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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Hmmm, NAM Is really going to town tomorrow on the interaction between the front and remnants of Patricia tomorrow for central/south central TX and drops 4"+ before heading east. It seems to draw on the coastal feature developing a little west of previous runs and nailing I-35. 4k NAM has 8-10"+ over Austin north to around Temple. I guess we'll see but tomorrow has a huge hill to climb to get us to some of the rain totals thrown around. 

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

My parents are stranded outside Corsicana. 45 closed so got off and on high area stuck now on a side road. 13" I heard there so far today.

 

 

at least .01 inch 0f Rainfall measured the past 18 straight hours with many more hours to go..heavy thunderstorms moving back into the city

 

13.57 as of 10 pm

 

best shot at 20 inches from this system i think

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

GFS ramping back up for tomorrow around Austin down to San Antonio. Patricia seems to want to head more west before shifting east towards Houston/Louisiana. The front's also making some small steps south on radar. Lampasas/San Saba area getting nailed the last few hours-hopefully that heads into Lake Travis and finally gets it to full for the first time since 2010. 

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

at least .01 inch 0f Rainfall measured the past 18 straight hours with many more hours to go..heavy thunderstorms moving back into the city

 

13.57 as of 10 pm

 

best shot at 20 inches from this system i think

 

.40 inches last hour 13.97 now

 

very heavy rain now over the city  likely another 1 inch next hr

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I would like it very much if Pat would please drop in on me in Buda, I want to get drowned by relentless torrential rain. I'd like that boundary and Pat to get together and do a professional gig in the Austin/Buda region for a couple of days.

 

Better yet, do a gig then drift around for a couple of weeks, my plants need a drink!

 

One thing I'd like to know: How is it with so many ingredients around for rain, plus the fact that we have a STRONG Nino, How is it that we have such a damned hard time getting decent rains?

 

Are we just plain unlucky?

 

I hope Pat's moisture plus the boundary NAILS us with severe torrential rains over the next 36 to 60 hours!

 

I CRAVE RAIN!

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Someone asked me earlier why I think this may be a kind of bust.

Its a gut feeling really. Its got too many moving parts. Its been hyped to the max on tv too.

If this was just a low moving out of Mexico that was going to give us a day of stratiform rain, about an inch, I'd say we got a 100 percent chance.

I already am starting to suspect Austin might be lucky to get a couple of inches. If tomorrow is like today was, then that will probably be what happens. Dallas will probably end up with 6 inches of rain. I am kind of expecting to wake up to partly cloudy skies, 87 degrees with a 76 degree dewpoint and a southeasterly breeze.

Its too bad really, too bad that this thing can't spread a good 3-4 inches statewide over say four days, soak in good. Instead, Houston might end up going 2001 all over again, while other places wind up dry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Okay, not as bad as Allison in 2001, but I think Houston could wind up with 22 inches from this when all is said and done.

Hmmm.. Looks like your area is under a Flash flood warning along with Austin Texas. 6 inches of rain around the Austin area. Not even close to done. The NWS knows what their doing. O think you were expecting it to start earlier or something. The models were all consistently showing what is happening now.
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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

seeing some of the radar-estimates on the storm totals to this point, you guys are getting drenched down there. hope you're holding up. but i'll post below the radar estimated storm totals as of 13z, so at least everyone is on the same page, as I am sure you all are. and yes, I do have up to 20" as a possibility on mine, which got topped with the mess in SC a couple of weeks ago. but I'm not going above 20. but the Ft Hood Radar is the closest to that 20" marker with the 18-20" between Waco and Corsicana.

 

San Angelo...

 

post-2758-0-39513400-1445692306_thumb.pn

 

Dyess AFB / Abilene

 

post-2758-0-45104900-1445692338_thumb.pn

 

Laughlin AFB / Del Rio

 

post-2758-0-06484700-1445692372_thumb.pn

 

New Braunfels / San Antonio

 

post-2758-0-22685000-1445692414_thumb.pn

 

and Ft Hood/Killeen/Temple

 

post-2758-0-06538200-1445692453_thumb.pn

 

hopefully you find yourself and compare radar to reality.

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

...


 

hopefully you find yourself and compare radar to reality

 

...

