Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

I'm glad I got my snow fix a couple of weeks ago in NM; otherwise, I might find myself staying up looking for some sleet or flakes! 

 

[Captmorg70]

I'll probably try to stay up for it. it shouldn't be, but you never know if it's our only chance this winter

[Captmorg70]

This is what the 0z Nam spit out. It's mainly sleet or a mix, but I'll have what the nam is having lol

[bubba hotep]

This is what the 0z Nam spit out. It's mainly sleet or a mix, but I'll have what the nam is having lol

 

I'll have some of that    

[Roy]

The 0Z 4K Nam is spitting out decent snowfall for FW on West. Also, if it verifies, it's going to be a huge bust over Kansas with most snow being pushed of to the east. They are still forecasting a big snow up there.

[bubba hotep]

The 0Z 4K Nam is spitting out decent snowfall for FW on West. Also, if it verifies, it's going to be a huge bust over Kansas with most snow being pushed of to the east. They are still forecasting a big snow up there.

 

Per WxBell, 8" jackpot just W of Ft. Worth. I'll bet anything that doesn't come close to verifying. 

[Roy]

I can't imagine it coming true. Just doesn't make any sense with the setup, a dry slot etc. But, cool if it does. Would require a major shift though.

[Captmorg70]

Yea the only way that happens is if the temps get colder pretty quick and/or everything keeps coming east a lot more before shifting north.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big eastward shift on the 21z SREF w/ about 10 members w/ accumulating snow at DFW. Not buying it but fun to think about 

[Captmorg70]

The hrrr is shifting east as well. This is latest run, it's been slowly shifting east every hour

[Roy]

I'm not getting hopeful for anything, in case we get anything more than flurries it will be a nice surprise. But, ICT just posted to FB they are now re-working their forecast to lower snowfall in KS. Means they may be going with a more east track possibly...they didn't explain why. Storm been a bust up there though.

[mfastx]

Drove from just south of downtown Houston to just north of 610 (about 6 miles) and the thermo on my car read 75 when I started and had dropped down to 57 by the end of the 15 min trip.  

[Captmorg70]

Yea that cold front is no joke when it comes through. I think most of us had a big drop like that yesterday too

[raindancewx]

That storm is big, tough, and slow. Some people in TX not expecting snow are going to get it.

[DoctorMu]

That storm is big, tough, and slow. Some people in TX not expecting snow are going to get it.

 

 

Wrap around snow has been licking the heels of Round Rock/Austin and Killeen/Copperas Cove.  Sucked in a little too much dry air and the low is starting to slip north.  There was the slimmest of hope for a snow miracle in College Station, but that would be too much those for.

[Quixotic1]

Flakes mixing in with the rain here in downtown Dallas.

[jm1220]

Hail (marble size) on the SW side of Austin this evening. Enough to cover the ground.

[LovingGulfLows]

I find it crazy Dallas area literally had severe storms and tornados a little more than day ago and now will end with about an inch or so of snow. What a storm.

[cheese007]

Already a nice dusting here in west central Collin

[Roy]

Nothing in North Fort Worth...darn. A lot just 20 miles northwest.

[bubba hotep]

So on to the next one! Based on the MJO and some other things, it looks like the 10th - 15th might be the timeframe of our next big system. Maybe a better chance of widespread winter weather for DFW with that?

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

Out of curiosity, I drove through a hailstorm in Corsicana yesterday, when the ambient temperature was 47 degrees. How is that possible? Is it because of a particularly warm layer aloft?

[aggiegeog]

Watch tomorrow night for flurries and watch this weekend for a potential overrunning event.

[raindancewx]

The Weatherbell guys think January-March 2015 will be like early 1958, 1966, 1987, 1988, 2007.

 

Some pretty cold years here in TX, CO and the SW. Albuquerque had 9.6" of snow in January-May of those years. The analogs they use more or less fit with my idea of a cold spring in TX and the SW too. My weather analogs which have worked very well for Albuquerque for both temps and snowfall so far, showed 7.9" of snow in January to May 2016. The Weatherbell years imply one month from Jan-Apr will have five inches of snow in Albuquerque, while the analogs working for me imply one month will have six inches of snow in Albuquerque. All in all..still looks promising for the SW over the next few months.

 

[Quixotic1]

Out of curiosity, I drove through a hailstorm in Corsicana yesterday, when the ambient temperature was 47 degrees. How is that possible? Is it because of a particularly warm layer aloft?

are you asking because the surface is too warm or too cold at 47?

[aslkahuna]

Actually, if the warm air aloft above is unstable enough above the low level cold air, you can get hail with temperatures WAY below 47F. In 1964, I saw 1/2 hail during a freezing rain event and a temperature in the 20's.

Steve

[bubba hotep]

Actually, if the warm air aloft above is unstable enough above the low level cold air, you can get hail with temperatures WAY below 47F. In 1964, I saw 1/2 hail during a freezing rain event and a temperature in the 20's.

Steve

 

Yea, I've been hailed on in the mountains with temps in the 30s, but the hail didn't have that far to fall. To answer his question, a lot goes into determining hail potential (look at the SHIP formula) and Sunday produced some nice hail around the area. 

[bubba hotep]

The Para Euro weeklies are in and every single member has accumulating snow at DFW over the next 45 days. The mean is 3" and a lot of members have some really nice totals. I'm still liking the Jan 10th - 15th time frame for N. Texas as the MJO moves through 7 & 8. Check out the phase maps here.

[ams30721us]

I haven't been following the models too closely the past few days, but models seem to be indicating a pretty decent over running setup, especially across our southern areas. Right now, most models are indicating the strong NE flow to usher in just enough dry air to keep any measurable precip just across the south, but if we can get enough precip to over run that cold air in place, we could see a bit more of wintry mix show up on future model runs. At any rate, even now, models are hinting at spitting some light returns across the area. With a very active STJ, I'd watch this period from late Thursday night thru Saturday night for any improvements/changes. 

 

[aggiegeog]

After this weekend's potential overrunning event eyes shift to a modeled PV split for the second week of January along with an active STJ.