runs except for this would lead me to say we are looking at a epic upcoming week or two. For some reason the models are not showing that.

It's a bit puzzling that the pattern screams cold to frigid conditions, but the models are pretty tame with near surface temps. Looking at the N Hemisphere, there's no real much below normal temps anywhere, other than Europe. It's certainly not very exciting for our region in model land. I'm thinking that by the end of week 2, there will be a much better cold air reservoir from which the mid/upper level pattern can tap from.

[Srain]

It's a bit puzzling that the pattern screams cold to frigid conditions, but the models are pretty tame with near surface temps. Looking at the N Hemisphere, there's no real much below normal temps anywhere, other than Europe. It's certainly not very exciting for our region in model land. I'm thinking that by the end of week 2, there will be a much better cold air reservoir from which the mid/upper level pattern can tap from.

The afternoon updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs are a nice fit for past stronger El Nino winters across our Region.

[bubba hotep]

The afternoon updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs are a nice fit for past stronger El Nino winters across our Region.

A whole lot of '98 on that list... -AO/+EPO January torch.