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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Dan Henry on Fox 4 said the short term models were showing more rain across the metro than was forecasted tonight, said he may be raising his forecast but didn't give any numbers yet.... course haven't had the full weather yet either...

 

I just glanced at the 18z GFS and it cut back totals a good bit from 12z. The afternoon Hi-res models were all over the place and mostly out to lunch. I don't think we will see too much more eastward propagation tonight, looks like the fire hose is setting up right over DFW. 

 

2e2jts2.png

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Austin local stations are hyping this big time:

 

http://kxan.com/2014/02/25/daily-forecast-2/

 

:lol: at showing the model with 16-18" of rain on screen (I remember the NYC media hyping Nemo in 2013 with a 27" spot in Central Park based on "a model" when there ended up being about 11" there), and showing a 10-14" zone as "the NWS projection", when the NWS flood watches say 4-8" with locally 10-12" areawide (already more than enough to show people that this should be a major rain event). 

 

Sad to say, but the local media is just about the worst to rely on when it comes to these threats. If Burnet County gets 2 or 3" of rain from this when KXAN had them at 10-14" because the heaviest rain trained 30 miles away from there, the average viewer will disregard them the next time a real threat happens. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Austin local stations are hyping this big time:

 

http://kxan.com/2014/02/25/daily-forecast-2/

 

:lol: at showing the model with 16-18" of rain on screen (I remember the NYC media hyping Nemo in 2013 with a 27" spot in Central Park based on "a model" when there ended up being about 11" there), and showing a 10-14" zone as "the NWS projection", when the NWS flood watches say 4-8" with locally 10-12" areawide (already more than enough to show people that this should be a major rain event). 

 

Sad to say, but the local media is just about the worst to rely on when it comes to these threats. If Burnet County gets 2 or 3" of rain from this when KXAN had them at 10-14" because the heaviest rain trained 30 miles away from there, the average viewer will disregard them the next time a real threat happens. 

Per that article, I get 5-7, and the heavy heavy rain is well north. Now, slash that in half and thats probably what we will end up with lol

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Per that article, I get 5-7, and the heavy heavy rain is well north. Now, slash that in half and thats probably what we will end up with lol

I just think it's wrong to show a 10-14" area period and represent that as the "NWS projection" when that's not what the NWS is predicting (or the larger 7-10" area), and with the knowledge that a system like this won't drop rain like that in a huge zone like that. Some people will probably have 12" "around" Austin, some people will have 6", some people might have 3". That's why the NWS office here responsibly said 4-8" areawide, with locally 10-12" to account for areas that get nailed. Maybe KXAN was going off the HPC 3-day map which had a 13" bullseye north of Austin?

 

I'm just remembering the miscommunications between the media, NWS and local officials when Sandy hit my backyard and the chaos that caused, along with more trivial examples like Nemo and last winter Juno, and hoping it doesn't create more confusion with this event or in the future when another disaster hits. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Also, in other news... Patricia just became a Cat 5 hurricane

 

https://t.co/qE402jATDW

 

Just crazy,

 

Patricia is estimated to have

intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a

category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat,

with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite

era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing

southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday

afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous

hurricane through landfall. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I'll be here in Buda, Texas thru Dec 15. Been here since April 29. May was fun.

If it makes you feel any better, the hi-res NAM is finally coming to Earth and showing heavy rain east of the far Hill Country, with an 8-10" max around Austin down to Hays County. The regular NAM gives us the split with Part 1 of the heavy rain hitting Fort Worth down to the Edwards Plateau, and then part 2 consolidating around the Gulf Coast and giving Houston tons of rain and us on I-35 2" or less. Poor San Antonio might have to make do with less than one inch.  :(

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

GFS-congrats DFW area down to the Edwards Plateau, rain will pivot around between tonight and when the main show with Patricia's remnants start. 10" spot near the Red River at 51 hrs. Rain really gets going around Austin and south Texas Saturday morning and lasts all day Saturday with well over 4" (that's as high as the PSU model site goes) throughout south/central TX by Sunday morning. I'm thinking this trend towards a semi-tropical Gulf low near Houston could be real, and that area and down the Gulf coast could be headed for the biggest drenching of anyone when this is all done. That low could get cut off and rain over SE TX and LA for quite a while. 

 

I could see there being a "splitsville" area between where the rain from the mid level troughs maxes out and the rain on the Gulf Coast from the coastal low/remnants of Patricia, where huge amounts are thrown out now but it ends up being very pedestrian. "Pedestrian" means maybe a few inches over 2 days, vs 12" in less than a day which could cause huge flooding problems. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Someone asked me earlier why I think this may be a kind of bust.

 

Its a gut feeling really. Its got too many moving parts. Its been hyped to the max on tv too.

 

If this was just a low moving out of Mexico that was going to give us a day of stratiform rain, about an inch, I'd say we got a 100 percent chance.

