Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[raindancewx]

The most recent runs were a tiny bit slower/north but not much. Wind will likely be the main determinant in the city anyway, the east wind from the pass in the Sandias is a snow killer. Models have the wind out of the NE though which is not bad. I do think we quiet down a lot in late Jan to late Feb before the real fireworks begin late Feb to May so hope we get a lot of snow in the next three weeks. 

 

Oh...and enjoy your epic rains in Texas before we flip back to Nina and the bad PDO (neg)

[aggiegeog]

Looks like the building consensus is for the upper low to cross northern Mexico and generate a surface low near Brownsville late Sunday while the upper low is over Big Bend. The upper low looks to track almost due east across northern Central Texas before turning NE Monday morning while the surface low heads NNE up the coast and through E TX. West and NW TX look very snowy with blizzard conditions possible. N TX west of I-35 looks like rain changing to snow with near blizzard conditions Sunday night. N TX east of I-35 and NE TX look very wet with a possible change to light snow Monday morning if precip hangs around long enough. Central and SE TX look stormy this weekend.

[bubba hotep]

The gradual creep east continues with the 12z runs. If that continues and the cold air comes in faster... DFW?

[1900hurricane]

It's abundantly clear that this is going to be a moisture loaded system. Barring the location of a dry slot, there will likely be rain heavy enough to cause at least some minor flooding in spots on each side of the front. Places that see the rainfall on both sides could easily end up seeing more than just minor flooding. Warm sector damaging winds could also be an issue, and possibly some tornadoes too if wind profiles avoid being completely unidirectional. Still think rainfall could be the biggest story, even more than the winter side possibly. WPC QPF totals keep going up with each update.

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[raindancewx]

Blizzard and winter storm watches are out. I don't think I've ever seen a blizzard watch issued in New Mexico, so should be fun on the eastern side of the state.

[raindancewx]

NWS thinks Albuquerque could get 5-8 inches of snow with this storm if the wind dies down. I do think it dies down but I probably would have gone with 2-6+, i.e. 2-6 for most of the city, and over 6 above the 5800 feet. Very rare for the core of the city to get more than four inches of snow in any set up

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGz4-6IBYeg

[Srain]

This storm system reminds me of the Christmas Blizzard of 1997 particularly for Roswell and Ruidoso. We left Christmas night driving straight through to Ruidoso/Ski Apache. Once we were N of Carlsbad snow drifts exceeded 10 to 12 Feet. Ruidoso and Roswell experienced between 24 to 31 inches of snow. Ruidoso was literally buried and it took 2 days to clear the road to Ski Apache.

[raindancewx]

Would you say this is maybe a bit north of that storm? The records I can find for Dec 1997 show no snow in ABQ, Clovis, etc on Christmas, but they have snow in Roswell and places further south. My hunch is this storm will be an efficient snow maker even with the wind and that it has a lot of moisture to work with for a cold storm.

[Chinook]

snow totals on/before Dec 25 1997- quite a storm for eastern New Mexico

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/72HR/1997/19971225_072_pttotal.png

[jm1220]

Would you say this is maybe a bit north of that storm? The records I can find for Dec 1997 show no snow in ABQ, Clovis, etc on Christmas, but they have snow in Roswell and places further south. My hunch is this storm will be an efficient snow maker even with the wind and that it has a lot of moisture to work with for a cold storm.

This is a good site for looking up past storms:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us1226.php

 

Looks like the trough and upper low will be stronger and dig more than that one did. 

[raindancewx]

Our storms keep over-performing here, I don't know if this one will though. I think the northern extent of the main precip band is likely to be about Santa Fe. The system is probably far enough south to pick up a boatload of moisture from the Gulf of California. The GFS/Canadian show something like ~0.3" to 0.5" inches of precipitation falling in Albuquerque. I figure that amount at ~15:1 roughly for ABQ given the NAM is showing temps of 20-28F for most of the event. The math would work out to 4.5" - 7.5", which is probably where the ABQ NWS early guess of 5-8" comes from. Weather Channel has <1" Sat, 3-5" Sat Night, and 1-3" Sun, which is also consistent with 4"-8".

