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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Agree with you bubba. This monster Bering Sea storm does not look like it will deliver a significantly -EPO. It does look like it will kick off the breakdown of the PV, but that is a long process. Mid-Jan through mid-March looks to be the -AO period for this winter.

 

I wish I knew more about stratosphere weather and the disruption of the PV, not to be confused with the different PV in my other post. Every time I try to do some research on it I just start to veg out :lol: but it is impressive looking so far this winter

 

CVkXV1CXAAEoaQM.jpg

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Seemingly not a lot of talk about the severe weather potential in TX and OK today. Perhaps you guys aren't very impressed. The SPC has predicted a 2% tornado potential. The 4km NAM predicts a squall line moving through Texas tonight, mainly 06-12z. Of course, the model can't tell you how many severe weather reports will happen.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

As far as this winter looks going forward these are the years with the closest conditions in an El Nino to what was recently observed locally or in the Oceans.

 

Strong El Ninos DJF: 1940-41, 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98

Double El Ninos: 1940-41, 1941-42, 1958-59, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88

AMO in November: 1945-46, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1958-59, 2004-05, 2006-07

PDO in November: 1940-41, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1987-88, 1991-92, 1997-98

Monsoon in 2015: 1941-42, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1991-92, 1994-95

Aug+Oct Rain 2015: 1939-40, 1953-54, 1965-66, 1982-83, 1991-92, 2004-05

 

1991 (x4), 1940 (x3), 1972 (x3) are the best matches from the six categories. 

1941, 1953, 1958, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2004 are close (x2)

 

I use those categories as they are the six strongest predictors for snow I know of in El Nino. Active monsoons in El Ninos tend to come before big snow months. Aug+Oct rain vs. Oct-May snow looks like J-curve (further away from normal is good), ONI is a good predictor of moisture, the AMO is good for guessing whether Jan/Dec is the top month, and the PDO is good for guessing when in the season top months will come.

 

All in All,

I like Jan/March for the SW

I like a big month (8-10 inches?) for Albuquerque at some point

The analogs did have good snow in the SW in Oct/Nov which happened

1972 and 1991 had a lot of volcanic activity - we've had some fairly big eruptions this year too

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Seemingly not a lot of talk about the severe weather potential in TX and OK today. Perhaps you guys aren't very impressed. The SPC has predicted a 2% tornado potential. The 4km NAM predicts a squall line moving through Texas tonight, mainly 06-12z. Of course, the model can't tell you how many severe weather reports will happen.

  

Outside of 1900hurricane, we seem to be mostly snow/cold weenies in here :lol:  It looks like the biggest issue would be if any low topped supers can fire out ahead of the line. However, the HRRR and 4K NAM don't look to open up much of a break for that to happen. I can do without any severe weather with this batch, since there are still shingles in the trees and busted up fences around here from the last big storm back before the Thanksgiving flood. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Seemingly not a lot of talk about the severe weather potential in TX and OK today. Perhaps you guys aren't very impressed. The SPC has predicted a 2% tornado potential. The 4km NAM predicts a squall line moving through Texas tonight, mainly 06-12z. Of course, the model can't tell you how many severe weather reports will happen.

If the sun were out, I'd be more impressed. Plus the streamers off to the SE are probably going to suck some of the life out of things here.

Seriously, we love the severe stuff, but it rarely gets popping in here unless we get above "slight". As Others have said, we are snow starved.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Most of the rain will be in east TX and in N TX.

Got a few spritzes earlier. Thats a LOT of rain for central TX, lol.

Our chance comes at 2am, will probably get an eighth of an inch total.

Cheer up Jeb. You can move to north Texas or Oklahoma and live in one of the most eventful weather areas in the nation.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Cheer up Jeb. You can move to north Texas or Oklahoma and live in one of the most eventful weather areas in the nation.

I wish i could.

 

There has been some hype about this nino, ppl been saying that it is almost as strong as the 97-98 Nino, but this Nino is definitely not as wet as the 97-98 one was.

 

This will be an average rain winter for both Austin and Washington DC. We wont see any more rain this winter with this Nino, than we would see in an enso neutral winter.

 

Now, north Texas and East Texas will see more rain than the usual. Thats established and will be reinforced today and tonight. The Pacific Northwest is also getting annihilated by super high winds and lots of rain. I would give anything to live on the Pacific facing slopes of the mountains in Washington state right now!!!! 85 mph winds, torrential rains and devastating flooding in mainstem rivers!! And exciting mudslides!  But, I will never see any of that.

 

 

I will NEVER get to live in Dallas or in East Texas. I might get to visit once in a great while, but I will never get to live in those places. I am doomed to live in snow starved northern Virginia or in snow and rain starved Austin.

 

It's my fate, and it can't be changed, not even by God.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Looks like the storm did manage to grab extra moisture at the last minute. Amazing what a Southern track can do. I've had ~0.2" of rain here today and it looks like a line is reforming west of me. Some of the ski resorts have done fairly well too.

 

If the clouds clear a bit we can lower the dew point and get some wet bulb snow magic in the city. 

 

Albuquerque has a real shot at 11 inches of rain this year. Been a long time since we've had that in a calendar year, although we were at ~11.9" in a trailing 12 month period a few months ago, I think Aug 14-Sept 15 maybe, but I'd have to look.

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oldlogin

oldlogin

Posted
Posted

This is the third warning in the last 30 min

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CST
    
* AT 401 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CANTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...TORNADO. 
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 
 
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLS POINT...EDGEWOOD AND FRUITVALE AROUND 425 PM CST.
  LAKE TAWAKONI STATE PARK AROUND 430 PM CST.
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 516 AND 526
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

 

This is the third warning in the last 30 min

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CST
    
* AT 401 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CANTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...TORNADO. 
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 
 
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLS POINT...EDGEWOOD AND FRUITVALE AROUND 425 PM CST.
  LAKE TAWAKONI STATE PARK AROUND 430 PM CST.
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 516 AND 526

 

 

 

Wasn't really paying attention, 3 different spin ups or warnings for the same one as it raced off NE?

 

CWDpRe2WIAECiOx.png

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I got a sore finger from clicking on the refresh as I look for at least a little rain. I hope I dont get carpal tunnel, lol.

Stay safe, East Texas. Hope you guys get plenty of rain without flooding and NO tornadoes. That warm conveyor belt is an absolute FIREHOSE, blasting into eastern Oklahoma with heavy rains.

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lionman227

lionman227

Posted
Posted

received this as a response from their webmaster when I asked them about the situation:

 

There has been a rash of spoofed tornado reports using real spotter names across the country on web and social media. This is making social media and web reports difficult to use and we strongly advise reports of tornadoes be called into our office for this reason.
 
We received no other reports about this tornado and calls to local law enforcement also could not substantiate the report. We have a responsibility to confirm all reports we receive. We understand, a brief spin-up not seen on radar is not out of the question. The legitimacy of the report has become more apparent since. Being a public office, we receive lots of reports, good and bad. This places us in a difficult position, especially for something that looks as poorly as this storm did on radar. We are sorry for all the misunderstanding this has caused with the chaser community. Questioning a legitimate chaser was not out intention. 
 
Mike

 

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