Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quixotic1]

4+" imby.  Bring it.  This is a Nino from yesteryear.  

[Jebman]

I realize this is NOT going to happen in Buda, the coastal prairies are going to get at least a foot of water, but one thing I really wanted was for Buda to get about 15 inches because I want to see the Onion Creek rise up to the bridge, at 967. I LOVE FLOODS. The only thing I like better than severe floods, is extreme cold weather with high winds and torrential snow.

Damn you Patricia for intensifying into a Cat 5 hurricane. That changed things, ironically lessening how much rain I get, while piling it on the coastal prairies in thousands of spades.

 

I'll enjoy my inch of rain.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS appears to have missed most of the current rainfall across Tarrant, Dallas, Denton and Collin counties and it still drops another 4 to 7" across the area by tomorrow night. If that verifies, then there will be some issues for sure.

ETA: DFW airport is at about 4.5" so far, so the 12z GFS would bring the storm total close to 10"

[DoctorMu]

We received more rain early this am (1.85 in) than we've had total since July 4!

 

 

Pat will be looking for vengeance after she is torn to shreds by the mountains in Mexico.

[Jebman]

Wow Hurricane Patricia is a 200 mph Cat 5 hurricane? I just saw it on Twitter!

 

This is a storm-chasing job for Josh! I hope he is chasing it!

 

They say it underwent historic explosive deepening and strengthened from a tropical storm to Cat 5 in only 24 hours!!!!!!

 

All that moisture is headed for Texas.

 

If I lived in Houston I'd be getting the hell outa Dodge right now!

[jhamps10]

Some folks south of ft worth in Johnson County already have nearly 8" all together (unofficial, probably someone's rain gage posted to dfw scanner on Facebook) but if this is true and the radar doesn't doubt it IMHO, then I really think they could top that 1' rainfall mark before were done Sunday morning

[Terpeast]

Not much yet in Houston. Few sprinkles. But starting tomorrow afternoon, boy that's gonna change.

[SN_Lover]

It's gonna be bad for yall in TX. A hurricane of this magnitude and a ULL means crazy flooding. Maybe Allison like in magnitude. Seeing interstates already having to be closed....

[aggiegeog]

Narrow band of very heavy rain has set up between Waco and Texarkana for today. I am not getting much at all in downtown Tyler but 10 miles NW is seeing 1"/hr plus.

[jhamps10]

Narrow band of very heavy rain has set up between Waco and Texarkana for today. I am not getting much at all in downtown Tyler but 10 miles NW is seeing 1"/hr plus.

Yeah, Reed timmer is in Corsicana, they've had nearly 6" just today alone.. Flooding in underpasses etc down that way

[jm1220]

Sun is peeking out here in Austin. Most in the area have 0.25" or less so far. We're going to need a monster day tomorrow to catch up to even the low end of the predictions. NWS has us in the 5-10" rain swath still.

New Euro has the split-4" total around Austin, more in two swaths in N TX and the Gulf Coast, up to 10" there.

[jm1220]

East side of Austin near the airport's been getting nailed for a while. Nada here on the west side yet until you're near Lake Travis.

[jhamps10]

The trinity in downtown Dallas is a real river again...

https://twitter.com/briancurtisnbc5/status/657651568938889216

[Roy]

Nice lull in the action, but plenty of rain so far. Poured really nicely for awhile this morning. Another 2 inches since midnight, so roughly around 4 total so far here in North Fort Worth. Definitely see 6 as a good bet.

[jhamps10]

Nice lull in the action, but plenty of rain so far. Poured really nicely for awhile this morning. Another 2 inches since midnight, so roughly around 4 total so far here in North Fort Worth. Definitely see 6 as a good bet.

At least... The lull is going to come to an end soon probably in the next 45 minutes or so looking at the radar... The fire hose is starting to move back towards the metro now, and is developing pretty quickly into a little train

[jm1220]

Finally some downpours here on the west side. Places just south of the airport in eastern Hays County have estimated 3-5" on radar already.

[janetjanet998]

Corsicana was just shy of 10 inches as of 3pm

[Jebman]

We have about half an inch.

 

My forecast is on track for 1-2 inches by late tomorrow night.

 

Not bad for a guy who has only visited S TX.

 

I dont like to be an alarmist........

 

5-10 inches my arse nws, I need to get a job in meteorology down here, I'll set em straight lol

 

Sun is back out again, reminds me of yesterday with variable clouds, sun, and a light shower

[janetjanet998]

per RUC and current trader trends:  dangerous flooding situation seems to be developing overnight for the metroplex especially I-35 south

[bubba hotep]

That line is slowly lifting north as the radar fills in from the west. It will be interesting to see how far north this sets up tonight. The 4k NAM has been on thr NE side of guidance the last 24 hrs and the Euro to the SE side. Current trends actually seem to favor the 18z 4k NAM.