 

I already am starting to suspect Austin might be lucky to get a couple of inches. If tomorrow is like today was, then that will probably be what happens. Dallas will probably end up with 6 inches of rain. I am kind of expecting to wake up to partly cloudy skies, 87 degrees with a 76 degree dewpoint and a southeasterly breeze.

 

Its too bad really, too bad that this thing can't spread a good 3-4 inches statewide over say four days, soak in good. Instead, Houston might end up going 2001 all over again, while other places wind up dry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

 

Okay, not as bad as Allison in 2001, but I think Houston could wind up with 22 inches from this when all is said and done.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Great timing for the FWD Nexrad to go down.... Focus on the TDWR's at DFW and Love until further notice

 

146
NOUS64 KFWD 230655
FTMFWS
Message Date: Oct 23 2015 07:13:25

THE FORT WORTH 88D HAS BECOME INOPERABLE DUE TO AN ANTENNA PROBLEM. TECHNICIANS
ARE BEING NOTIFIED OF THE PROBLEM. UNKNOWN RESTORATION TIME. ALTERNATE RADARS
INCLUDE THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND DALLAS LOVE TERMINAL DOPPLERS WHICH BOTH PROD
UCE LONG RANGE REFLECTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS. /DUNN/

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Well, this was very uneventful overnight. Only .60 of an inch of rain. This definitely is going to be a bust unless tonight delivers.

Not a bust in terms of multi-inch rains....will get that. But, not the drama being promoted by TV.

The pictures of flooding by white Rock Creek in Dallas I saw on Twitter beg to differ on uneventful... I don't see how it can be called a bust when the forecasters at all the stations said that last night there was little flooding risk thanks to how dry it has been... That flooding was more likely tonight and into tomorrow.... Then again yesterday afternoon you were already calling it a bust based off of radar.... And then by midnight I saw reports of nearly 3" in Keller....

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Oh, I was looking at the down radar estimates. Nevermind. Yeah, we got a lot where I am (very close to Keller). More is coming up from the south now as well.

 

I just understood that last night close to morning was supposed to be the biggest part of the first wave after tonight's main show. 

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Oh, I was looking at the down radar estimates. Nevermind. Yeah, we got a lot where I am (very close to Keller). More is coming up from the south now as well.

I just understood that last night close to morning was supposed to be the biggest part of the first wave after tonight's main show.

Yup, just started here in West ft worth.... Yay for the t having a shelter at the bus stop I use... Id be a sitting duck otherwise with the lightning lol

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

I guess I was just off on the timing a bit.....the forecasts I see now are talking about lots of rain today still, so I guess there was a bit of a lull earlier. It is raining so hard I can hear it on the school roof, and I am on the first floor.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Fwd back on line... And I see the firehose getting set up across west-central TX south of abilene... Starting to think the heaviest across North TX ends up along a Stephenville/Granbury/Cleburne/Dallas line... Probably 20-30 miles either side of that line... I would not be shocked if someone ends up with 10 or even 11" as some areas already have 4-5" in that particular line

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I think it's pretty clear that the widespread very high rain totals from this will be close to the Gulf Coast. Even though at the surface Patricia will be torn up, at the mid and upper levels it will still be very potent, and when combined with the surface low near the Gulf Coast, it will pull the heaviest rain there. Hopefully we still get enough here to meaningfully help the drought. The Euro last night still had 5" or more rain for most of the I-35 corridor, but I suspect the trend towards the Gulf coast isn't done.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

WE have very light rain, about 7 hundredths of an inch. Looks like Buda might get 1-2 inches. Folks well east and northeast are gonna drown.

 

Not us. No floods for Austin.

 

Congrats to North Texas and Oklahoma. They got a decent soaking up there. We'll eke out an inch, dry out in a couple days, and enjoy our burnt grounds.

 

What "strong" El Nino?

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I always hated setups with a lot of moving parts.

 

Lets have a front move thru into all this humidity, train a few thunderstorms over us, quick 5-6 inches, I'd take that.

 

There's a reason 8 inch rains are rare here. Texas is dry by definition. Thats one reason trees are so short here lol. Brutal hot summers and not enough rain.

 

One more thing: Heavy rains in Buda are almost never forecast. When we do get a lot of heavy rain, it wont be forecast.

 

I'm laughing at KXAN for hyping the hell out of this so-called 7-10 inch rainstorm!

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

GFS and NAM both have the "split" in the heavy rain I mentioned last night and don't even get us to 3" on I-35 south from roughly Temple. The rain models have for this morning is greatly underperforming down here too-I've only had a couple of showers so far. If all we get is a passing round of mod to heavy rain tomorrow, I don't see how we get more than a run of the mill rain event of more than 2". Too bad, because most of us are in extreme or worse drought now.

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