 

I just wonder if maybe we get 0.6" to 0.8" if the storm is bit north of where it is expected and/or slower/moister. It seems if it slows or moves north it can pull a ton of moisture from the Gulf of California before it arrives given how sturdy the low is going to be.

[DoctorMu]

Check out the freezing line and a surprise in extended forecast fantasyland:

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=prateptypegfs&rh=2015122406&fh=360&r=sc&dpdt=

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Kids are in bed waiting on Santa Claus and the 00z GFS delivers! Snow now showing up in western Tarrant County, the slow steady march eastward continues. 

 

[raindancewx]

GFS has virtually nothing for northern NM now which is odd to me. The NAM still looks pretty decent for us though. Still think there is one last second shift in the track - either timing or direction - that won't show up until tomorrow afternoon or so.

[cheese007]

Kids are in bed waiting on Santa Claus and the 00z GFS delivers! Snow now showing up in western Tarrant County, the slow steady march eastward continues.

Maybe I'm reading that graph wrong but that says the forecast is valid for next Friday?

[DoctorMu]

Kids are in bed waiting on Santa Claus and the 00z GFS delivers! Snow now showing up in western Tarrant County, the slow steady march eastward continues. 

 

 

All the way to Hearne!  

 

Bring on the Blitzkrieg just a little farther S and E.  

 

Yes, that's next Friday. 

[raindancewx]

The NAM is showing the northward drift I thought would come at the last second...but the NAM is kind of insane sometimes. Which track do you folks think is more realistic?

 

[jm1220]

The NAM is showing the northward drift I thought would come at the last second...but the NAM is kind of insane sometimes. Which track do you folks think is more realistic?

 

The NAM is awful, at pretty much any range. Follow some of the Northeast discussion threads on it when snowstorms come. I would trust the other models over it any day. 

[raindancewx]

My experience with the NAM in this area is it gets timing and precip areal trends right it just massively exaggerates precip totals. GFS tends to get timing right but track wrong and is ok on precip totals, Euro tends to get track right, but timing wrong, but is good on precip totals. 

 

The Euro also now looks like it's come up a bit north. I just get annoyed seeing 1" and 12" forecasts from different models within two days of an event. The topography is complicated here from a physics standpoint but you'd think it'd be solvable statistically.

[cheese007]

Looks like everything is caving to the more westward Euro solution

[Roy]

I am in Abilene thinking we would get 10 inches. With the trend, two may push it....it's getting close.

[Jebman]

Bigger story is snow/wind in far west TX.

 

Austin will get off easy with highly progressive line of convection. Dry slotting will shut off rain and any snow before we end up with flood concerns. In fact in some spots, pavement will barely get wet.

 

Dallas and northeast Texas are going to get waterboarded this weekend by torrential rains.

Note all the flood watches well north of Austin, and no watches in or near Austin. NWS Dallas Ft Worth has a sweet breakdown of Round 1 and Round 2 on their NWS Page http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/ Click on Weather Timeline. For all you snow enthusiasts in N TX, I wish you lots of snow! I dont mind missing that, but I AM JEALOUS of all of the heavy rains you will get! Austin's NWS page has no such fanfare, as all we will get there is a thin anemic line of showers as the front whips thru, then dryslot and much cooler and breezy.

As much as people have been hyping how FAR SOUTH this system has been digging!!!!!! Austin/Buda STILL end up with minimal rains, and not even a cursory watch!!!!!! How's THAT for coal in the proverbial Christmas stocking?!!!!

Austin is too far south for heavy rain, even with this system that is digging SO FAR SOUTH!!!!!!!

 

if you dont like snow and wind and love fast moving rain showers/short lived weather systems marked by strong dryslotting - move to Austin.

 

There's a good reason people are moving here in droves. West Texas gets too much snow. East Texas gets too much rain.

 

Austin is right in the middle. We'll be enjoying our holiday while West Texans flounder in 12 foot snowdrifts and East Texans scream for emergency airlifts amid hundreds of frantic water rescues. Ditto for Houston and the coastal communities. I forecast only a half inch of rain here (in Buda). Welcome to the Southwest.