 

Thank you Jim; your radar precip totals verify for Limestone, with trained spotter official gauge readings of 4.80" in Central Limestone and trained spotter non-standard gauge reading of 9.625" in NW :Limestone. It actually underestimates totals for S Limestone. with trained spotter official gauge reading of 3.75" in S Limestone...

 

I appreciate you taking the time to verify the data - it's been a little intense in Navarro and surrounding counties...

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Steady rain with possible entraining as the day progresses.  Over 2 in in CLL and over 3 in of rain in Austin have accumulated so far.  The focus for Patricia moisture and front trigger moving towards south central Texas from north Texas.  Forecast appears to be bearing out in general for north and central Texas.  Whether Patricia remnants merge as a coastal low remains to be seen.

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

Closest reporting station to me has 4.06" for the event, about 3.5" since midnight. 

 

This is a good site to keep track of Austin rain totals:

 

http://kxan.com/weather/austin-area-rainfall-totals/

 

Lake Travis is up about half a foot today:

 

http://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/

any drainage or other problems over at COTA? because qualifying today is looking like full-wet tires (or as david hobbs called them, monsoon tires). it can't be a good day for the fans unless underneath a covered grandstand or in the luxury suites.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

any drainage or other problems over at COTA? because qualifying today is looking like full-wet tires (or as david hobbs called them, monsoon tires). it can't be a good day for the fans unless underneath a covered grandstand or in the luxury suites.

Not that I've heard. I don't think it's near any real problem areas. 

 

This is a good site to keep track of:

 

https://www.atxfloods.com/

 

We've had quite a bit of rain today but it's not like Memorial Day, when 5"+ of rain fell across much of the city with already saturated ground. Right now we're in a break and it's pretty much just drizzle. 

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Hmmm.. Looks like your area is under a Flash flood warning along with Austin Texas. 6 inches of rain around the Austin area. Not even close to done. The NWS knows what their doing. O think you were expecting it to start earlier or something. The models were all consistently showing what is happening now.

 

The models nailed it.  This is an extremely serious situation as trough, cold front, Patricia, and coastal low merging.  this is just the beginning.

 

Flooding not just likely, but virtually imminent for many in SE and south central Texas.

 

http://forums.khou.com/download/file.php?id=10068&t=1

 

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/NTP/EWX_loop.gif

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I would say we are at right around 6.5" here so far. At the moment the band has shifted north some so I am just getting light rain. Looks like there will not be too many big busts from this set of systems across the state.

 

The interesting thing is that the models busted pretty hard on Thursday by overdoing precipitation. Ultimately, the good old fashion GFS/Euro blend worked out the best. That was pretty widespread 4-6" totals but it highlighted the potential for areas to get a lot more. 

 

The models are starting to lock in on another round of widespread heavy rain for the end of next week. There are even hints of a repeat of this last multi day system. It looks like a potent 500mb disturbance will swing through the state with another one dropping down in the SW with signs that another EPAC system might be spinning up in between. Pretty similar to what just happened?  

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

The interesting thing is that the models busted pretty hard on Thursday by overdoing precipitation. Ultimately, the good old fashion GFS/Euro blend worked out the best. That was pretty widespread 4-6" totals but it highlighted the potential for areas to get a lot more. 

 

The models are starting to lock in on another round of widespread heavy rain for the end of next week. There are even hints of a repeat of this last multi day system. It looks like a potent 500mb disturbance will swing through the state with another one dropping down in the SW with signs that another EPAC system might be spinning up in between. Pretty similar to what just happened?

I LOVE A STRONG NINO!

 

I sure hope so!! I'd love a repeat of this late next week! Its something to look forward to, and can you even begin to imagine how eminently EPIC that would be in terms of Onion Creek water levels?!!!!

 

That would be Epicosity, Texas style. Eat your heart out, weathafella in the Northeast lol!

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

While I am grateful for the rain I have received, I cant help but be green with jealousy of Houston. I just KNOW they are gonna cash in with 20 inches of rain and all that sweet flooding! They'll also get to enjoy water rescues too. Patricia is gonna stomp hell out of Houston. I wish I could do a storm chase down there.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

I have an event total of 4.30" at my place in College Station as of 1:32 pm. Remember that time is basically didn't rain from mid-June until now? How bad would the flooding be if that didn't happen?

 

5.2 in tally on the east side of town IMBY. Probably only halfway there.  We had only 1.6 in since July 4.

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