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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Today was just unbelievable! I have nearly fourteen inches of rain in Buda!

 

I cannot believe how high Onion Creek was today, just under the Rt 967 bridge! I have NEVER EVER seen so much water here in South Central Texas before!

 

Is this true, we are supposed to get even more rain tonight?

 

Similar scenario as last week with a stronger SJT, but no Patricia.

 

Squall line bearing down on Austin at 3 am.  Be prepared for another bout of heavy rain, but should be a more rapid moving event.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

AUS had 1.28" overnight, so that makes for an event total of 16.27" (unless I'm missing rain somewhere else). Adding this to last week's rain gets October's total up to almost TWO FEET of rain in just over one week!!!

 

The closest rain gauge to me had a little over 1.5" overnight, and an event total of 9.77". That brings my backyard up to 16.3" between both this system and remnants of Patricia last weekend.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

AUS had 1.28" overnight, so that makes for an event total of 15.81" (unless I'm missing rain somewhere else). Adding this to last week's rain gets October's total up to almost TWO FEET of rain in just over one week!!!

The closest rain gauge to me had a little over 1.5" overnight, and an event total of 9.77". That brings my backyard up to 16.3" between both this system and remnants of Patricia last weekend.

That is just crazy! Did much of that fall in the Lake Travis watershed?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

That is just crazy! Did much of that fall in the Lake Travis watershed?

Lake Travis had some of the lower (by lower, that area had 4-6") totals in the region. However, the lake's rising pretty rapidly and has gone up about 3 feet so far since the rain started yesterday. Some of the rivers feeding into it are flooded. 

 

For as bad as it was around Austin yesterday, it would have been worse had the huge totals around the airport, Kyle and San Marcos fell further northwest around the creekbeds that go through downtown. The north and west sides of town "only" had 4-6". Downtown had about 10", which flooded the Colorado River but not severely since not as much water came in from the west.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

More rain firing up near San Antonio-hopefully that stays away from us. 

 

Lots of record and top 5 crests around the area-Bastrop on the Colorado River I believe was 2nd highest ever, Barton Creek in Austin was 2nd highest ever, and Onion Creek was record highest. I drove around southeast Austin today, and there was still high water in many places. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Per Lake Charles, LA AFD:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LCH&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
716 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
 
.AVIATION...
CLDS AND RAINS TO CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....THEREFORE
CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM 005 THROUGH 025 AT TIMES WITH VSBY STEADY
DROPPING IN AREAS OF RAINS.
 
&&
 
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/
 
UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH 528 FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE
NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF CAMERON WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE ONGOING RAIN EVENT.
 
PREVIOUS FCST IS ON TRACK WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TNITE.
 
SWEENEY
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/
 
DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR TONIGHT...HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THAT REGION. SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOOK THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL SO FAR...WITH A
LARGE SWATH OF 6 TO 13 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM RADAR ESTIMATES AND
SOME RELIABLE GAUGE TRUTH IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
CAUSE RUN-OFF PROBLEMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COULD GET THOSE
AREAS TO FLASH FLOOD LEVELS.
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

We ended up getting rain most of the day but I don't think it amounted to more than 1/3 - 1/2" and it looks like another system is on tap for mid-week.  But there might be a change of pace with this system.

 

From the FWD afternoon AFD:

 

HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY
AROUND ON THURSDAY SO THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Another amusing snippet off the Shreveport, LA AFD:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SHV&issuedby=SHV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

 

IN THE WAKE OF LAST WEEK/S SLOW LOW OFF THE EAST PAC AND FLOODING
LATE MONTH TOTALS WITH PATRICIA...THE EL NINO PATTERN IS UP AND
RUNNING WIDE OPEN WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR US WITH A
GOOD START TO THE NOVEMBER BUCKET.
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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

CFS snowfall maps crushes us with 12" on week 4 followed by another 6" in week 5.   LOL.  If only.  

We can wish. El Nino should deliver us some decent snows though not sure it will be before Christmas as there is not any cold air to work with and there will not be many Arctic fronts to hurry up the process. By mid winter and into late winter the atmosphere should be cold enough on its own to produce snows from these upper lows that we keep getting.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

We can wish. El Nino should deliver us some decent snows though not sure it will be before Christmas as there is not any cold air to work with and there will not be many Arctic fronts to hurry up the process. By mid winter and into late winter the atmosphere should be cold enough on its own to produce snows from these upper lows that we keep getting.

 

Yeah.  Yesterday's upper level cold core system tracking right across the state bodes well.  It makes me hopeful that even if we don't get much in the way of arctic air, we could actually pull it down from the upper levels if the system is strong enough.  Probably would be pretty sloppy, but I'd take it.  

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

So, the previous record for latest sub 50 temps was 11/3 in 1947, 1950 and 2004.  

 

So, for laughs I thought I'd pull up the number of freezes and snowfall for all three of the following winters years (Official Station for the DFW Area (1947 and 1950 were probably Love Field):

 

Year    Freezes    Snowfall

1947   42              8.8"

1950   46              6.0"

2004   22              0.3"

 

I think 2004 was a Nino and 1947 & 1950 were Ninas.  Average number of freezes at DFW is 33.  Average Snowfall:  1.7".

 

Three samples ain't much.  

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Monday morning looks like it will be the coldest of the season so far with the GFS showing low 40s in NE Texas and 40s over all of the north half of the state. The Canadian is almost 10 degrees cooler with a freeze for Texarkana and 30s for most of the northern half of the state.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Buda dropped to 46 degrees a couple of nights ago. This location is so far into deep south Texas that i dont think we have to worry about snow here this winter.

 

We might have to be concerned with additional rain, though.

 

 

Precip is blossoming and moving NNE: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

The good news is that it will miss Austin/Buda, for now.

The bad news is that whoever is unlucky enough to be in the path of those yellow returns will soon see runoff and possible flash flooding.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Buda dropped to 46 degrees a couple of nights ago. This location is so far into deep south Texas that i dont think we have to worry about snow here this winter.

 

We might have to be concerned with additional rain, though.

 

 

Precip is blossoming and moving NE: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

My low so far has been 44.

 

South Texas snow is rare but there have been a couple big ones and a strong El Nino should offer as good of a chance as any season for a good snow all the way down there.

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