Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[DoctorMu]

It's becoming more clear that this really could be an October classic up there with 1994 and 1998.

 

1994 set the bar really high with about an inch an hour or more for 18 hours straight. (20 in IMBY)  The entraining was intense with a stronger SJT.  Still Patricia's influence is just getting ramped up..  I hope nothing like 1994 is in store, although this could give 1998 a run.  Water got into the house through the peepholes back in '94.  Since then we've moved to a home that drains away from the back door.

[jm1220]

Most locations around Austin are now at 6-7" for the event. Some isolated spots on the east and west sides of the metro area have 8-10". Looks like the steady rain should be coming to an end soon but models keep showers around for a while. 

[Jebman]

Back edge is approaching, sad to see it end BUT I am very happy i got rain. I might end up with 6.5, maybe 7. Decent totals.

Here's to hoping for late next week and another BIG rainer lol. We cant ever get enough water into that aquifer.

 

Gotta LOVE a STRONG EL NINO! I wish it was a super nino with unprecedented strength. I'd get 150 inches of rain in N VA

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS drops another 6-8" across DFW by D10! 

[jm1220]

Definitely looking like the El Nino pattern we had back in May for next weekend. STJ cuts off a low in Mexico and starts up the El Nino conveyor belt back into Texas. If this is the pattern through the winter, we'll have plenty of flood threats once again. 

[1900hurricane]

00Z rainfall update has the event total up to 6.28" for me.

[DoctorMu]

00Z rainfall update has the event total up to 6.28" for me.

 

7.25 in here on the east side.  Another 4-5+ through tomorrow afternoon.

[Jebman]

I have 7 inches in Buda.

 

Yep. Nino is back and I am sure the Pineapple Express will be in great shape.

 

I am really going to enjoy all the rain down here! i'll be doing my rain dance!

[1900hurricane]

2.74" PW in the 00Z Brownsville sounding, an October record there. Still awaiting CRP.

 

[jm1220]

Jollyville, NW of Austin has 11.2". We dodged a huge bullet with creeks-luckily they were all bone dry before today. The areas that feed into the creeks had some of the heaviest totals in the area. 

[Jebman]

the rain is NOT ending. Every time I think the back edge is about to move through, it backbuilds and keeps raining. Thanks Pat.

[jm1220]

the rain is NOT ending. Every time I think the back edge is about to move through, it backbuilds and keeps raining. Thanks Pat.

Models indicated some back building of the rain as the coastal low developed and the upper low strengthens. 

[jm1220]

GFS/NAM are re-firing rain back over I-35 for the overnight hours, maybe another half inch or so. 

 

This reminds me of the Nor'easters I tracked back on Long Island and the deformation zones/backlash with the upper lows. This is a similar kind of situation since models have the upper low closing off for a time over E TX. 

[Jebman]

Yeah we are in the deformation zone, it keeps on backbuilding . We have been raining now for 23 hours. Rain is really picking up. Man I am so happy, I can't believe I got to enjoy so much rain, and even better yet, I get to enjoy northeasterly winds gusting to 32 mph. It has dropped to 58 degrees, wind chills are in the 40s. The coastal low is driving Gulf moisture straight up into Houston and then wrapping moisture on the backside as it continues to intensify. That thing almost looks like a trowal lol!

 

This is so cool.

 

I was driving on 1626 south today down to Kyle. The low clouds were so low that they were obscuring the upper part of that tall transmission tower near 2770. I could hardly believe it! I watched those low dark clouds move so fast out of the northeast and they obscured the top of that tower! Wow!

[bubba hotep]

 

The models are starting to lock in on another round of widespread heavy rain for the end of next week. There are even hints of a repeat of this last multi day system. It looks like a potent 500mb disturbance will swing through the state with another one dropping down in the SW with signs that another EPAC system might be spinning up in between. Pretty similar to what just happened?  

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice  56m56 minutes ago

TX rains the big story: After ridiculous rainfall totals this weekend, another biblical flooding event next week!?

