Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[DoctorMu]

27.15 in of rain IMBY since October 21.

[bubba hotep]

Bleh...

[Quixotic1]

Bleh...

I know.

We need some cold.

We've done pretty well here the last 10 years. 05-06 was a complete disaster. 11-12 was awful. The rest of the years gave us some interesting events. This year needs a big time flip. Indices look nice FWIW.

[raindancewx]

Looks to me like the PDO+ weakened a bit more in December, should be way cooler than last year. AMO warmer by North America colder elsewhere in the basin. We'll have to see what the ESRL AMO and the JISAO PDO come out to. 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Looks to me like the PDO+ weakened a bit more in December, should be way cooler than last year. AMO warmer by North America colder elsewhere in the basin. We'll have to see what the ESRL AMO and the JISAO PDO come out to. 

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see if the PDO continues to decline or if it rebounds as El Nino starts to fade. Obviously, the PDO/AMO will play a big role in what happens across Texas post El Nino. Will we slip back into drought or will we get a favorable coupling that allows Texas to avoid crippling drought? The rate of decline with this El Nino has been slower than I expected but what do I know  Also, it is still crazy to me how much warmer '97 was in the eastern areas:

 

 

Oh, and this is kind of what I've been thinking for the period from the 10th - 15th, maybe a little fast but that is over 1/3" liquid falling at DFW with a nice temp profile throughout the column

 

Someone had to post it!  

[ams30721us]

 

In all seriousness, I do agree. I think the overall pattern is in agreement from all guidance sources, of a trough shifting from the west through the central and east part of the country during that Jan 10-20 period. All guidance also seems  to agree on an active STJ sticking around during this time. 

 

Right now, most models are locking in on 3 main systems the around this time. The first, will no doubt be a rain track for all during the Jan 7-9 time frame (late next week)....The second system has the potential to bring some wintry weather to North Texas around the 10-13 time frame. The more widespread potential I think arrives with the 3rd system, around the 17-20 time frame. Either way, January looks a lot more on the wintry side, then torchy side. Fun days ahead! 

[ams30721us]

hmmm...yep, needless to say the period from Jan 10th-20th looks to be very interesting! Of course, the devils will be in the details in the days to come.

[bubba hotep]

hmmm...yep, needless to say the period from Jan 10th-20th looks to be very interesting! Of course, the devils will be in the details in the days to come.

 

 

Yep, the timing of the impulses will play a big role. Too close together and no chance for moisture return, too far apart and we warm up too much in between. The 12z Para Euro vs Euro demonstrated some of the possibilities, it looks like the Euro holds energy back in the SW keeping it positive tilted as it gets absorbed into the base of the trough. The Para Euro is more progressive but cuts some energy off and goes negative as it kicks out. The Euro is dryer with really no major winter threat and the Para Euro is juiced up and just misses a big winter storm for N. Texas. A bit slower and more southerly version of the 12z Para Euro could be money for DFW. 

[raindancewx]

Next two weeks are probably the best shot for big storms in the SW until Feb. January is almost always quieter than December if December is active out here.

 

I'm wondering if we'll have a cold winter here - I'd say AZ has been cold so far but not NM. El Nino is really an "average" signal here for winter temps - in 2015, Oct, Nov, Dec highs were all within 1F in ABQ of the 1931-2014 average high temps. 

 

The snowfall and temperature impact scale Bastardi came up with for rating winter severity would put Albuquerque at about 6.4 in Dec - (7.2" snow Dec / 2.6" avg snow Dec)(2) + (0.9F below normal high). He did have us in the 4-8 range for the winter, but 3F below normal, implying maybe ~17" snow and a cold winter (17/9.6)(2)+(3). Not sure if we get to 3F below normal though (46.5F in D-F for highs - currently at 46.9F).

[bubba hotep]

Run-to-run consistency in the medium range is at an all time high across all models right now 

 

ETA: the cold signal is strong but the models have no clue to do with all the energy coming in

 

[bubba hotep]

This is just hard to wrap your head around, totally obliterating the record book in 2015:

 

 

[DFWWeather]

DFW Climatology: December 2015 second hottest on record behind 1933. Also, DFW has failed to fall below 30°F so far this year. If it does not do so by January 8th, it will be the latest on record. DFW has never had a winter go by without at least falling as low as 24°F. In other words, that is the warmest absolute low temperature for DFW in any winter. 

 

Having said the above, I'm liking the signals for significant Arctic air outbreak by next week into the middle of the month for much of the country. The rubber band looks to snap in a huge way. CMC and ECMWF 10-day 500 mb mean look darn cold. GFS seems quite confused (as always) but catching on somewhat.

 

Here is the latest 12z from today (brrr!):

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

NOAA has the PDO up slightly from Nov, but still much closer to neutral for Dec than last year. JISAO may yet show a drop, and that's the index I base my PDO stuff on.

[bubba hotep]

DFW Climatology: December 2015 second hottest on record behind 1933. Also, DFW has failed to fall below 30°F so far this year. If it does not do so by January 8th, it will be the latest on record. DFW has never had a winter go by without at least falling as low as 24°F. In other words, that is the warmest absolute low temperature for DFW in any winter. 