 

Austin will get off very easy, just a fast moving line of thundershowers Saturday night, then a small amount of rain followed by stout dryslotting and much cooler. Most of the action will be west and north, and later in East Texas and Louisiana, and points northeast as the low starts picking up speed and jets toward the Great Lakes.

 

 

Nothing to write home about in Austin YAAAAAAAAWWWWNNNNN.

Models are speeding up the system, it will be very progressive. For Austin, much brouhaha about, well, nothing much. It makes perfect sense that I should get coal for Christmas in the form of not much rain. Story of my entire life.......

[DoctorMu]

Que?  Floods around Austin in October were far worse than CLL and NW Houston.

 

 

Very few tornados I can remember around Austin - that's a big advantage.  Hurricanes nonexistent.

[PelicanGuy]

Well, New Orleans officially has recorded the warmest Christmas Day on record with 82 degrees. That shatters the old record of 78 set in 2008. 

[jm1220]

Que? Floods around Austin in October were far worse than CLL and NW Houston.

Very few tornados I can remember around Austin - that's a big advantage. Hurricanes nonexistent.

You should have been here when the airport had to close for almost a full day from flooding, or when several creeks here that pass through very populated areas had top 3 crests, or when Buda (Jebman's adopted hometown) had 17" of rain in a few hours, a few miles south of the airport on Halloween, yet "El Ninos have no big impacts down here, they always hit Dallas harder, or Houston, that's why we have smallish, twisted trees". Not to mention Memorial Day weekend when historic flooding cut through the western half of Downtown Austin, when those creek beds had up to 10" of rain.

Seriously, he's clueless. It's been tremendously active here, and tomorrow night will likely be active as well.

[DoctorMu]

You should have been here when the airport had to close for almost a full day from flooding, or when several creeks here that pass through very populated areas had top 3 crests, or when Buda (Jebman's adopted hometown) had 17" of rain in a few hours, a few miles south of the airport on Halloween, yet "El Ninos have no big impacts down here, they always hit Dallas harder, or Houston, that's why we have smallish, twisted trees". Not to mention Memorial Day weekend when historic flooding cut through the western half of Downtown Austin, when those creek beds had up to 10" of rain.

Seriously, he's clueless. It's been tremendously active here, and tomorrow night will likely be active as well.

 

LBJ helped to fund the building of many of the dams on the Colorado and other hill country rivers to reduce flooding to the homestead 

 

http://laketravislifestyle.com/lake-travis-area-history-mansfield-dam-and-lake-travis/

[aggiegeog]

A big weather weekend ahead for the Southern Plains. This storm dropped snow in Las Vegas, NV and already near a foot in the northern NM mountains. Many from El Paso through western TX and western OK will see 6-18" of snow with high winds today and tomorrow. Severe storms east of there along with flooding rain. Maybe ending with flurries in N TX. After this storm we stay below average temp wise for a while so maybe El Nino will give us a couple little surprises before our next big one. The GEM us still showing a energy getting left out west for next weekend which could be intetesting, the Euro has some energy out there and the GFS does not leave any back there. The GFS has been poor lately so maybe there will be something to watch. Also some models have periodically shown a decent mid week shortwave which could sneak in some flurries for northern Texas.

[Jebman]

You should have been here when the airport had to close for almost a full day from flooding, or when several creeks here that pass through very populated areas had top 3 crests, or when Buda (Jebman's adopted hometown) had 17" of rain in a few hours, a few miles south of the airport on Halloween, yet "El Ninos have no big impacts down here, they always hit Dallas harder, or Houston, that's why we have smallish, twisted trees". Not to mention Memorial Day weekend when historic flooding cut through the western half of Downtown Austin, when those creek beds had up to 10" of rain.

Seriously, he's clueless. It's been tremendously active here, and tomorrow night will likely be active as well.

Latest AFD indicates a quarter inch of rain for Buda with this storm. I am not clueless about southwestern weather and climatology. Typically this region will get a big event like october 30. But most of the time, Austin gets small rainstorms.

