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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

I love rain, and I would like to see some more :) :) :)

 

BRING ON THE STRONG NINO! LET'S MAKE IT A SUPER NINO, ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS!

 

I can see lightning from a storm that has developed over North Austin!

Bring it! Bring it! Bring on those heavy EXTREME rain rates, and let the storm STALL ALL NIGHT LONG!

HELL YEEEAAHH!!!!!!!

 

Calm down. Maybe you should lay off those energy drinks and special pills. I understand you are excited, but every post of yours is like this and it gets annoying.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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We picked up a surprise downpour earlier this evening and now there are storms firing to the NW of DFW. That area was supposed to be dry overnight with the majority of the action focused to the SE in the flood watch area. 

 

ETA: 00z 4K NAM picking up on the extra forcing and has a pretty big NW shift with precipitation over night

 

00z 

 

nam4km_apcpn_scus_8.png

 

vs. 18z

 

nam4km_apcpn_scus_10.png

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Radar continues to pop, I wonder if we will see any shifts in the flash flood watch?

 

CTKKBanWwAAjoPI.jpg

They might pop some flood watches up there, based on how the radar is developing. I am finally getting a little light rain. Later, around 2am, I received another light to moderate rain shower.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Enjoy the nice fall weather this week (besides a  stormy Veteran's Day in East Texas) as stormy and cooler weather comes next week. We may flirt with our first freeze within about 10 days depending on how things set up late next week. Though I think it will stay above freezing for most of us. It will not surprise me if we see winter precip before we see a freeze this year.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Enjoy the nice fall weather this week (besides a  stormy Veteran's Day in East Texas) as stormy and cooler weather comes next week. We may flirt with our first freeze within about 10 days depending on how things set up late next week. Though I think it will stay above freezing for most of us. It will not surprise me if we see winter precip before we see a freeze this year.

 

Yea, it looks like we will stay cool after this next system and maybe even cold the last 1/3 of the month. Moisture looks locked in, so maybe there might be some frozen potential towards the end of the month. It looks like the Panhandle should see snow for sure before the end of the month. The Sep/Oct MEI came in at 2.225 joining 1997, 1982, and 1877 as the only ones to come in at +2. Only problem, 1997 was warm in the W and cool in the E in November and 1982 was the flip. Looks like we may be more 1982 this Nov than 1997. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Even though it's been a full torch, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic. 82 and 97 are brought up because of the strength of the Nino, but the placement is different. I'm betting the low stays west of the GOA because of the more centrally based event. 97 is the worst case scenario, but even then, the storm track gave us snow in November, Christmas Night, and again in March. Nothing memorable and TBH quite slushy on all the events but it truly was a horrific pattern to get any cold air. That's the worst case. I think we'll have more cold to work with and, from what we've seen the last few weeks, an active pattern.

The other good news is that if there are any models showing the southern plains and LA with AN temps, I haven't seen them (other than the truly scary CFS. Consensus is BN on temps.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Looks like the next big storm will hit on Tuesday according to the GFS with a strong low crossing western portions of the state. It would bring heavy rain to the eastern half of the state and heavy snow to the Panhandle.

Edit: I just took a look at the 0Z GEM, wow, tons of snow for the Panhandle and a very dynamic close call for N TX.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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The models seem to be trending wetter with this next system, it will be interesting to watch this unfold over the weekend. We could see a widespread flooding threat develop. Also, no one should look at the 12z GFS 384 hr maps! 1040+ high dropping down the front range with a huge H5 cutoff over the SW...   :lol:   :snowing:

We are finally getting to the fun season for forecasting.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

The models seem to be trending wetter with this next system, it will be interesting to watch this unfold over the weekend. We could see a widespread flooding threat develop. Also, no one should look at the 12z GFS 384 hr maps! 1040+ high dropping down the front range with a huge H5 cutoff over the SW...   :lol:   :snowing:

As always, I really enjoy a good rain :)

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Even though it's been a full torch, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic. 82 and 97 are brought up because of the strength of the Nino, but the placement is different. I'm betting the low stays west of the GOA because of the more centrally based event. 97 is the worst case scenario, but even then, the storm track gave us snow in November, Christmas Night, and again in March. Nothing memorable and TBH quite slushy on all the events but it truly was a horrific pattern to get any cold air. That's the worst case. I think we'll have more cold to work with and, from what we've seen the last few weeks, an active pattern.

The other good news is that if there are any models showing the southern plains and LA with AN temps, I haven't seen them (other than the truly scary CFS. Consensus is BN on temps.

 

I keep coming back to this image and thinking there are probably no really good analogs:

 

CTZNmvQUsAA2K1n.jpg

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

Can see some pretty stout towers going up to the E of here. The ArkLaTx area looks interesting.

 

It looks a lot more linear now. With the terrible chasing terrain I'll just watch this from my computer and do homework.  :axe:

 

I was expecting the line to be through Tyler early this afternoon, with this delayed passage I may see a nice storm, the sun has been peaking through the clouds and it's warming up. The storms are moving towards better helicity, but I don't think surface winds are backed enough for a big tornado threat.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

FWD giving us teases:

 

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MUCH DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. IF THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEEP AND COLD AND COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PARTS OF ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS SINCE ANY DEVIATION IN TRACK OR INTENSITY COULD GREATLY
AFFECT THE EXPECTED WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
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