 

Having said the above, I'm liking the signals for significant Arctic air outbreak by next week into the middle of the month for much of the country. The rubber band looks to snap in a huge way. CMC and ECMWF 10-day 500 mb mean look darn cold. GFS seems quite confused (as always) but catching on somewhat.

 

Here is the latest 12z from today (brrr!):

 

 

 

DFW should come close to 30 tonight or tomorrow night but if those don't pan out then the record will get broken, since there looks to be a decent warm up mid week. It looks like the cold shot next weekend could get DFW into the 20s finally but a lot can change, esp. with the pattern we are in right now. The cold shot for the end of next week looks like the ones from the past few winters with the coldest air staying to the NE of Texas (when was the last time we had a major cold dump right down the spine of the Rockies into Texas?). On the bright side, I wouldn't be surprised to see an impulse come through next weekend or the first of next week with just enough energy to give DFW a shot at some winter weather. 

[bubba hotep]

NOAA has the PDO up slightly from Nov, but still much closer to neutral for Dec than last year. JISAO may yet show a drop, and that's the index I base my PDO stuff on.

 

AMO came in with a big negative and I wouldn't be surprised to see this carry on into the Summer. I've already seen some hype for next hurricane season but everyone knows what an -AMO does. Plus, a -AMO could keep Texas from slipping back into major drought next summer. 

 

[raindancewx]

I asked Klotzbach for his AMO index, one of these days I'm going to reclassify El Ninos by the AMO with his figures.

[DoctorMu]

This is just hard to wrap your head around, totally obliterating the record book in 2015:

 

 

 

Over 40% of CLL's rainfall came after October 21.  Dry early fall, wet late fall per El Nino...

[raindancewx]

Looks like 2015 precip is almost a perfect match of cold AMO, warm PDO composites from the last century.

 

 

[aggiegeog]

Next week looks like a classic Arctic blast for the majority of the nation Texas included. Plus the STJ looks to stay active and hopefully we see a significant storm to make all the cold worth it.

[bubba hotep]

Maybe time to close out this thread and start a new one for 2016, esp. since the first legit winter weather threat for DFW could be coming up. A couple of things from FWD to close out this year:

 

 

 

[DFWWeather]

Maybe time to close out this thread and start a new one for 2016, esp. since the first legit winter weather threat for DFW could be coming up. A couple of things from FWD to close out this year:

The lowest temperature for the year on that graphic is wrong. DFW was at 16 on Jan 8th not 20. I emailed them on that mistake. The F6 data on their page and the official data from NCDC both say the low was 16.

[aggiegeog]

Winter is coming starting around Tuesday of next week with a Great Lakes 500mb vortex setting up and an active STJ supplying moisture and potential for storms especially when the STJ phases with the Polar jet creating strong surface storms over the coast. I expect that the best winter precip chances will be over the eastern parts of the state with occasional light storms out of Mexico giving snow to the western portions of the state.

[Quixotic1]

 

A look at the DFW precip numbers:

 

117 samples since and there is one outlier:  2015

 

2015 was 3.25 SDs from the mean.  Wow.  

 

The probability of that much precipitation happening in one year based up on the records is 0.0006 or roughly every 1724 years. 

 

A truly monumental event and unlikely to be repeated in my lifetime.  

[bubba hotep]

precip.png

 

A look at the DFW precip numbers:

 

117 samples since and there is one outlier:  2015

 

2015 was 3.25 SDs from the mean.  Wow.  

 

The chances of that much precipitation happening in one year based up on the records is 0.0006% or roughly every 1724 years. 

 

A truly monumental event and unlikely to be repeated in my lifetime.  

 

Nice work. Also, DFW has gone over 47" three times in the past 11 years. 

[Quixotic1]

Nice work. Also, DFW has gone over 47" three times in the past 11 years.

Thanks! I need to remove that percent sign.

Looking at the timeline you posted earlier, it does seem like the wetter extremes happen more recently.

Going to try the same thing with snow but I'm not looking for much success. Too many "T" years that I have to mark as 0.01 or 0.0.

[bubba hotep]

12z runs today were kind of "bleh" unless you like cold and dry. The overall pattern still suggest that DFW could see a couple of minor winter weather events but that is about it. Also, these upcoming cold shots might be our best chance for a while, since it looks like the pattern kind of resets back to what it was in Dec. That could keep us wet but not sure if there will be enough cold air to take advantage of that? 

[Roy]

Ugh. Come on, snow.

[bubba hotep]

Lol, 18z GFS is coming in jacked up 

[aggiegeog]

Ugh. Come on, snow.

I fully am expecting at least one and maybe as many as three minor snow events for northern Texas next week. The first chance will come Saturday night behind the initial blast of Arctic air if any moisture remains. Then another around next Tuesday and likely another late next week. I expect these to be widespread but light events as these events will be driven by small NW flow impulses though with our very moisture laden STJ amounts could be more significant than currently expected. 

[bubba hotep]

Lol, 18z GFS is coming in jacked up 

 

One interesting thing, I always looked for snow over N. Texas when I lived in DC. That was always a good sign and it seems like a lot of the big ones kind of have that Texas to Mid-Atlantic foot print.