 

We have been bombarded with how big and bad this upper level low is for a solid WEEK. West Texas is going to get 18 inches of snow. North Texas will get 8 inches and poor Trinity river communities will get flooded again. East Texas will get their share, probably about 4 to 10 inches of rain.

 

South Central Texas will get about a quarter inch of rain. READ THE LATEST AFD. The clue to our misfortune is in the watches. Not one single watch for Hays or Travis Counties. Thats because we will get the least rain in this entire region. Yeah, we are getting this BIG BAD anomalous upper level low!!! And sure enough, Buda gets next to NOTHING from it! What a LAUGH!

 

I expect our first drizzle from this big bad upper level low about 1am tomorrow morning. Til then, we get teased by cloudy skies.

 

This place is a damn joke. I can hardly wait to get out of this godforsaken state come Tuesday. I love Washington DC with all my heart. I HATED being in Texas. These people down here still believe in 1950s era nonsense.

 

Northern Virginia is getting rain after rain. I bet by March 2016 south central Texas will have about a half inch of rain for the new year. This is one of the most accursed places on earth when it comes to rainfall. South Central Texas could get hit by the remnants of a Cat 5 hurricane and end up with a quarter inch of rain!

 

Next year will be a La Nina year, and Texas will end up very dry. I'll be in Virginia where we will at least get some rain, while Texas will end up like California with dried up lakes and people fighting for water.

 

Thank the universe it is only 76 more hours til I get to leave this dry nightmarish wasteland where we get very little rain!!!!

Washington DC is my true home. I never liked Texas, not even one little bit.

 

 

Probability of rain has  been lowered to only 70 percent for Buda for tonight and for Sunday morning. I am too far south of the main forcing.

 

It really does not matter where the upper level low is located. If it is coming off of the four corners, we get drizzle. If it is approaching the Big Bend region, we are still too far south of the main forcing. No matter where the storm is - Buda ends up with vanishingly small amounts of rain. Dallas however will get enough fresh rain for serious flooding and frantic water rescues.

[NTXYankee]

Very humid today, walking out on patio at 6:00 this morning felt like a spring day rather than day after Christmas. I see they put metroplex in enhanced risk and upped tornado probabilities. We get some sun mixed in and could make for an interesting afternoon and evening around here.

[cstrunk]

Latest AFD indicates a quarter inch of rain for Buda with this storm. I am not clueless about southwestern weather and climatology. Typically this region will get a big event like october 30. But most of the time, Austin gets small rainstorms.

 

We have been bombarded with how big and bad this upper level low is for a solid WEEK. West Texas is going to get 18 inches of snow. North Texas will get 8 inches and poor Trinity river communities will get flooded again. East Texas will get their share, probably about 4 to 10 inches of rain.

 

South Central Texas will get about a quarter inch of rain. READ THE LATEST AFD. The clue to our misfortune is in the watches. Not one single watch for Hays or Travis Counties. Thats because we will get the least rain in this entire region. Yeah, we are getting this BIG BAD anomalous upper level low!!! And sure enough, Buda gets next to NOTHING from it! What a LAUGH!

 

I expect our first drizzle from this big bad upper level low about 1am tomorrow morning. Til then, we get teased by cloudy skies.

 

This place is a damn joke. I can hardly wait to get out of this godforsaken state come Tuesday. I love Washington DC with all my heart. I HATED being in Texas. These people down here still believe in 1950s era nonsense.

 

Northern Virginia is getting rain after rain. I bet by March 2016 south central Texas will have about a half inch of rain for the new year. This is one of the most accursed places on earth when it comes to rainfall. South Central Texas could get hit by the remnants of a Cat 5 hurricane and end up with a quarter inch of rain!

 

Next year will be a La Nina year, and Texas will end up very dry. I'll be in Virginia where we will at least get some rain, while Texas will end up like California with dried up lakes and people fighting for water.

 

Thank the universe it is only 76 more hours til I get to leave this dry nightmarish wasteland where we get very little rain!!!!

Washington DC is my true home. I never liked Texas, not even one little bit.

Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.