 

[jm1220]

Most areas around Austin had another half to three quarters of an inch of rain since midnight. Event totals now are mostly 7-9". 

[DoctorMu]

10.35 in. of rain over the 3 day period IMBY.  1.9 inches overnight.

 

 

GFS has a slightly milder precip solution for next weekend.  Still, pretty darn wet.

 

[janetjanet998]

This was the primer to destroy  the drought for the wet El Nino winter flood potential

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is 6-10"+ for the I35 corridor through D10 with another big H5 system dropping into the SW at the end of the run... 

[bubba hotep]

Just imagine if that bulls eye was shifted NW into the DFW area or if there had not been such a long dry spell leading up to this event

 

[Chinook]

Some incredible images featuring radar-estimated rain totals, CoCoRAHS measured rain totals, and 4-km NWS precip analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jhamps10]

Just imagine if that bulls eye was shifted NW into the DFW area or if there had not been such a long dry spell leading up to this event

 

agreed... It would be a disaster of epic proportions.. I believe it was a rain of that much back in the 40's that gave engineers the idea to try to control the Trinity... Montgomery Plaza in Ft Worth I believe had water halfway up to the 2nd floor...I would imagine if DFW had 20"+ with all of the concrete there is, the flooding would be massive, Loop 12, 183, heck I imagine just about every entrance into downtown Ft Worth from the south would be flooded out with as many low crossings there is with the railroad... Glad we did not get that much that's for sure.. just about all schools in Navarro county are already closed tomorrow because of the flooding down there

[1900hurricane]

Sharp words out of the gate from HGX regarding the next system

 

PRESSURES FALL TO THE WEST GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT

WESTERN STORM SYSTEM AND TROF APPROACH. HALLOWEEN WEEKEND IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AT THIS POINT & MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS ARE ACTUALLY
SHOWING A HISTORICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SE TX OCTOBER
RAINFALL EVENT (TROF TO WEST, MESSY SW FLOW ALOFT, BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER SW, FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY). WE`LL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER &
HOPE TIMING/DETAILS ARE OFF.

[DoctorMu]

Corsicana, near College Station, and Houston were the winners of this week's drought busting famine to feast.

 

 

[Quixotic1]

I don't care how much. Bring it. Chances are, next year heads into a Nina and in this PDO regime we'll be begging for it. That 15"+ May dried up quickly.

[bubba hotep]

I don't care how much. Bring it. Chances are, next year heads into a Nina and in this PDO regime we'll be begging for it. That 15"+ May dried up quickly.

 

[Quixotic1]

Ha! I'll take it, though my mower might not have one more mow left in it.

In all seriousness, these systems remind me of the Ninos back in the day when the term started gaining notoriety with the public. Particularly 91-92. My fervent hope though is that we get something to 2002-03.

[Fergal]

Some amazing 24-hr totals in the Houston area up yo yesterday


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HYD&issuedby=HGX

[TXWXCHX]

***I don't care how much. Bring it. Chances are, next year heads into a Nina and in this PDO regime we'll be begging for it. That 15"+ May dried up quickly***

-----

This statement proves you are a Texan. Anyone who has lived here long enough eventually experiences a drought and hears about the epic drought of the 1950s. This is the nature of the Weather Beast in Texas; scorching heat and burning dryness, followed by brutal cold and massive rainfall. There is no happy medium except for two seperate periods, lasting only a few days MOST years; these are called "Fall" and "Spring"...

and they will have tornadoes.

[jhamps10]

***I don't care how much. Bring it. Chances are, next year heads into a Nina and in this PDO regime we'll be begging for it. That 15"+ May dried up quickly***

-----

This statement proves you are a Texan. Anyone who has lived here long enough eventually experiences a drought and hears about the epic drought of the 1950s. This is the nature of the Weather Beast in Texas; scorching heat and burning dryness, followed by brutal cold and massive rainfall. There is no happy medium except for two seperate periods, lasting only a few days MOST years; these are called "Fall" and "Spring"...

and they will have tornadoes.

So so true... Ive only lived here for 2.5 years and it's so so true to say the least