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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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These storms are inching their way farther east into areas of higher helicity, it will be interesting to see how much further development will occur and what happens to the evolution of the line as it moves east.

Looks like the area E of I35 and N of I20 might have the best combo of instability and shear. Will storms be completely lined out when reaching that area? My biggest concern is a lone cell popping SW of Dallas and moving into that area out ahead of the main line.

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
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congrats CS, Tyler is right in the middle of that developing region of rain! You'll get annihilated for at least the next 12 hours.

 

Yeah, should get a few rounds of storms. Unless it develops more to the southwest I don't think we'll end up with insane totals. We'll see what happens.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
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Yeah, should get a few rounds of storms. Unless it develops more to the southwest I don't think we'll end up with insane totals. We'll see what happens.

How far you from Corsicana? I heard they got to enjoy 21 inches of rain on October 24!!

Northeast Texas is THE PLACE to be this fall if you like rain!!!

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Jebman

Jebman

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Rain is breaking out in Missouri as well. it's pretty obvious most of the energy is well northeast of AUS. I wish I could go chase that rain so bad.

 

As of 8pm, the conveyor belt rain is washing out, as is the thin line associated with the front.

 

At this point I am expecting variable clouds all night, a sprinkle or two, the  cooler tomorrow with variable clouds.

 

I think our best chance of rain might be Saturday morning, perhaps we can eke out a tenth of an inch then before massive drying takes over.

 

I'm no meteorologist, but I can interpret radar trends. NWS better take a look at the radar trends too. I dont know where they are getting "heavy rain later tonight" from. I'd sure love some of what they have been smoking, though. Must be potent stuff. Remember, NWS promised us "heavy rain later tonight, especially 6am Thursday morning". You all down here in Austin land know how that one worked out - we barely managed to eke out a TENTH OF AN INCH of rain LMAO! The joke is squarely on YOU, National Weather Service! Then, KEWX trots out the usual model sampling excuses. Mark my words, they will blame tonight's and tomorrow morning's variably cloudy weather with a couple of sprinkles on the poor data sampling over Mexico, and on poor initialization of the models. KEWX office, I am not only reading your AFD's, I am recording them as well!

 

Now NE TX, Arkansas and Missouri are a completely different matter, they will see a good deal of rain overnight as well as thunderstorms.

 

Time to shove a fork in this down here, hell S TX was never even in the frame with this system. Maybe next week.........

 

Damn, I am really disappointed, but hey, life's full of disappointments

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Looks most everything across Tarrant County is dying behind the outflow boundary. The STEL is still at 2 across most of N. Texas E of the line according to SPC meso analysis. 

 

5bwso0.png

 

ETA: And just like that they start to make a come back and the tail end might be trying to capture the outflow boundary just S. of Ft. Worth? 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Jomo does a great job of covering the Euro Weeklies in the other thread but I will add that the pattern would suggest that DFW breaks into record yearly rainfall territory by the end of the month. The GEFS and Euro EPS also seem to back that up and look to get us close to over the hump in the next two weeks. It would be crazy to break the Total Yearly Rainfall Record in 11 Months! 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Bubba we must have been in the same location when you took that pic.  I was at DNT and 121 when I saw the exact same tower.  

 

I was on the DART in far N. Dallas County. I wish that I had a better camera on my phone or just better photography skills in general :lol:  The sky clearing out right at sunset made for some awesome views of those cells moving in.

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
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Well I don't think I ended up with an inch of rain yet, but it rained pretty hard several times. There's new convection developing just to my west, and it looks like the outflow boundary is beginning to unzip. It looks like I may be in for another round in a few hours.

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Jebman

Jebman

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Per 810PM CST KEWX AFD - Finally, National Weather Service, you are finally beginning to catch on to what i have been harping on all day long!

 

Yes, northeast TX and points farther northeast will see rainfall and storms overnight. THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND MOST OF THIS PRECEDING AFTERNOON.

 

Midnight to 3am, I might need to stay up and watch. I hope we get hit by rain, but have my doubts.

 

I see why you hold on to 1-3 inch totals, you got two models and an approaching convergence boundary approaching with a very high PW airmass in place.

 

I hope you are right about the rain tonight past midnight, but I also hope we get more than forecast.

 

I LOVE RAIN, and I never get enough. No, I don't live on the Onion Creek floodplain, lol.

 

BRING ON THE STRONG NINO! I live by that, and pray hard for heavy rain every day. I also do my Rain Dance every day, lol.

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jm1220

jm1220

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How far you from Corsicana? I heard they got to enjoy 21 inches of rain on October 24!!

Northeast Texas is THE PLACE to be this fall if you like rain!!!

Austin-Bergstrom's almost 24" of rain in 10 days last month wasn't enough? :lol:

 

Your area had 15" of rain last Friday if not more, and creeks in your area had historic crests. I've seen more than enough rain. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
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Austin-Bergstrom's almost 24" of rain in 10 days last month wasn't enough? :lol:

 

Your area had 15" of rain last Friday if not more, and creeks in your area had historic crests. I've seen more than enough rain. 

I love rain, and I would like to see some more :) :) :)

 

BRING ON THE STRONG NINO! LET'S MAKE IT A SUPER NINO, ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS!

 

I can see lightning from a storm that has developed over North Austin!

Bring it! Bring it! Bring on those heavy EXTREME rain rates, and let the storm STALL. ALL. NIGHT. LONG. !

HELL YEEEAAHH!!!!!!!

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