[Jebman]

That area north of AUS but just to the south of Dallas looks to reach the 4 to 8 criterion. i think some places up there might approach a foot.

 

Variable cloudiness continues in Buda. Light winds.

 

If you're weary of flooding, come visit us. You'll be safe here. We're protected by the legendary Buda Split. Patricia won't even try to hit Buda, and the jet streams and coastal lows and extremely deep amplified troughs all know their place. We'll get a couple of inches by Sunday night, and we will be in great shape to go rescue all the fine folks who will be four stories deep in floodwaters in Dallas, Houston and elsewhere in this great state.

[NTXYankee]

per RUC and current trader trends: dangerous flooding situation seems to be developing overnight for the metroplex especially I-35 south

Going to play dumb card here as not a Texas native but what is meant south of 35 in metroplex? That is a north/south running interstate so curious. Do you mean south of the East/West split near Denton? I have heard this used before so figure I would get the question answered since it may impact me on the north side.

[canderson]

My parents are stranded outside Corsicana. 45 closed so got off and on high area stuck now on a side road. 13" I heard there so far today.

[janetjanet998]

Going to play dumb card here as not a Texas native but what is meant south of 35 in metroplex? That is a north/south running interstate so curious. Do you mean south of the East/West split near Denton? I have heard this used before so figure I would get the question answered since it may impact me on the north side.

meant I-20 

[jhamps10]

Here in SW Ft Worth we are getting rains just as heavy as last night, and it looks like the radar shows it training a little ways back,at least 30 miles or more, that'll put down probably a solid 1-2" of rain in that band alone

[Jebman]

I have been watching that radar most of today.

Dallas and NE TX is where most of the rain has been most of today. Its a good bet some places up there will accumulate fifteen inches of rain before midnight central time.

 

Must be some sort of boundary there which is focusing all of the tropical moisture. Until that coastal low gets going tomorrow, and/or that boundary sags south, its a good bet Corsicana, Dallas/Ft. Worth and places in between will continue to experience soaking rains and tallies will increase.

 

Meanwhile, a SE breeze continues in Buda with variable cloudiness. I'm sure we will pass yet another night with some drizzle or perhaps a light shower or two, and we shall see what tomorrow brings - likely more of the same.

 

I might even have to halve my predictions, lol. We're running out of time to eke out a couple of inches of rain, heavy rain will be well east of the metros by 7pm CST tomorrow night per latest KEWX AFD.

IF WE EVER SEE ANY HEAVY RAIN, lmao. Remember the forecast called for heavy rain Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, Friday night, tomorrow. 

 

Incredible forecast for Austin/Buda.

[bubba hotep]

I need to get a rain gauge... but I think we are pushing past 6" IMBY. The creek behind us is out of the bank and flooding the field. 

[jhamps10]

I need to get a rain gauge... but I think we are pushing past 6" IMBY. The creek behind us is out of the bank and flooding the field. 

 

where at in the county are you again??? 

[bubba hotep]

where at in the county are you again??? 

 

South central Collin not too far from the lake. 

[jm1220]

I have been watching that radar most of today.

Dallas and NE TX is where most of the rain has been most of today. Its a good bet some places up there will accumulate fifteen inches of rain before midnight central time.

 

Must be some sort of boundary there which is focusing all of the tropical moisture. Until that coastal low gets going tomorrow, and/or that boundary sags south, its a good bet Corsicana, Dallas/Ft. Worth and places in between will continue to experience soaking rains and tallies will increase.

 

Meanwhile, a SE breeze continues in Buda with variable cloudiness. I'm sure we will pass yet another night with some drizzle or perhaps a light shower or two, and we shall see what tomorrow brings - likely more of the same.

 

I might even have to halve my predictions, lol. We're running out of time to eke out a couple of inches of rain, heavy rain will be well east of the metros by 7pm CST tomorrow night per latest KEWX AFD.

IF WE EVER SEE ANY HEAVY RAIN, lmao. Remember the forecast called for heavy rain Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, Friday night, tomorrow. 

 

Incredible forecast for Austin/Buda.

The frontal boundary, and the focus for the thunderstorm activity, is stalled close to the Dallas area. That's why we've been much drier than they've been. It was almost partly cloudy where I am at sunset, and I've seen maybe 10 minutes worth of moderate or better rain from this.

 

I'm surprised the NWS still has 5-10" of rain widespread down here. I'm sure we'll have heavy rain tomorrow, but it's pushing east with the developing coastal low, and today disappointed for most of the area besides a small area around the airport and south of there. The model predictions that gave us 7-10" of rain this week started off with a couple of inches today and it didn't happen for 95% of the Austin area. Most are below one inch so far, many even below a half inch. I'm finding it hard to believe we get into the NWS range unless a band of storms trains over us for several hours. I'm thinking we mostly end up with 3-4" total, which is good for a dent in the drought but nowhere near the drought-buster being advertised this week.